UFC Kansas City Hot Prospect Pick
Missouri natives are in for a treat as the UFC returns to Kansas City this weekend, and it’s Max Holloway versus Arnold Allen taking center stage for the evening’s main event.
We’re back with another hot prospect of the week betting pick to take advantage of at U.S. betting sites, as we believe one of our fighters will own a huge advantage in the cardiovascular department.
Continue reading for our UFC Kansas City betting guide and best UFC picks, taking a first look at TJ Brown and his opponent, Bill Algeo.
UFC Kansas City Information
- When: Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT
- Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen [UFC Featherweight Bout]
Bill Algeo: Hot Prospect Profile
- Pro MMA Record: 16-7-0 (7 KO, 4 decisions)
- UFC Record: 3-3 (1 KO, 2 decisions)
Algeo, 33, isn’t a spring chicken by any means, but with a 3-3 UFC record since joining the promotion in 2020, it’s hard to gauge whether the Pennsylvania native is entering his prime or those days have already passed him.
He isn’t a world-beater and doesn’t own a flashy highlight reel or any spectacular stoppages inside the distance, but you know exactly what you’re getting when laying money down on Bill Algeo.
He’s relatively young in his UFC career. Still, from a betting perspective, his durability, heart, toughness, and varied skillset have always kept our tickets live until the judges intervened. Losses to Ricardo Lamas, Ricardo Ramos, and Andre Fili bare no shame, and when faced with a lower level of competition, he always comes out on top.
TJ Brown vs. Bill Algeo: The Fight Tape
A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu long serviced Algeo’s career before he reached the UFC. Still, in recent years he’s displayed a commendable striking offense with high volume, noteworthy defuses such as head movement, and, more importantly, an ability to switch stances.
Whether orthodox or southpaw, Algeo will throw down with his opponent. He hasn’t been stopped via strikes during his 23-fight professional career because a high-output striking offense is a crucial part of his fighting style that doesn’t give the opposition much space or time to plan a fight-ending counter-offensive.
His wrestling is serviceable, but versus an opponent such as TJ Brown (17-9-0), he’ll be severely outclassed in this area of the fight. It’s almost guaranteed he will get this fight to the ground. He’s relentless in this aspect and has a noteworthy blast double-leg takedown.
However, cardio has consistently been an issue for Brown. Unless he stops this fight within five minutes, the energetic wrestling offensive he displays in round one will be non-existent for the remainder of the fight.
Given Algeo’s exceptional durability, long-lasting cardio, BJJ skills, and superior technical striking compared to Brown, this fight will likely be a lopsided affair if the underdog spam a grappling offense like we expect him to.
Bill Algeo Moneyline (-180): The Betting Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Algeo as the rightful favorite, and although the line is slightly wider than I would’ve liked, it’s one of my most confident picks based on the lackluster efforts of Brown once his gas tank is drained.
Outside of his wrestling, Brown is nothing more than a power striker that throws winging hooks and haymakers. This won’t match the more technical striking style of Algeo, and the output and significant strikes in the latter rounds could very well stop the wrestler from making it to the final bell.
UFC Pick: Bill Algeo ML (-180) [1.80u to win 1.25u] at BetOnline
UFC Kansas City Main Card & Odds
- Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen [UFC featherweight bout]
- Edson Barboza vs. Billy Quarantillo [UFC co-main featherweight bout]
- Dustin Jacoby vs. Azamat Murzakanov [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Ion Cutelaba vs. Tanner Boser [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Pedro Munhoz vs. Chris Gutierrez [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Clay Guida vs. Rafa Garcia [UFC lightweight bout]
UFC Kansas City Preliminary Card & Odds
- TJ Brown vs. Bill Algeo [UFC featherweight bout]
- Brandon Royval vs. Matheus Nicolau [UFC flyweight bout]
- Ed Herman vs. Zak Cummings [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Piera Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Lando Vannata vs. Daniel Zellhuber [UFC lightweight bout]
- Bruna Brasil vs. Denise Gomes [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Gaston Bolanos vs. Aaron Phillips [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Joselyne Edwards vs. Lucie Pudilova [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
*The pick reflects the line when the writer made the play; the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, do not forget to refer to our live odds.