UFC Kansas City First Look: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen Odds and Analysis

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UFC First Look fight

Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Kansas City

Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen: Over 4.5 Rounds (-125) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Over 4.5 Rounds (-125)
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For the first time since Johnson vs. Reis in April 2017, the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Kansas City, Missouri, as fighting fans of the Show-Me State will be gifted with a main event banger for the ages.

Former UFC featherweight king Max Holloway makes his long-awaited return to the octagon and will face Great Britain’s rising prospect Arnold Allen in the main event of the evening.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Kansas City main event bout between Holloway and Allen, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

UFC Kansas City Information

  • When: Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT
  • Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
  • Scheduled Bouts: 14
  • Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen [UFC Featherweight Bout]
  • Moneyline Probability: Holloway – 62.1% (-164) / Allen – 41% (+144)
  • Totals Probability: Over 4.5 – 55.6% (-125) / Under 4.5 – 49.3% (+103)

UFC Kansas City Holloway vs. Allen: Tale of the Tape

Max “Blessed” Holloway

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Reach: 70”
  • Nationality: United States
  • Affiliation: Gracie Technics
  • Current Streak: 7 wins
  • Pro MMA Record: 23-7-0
  • UFC Record: 19-7 [9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 8 decisions]
  • Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): +160 (win), -720 (win), -155 (win)

Arnold “Almighty” Allen

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Reach: 69”
  • Nationality: United Kingdom
  • Affiliation: Tristar Gym/BKK Fighters
  • Current Streak: 12 wins
  • Pro MMA Record: 19-1-0
  • UFC Record: 10-0 [2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 6 decisions]
  • Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): -115 (win), -120 (win), +115 (win)

UFC Kansas City Main Event Profiles

Max Holloway

Max “Blessed” Holloway, the man that’s competed in 26 UFC bouts and has never delivered a boring performance. He’s landed 2,975 significant strikes during his UFC career, 1,100 more than the next closest statistic in this category. Just let that sink in for a moment.

Regarding output and technical striking ability, Holloway owns a once-in-a-lifetime fighter, and it takes a special type of opponent to stop him in his tracks. Evidence of this is that former lightweight king Dustin Poirier and current pound-for-pound great Alexander Volkanovski are the only two fighters to defeat Holloway within the last decade.

Max Holloway Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Featherweight Champion (One time, three defenses)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
  • UFC Knockout of the Night (One time)
  • UFC Fight of the Night (Five times)
  • Most wins in UFC featherweight history (18)
  • Most significant strikes landed in UFC history (2975)

Max Holloway Best Moneyline Odds: -164 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Arnold Allen

While much of the British fighter hype has focused on Paddy Pimblett during the past 24 months, I think it’s time to start taking note of Arnold Allen – the Englishman currently riding a 10-fight win streak in the UFC.

After making it through Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Hooker, and Calvin Kattar, Allen finally received some of the recognition he deserved. Although a handful of his past fights have provided iffy performances, he’s unquestionably improving from fight to fight. He has the opportunity to grant himself a title opportunity this weekend by claiming victory over the No.2-ranked featherweight.

Arnold Allen Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Middleweight Champion (One time, five defenses)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Five times)
  • UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)

Arnold Allen Best Moneyline Odds: +144 at BetOnline

UFC Kansas City Main Event Fight Statistics

  • Holloway lands 7.24 significant strikes per minute
  • Allen absorbs 2.25 significant strikes per minute
  • Allen owns a 67% striking defense
  • Holloway absorbs 4.89 significant strikes per minute

UFC Kansas City Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

Despite winning most of his UFC bouts via decision, this won’t be the path to victory for Arnold Allen this weekend. And as we witnessed during the Dan Hooker fight, the Brit owns an unruly amount of KO power that will likely be his saving grace to avoid being outworked by Holloway on Saturday.

There are no complications in Holloway’s fighting style; he isn’t a grappling fan but is excellent at defending takedowns. Allen is strong at grappling against the cage and will undoubtedly own a power advantage. Still, Holloway’s lateral movement and footwork don’t allow me to believe the former champ will be in this position much.

Holloway works his jab excellently and owns the highest striking output in UFC history, whereas Allen has shown a tendency to lack in the output department. All signs point towards a victory for the Hawaiian, especially considering he’s never been knocked out, and this would be the most viable path to victory for the underdog.

Over 4 ½ Rounds: The Betting Formula

The available UFC odds favor Holloway, but a respectable -164 price is still playable at U.S. betting sites. With that said, the most comfortable betting approach for the weekend’s main event would be the over 4 ½ rounds.

Holloway is a renowned point fighter, and if you’re backing him to win this weekend, you should take the decision prop. His sole UFC KO/TKO victories have all arrived behind sheer output, as he unquestionably lacks in the power department.

Both fighters possess solid durability, and four of Allen’s last six fights have gone the distance, while all six of Holloway’s most recent bouts have also gone the distance.

UFC Pick: Over 4.5 Rounds (-125) [1.25u to win 1u] at Heritage Sports

UFC Kansas City Main Card & Odds

UFC Kansas City Preliminary Card & Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.