Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Austin
UFC Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Reviews)
Following a week’s break, the octagon festivities return as the UFC heads to the Lone Star State with top contending lightweight competitors spearheading the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Austin main event clash between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan, including updated UFC odds provided by our main offshore sportsbooks, as well as our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Austin Information
- When: Saturday, Dec 2, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: Moody Center, Austin, Texas
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
- Moneyline Probability: Dariush – 26.7% (+275) Tsarukyan – 70.1% (-235)
UFC Austin Main Event: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Beneil “Benny” Dariush
Dariush entered the UFC in 2014 with a reputation as a skilled grappler; however, he took some time to gain momentum. Nevertheless, on certain occasions, his deficiency in inherent physical ability became apparent. When he was defeated by Alexander Hernandez in 2018, his opportunity for a genuine championship pursuit appeared to be extinguished.
Since then, however, the Iranian-born American has made significant progress. Despite being surrounded by naturally explosive athletes, he boasts a lesser physical prowess than most. However, his striking skills have reached a high level of technical excellence. Combined with his grappling credentials, he’s evolved into a formidable competitor in all aspects of the sport.
In his last bout, he had an impressive sequence of eight consecutive victories come to an abrupt end within a mere four minutes, as Charles Oliveira effectively dismantled him with a barrage of punches.
Dariush Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (One time)
- Tied for third-most wins in UFC lightweight division history (16)
- RITC Lightweight Champion (One time, one defense)
- Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu No Gi Champion (2010, 2009, 2008)
- BJJ World No-Gi Championship (2010)
- Pan American Championship (2009)
Dariush Best Moneyline Odds: +275 with BetOnline
Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan
Tsarukyan is over ten years younger than his weekend opposition, and since joining the promotion in 2019, he has demonstrated tremendous potential. His debut bout was against Islam Makhachev, the current lightweight champion, and his abilities gave the Dagestani a run for his money.
Since then, Tsarukyan has gone 7–0, with his lone defeat coming at the hands of rival contender Mateusz Gamrot in a somewhat contentious decision.
Regarding the UFC roster, the Russian-Armenian is among the few competitors lacking flaws. In addition to being an extremely big grappler that caused problems for Makhachev, he has demonstrated in a few battles that he can also deliver vicious ground-and-pound strikes.
If I had to choose a weak point, his standing striking skills need polishing. But at the age of 27, said room for improvement will undoubtedly arrive in the coming years, and we could well be gazing at a future title challenger.
Tsarukyan Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (One time)
Tsarukyan Best Moneyline Odds: -235 with BetOnline
UFC Austin Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Tale of the Tape
UFC Austin Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Where Dariush lacks athleticism, he makes up for it with his precise, well-timed, striking offense. Not to mention, regarding a wrestling/grappling exchange, he’s far from a liability and will give most a run for their money.
I genuinely believe the moneyline pricing is far too wide, and with the potential of grappling exchanges being canceled out with two strong wrestlers, an exchange of strikes for 25 minutes doesn’t give me the greatest faith in Tsarukyan.
Sure, we could give a speed advantage to Tsarukyan, but I’m seeing too many critics also giving him the power advantage, and I can’t go 100% on this take. Dariush has folded various opponents, such as Holtzman and Klose, which is one reason I’m hesitant about the betting favorites’ moneyline.
Over 3 ½ Rounds: The UFC Austin Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have placed a hefty price tag on Tsarukyan, and while I believe he’s the rightful favorite, the over/under delivers more intrigue from a betting perspective.
Tsarukyan has been stopped inside the distance on just one occasion during his pro career, but as a UFC competitor, his record is clean of KO/TKO and submission defeats. Likewise, KO/TKO and submission defeats haven’t been common for Dariush, whose durability has remained strong in 8 of his last 9 UFC bouts.
A grappling exchange would undoubtedly assist this play into the third round. With the need to savor cardio for the potential of a fourth and fifth round, I don’t anticipate either fighter to go all guns blazing in the early stages of the bout. And for these reasons, I’m taking over 3 ½ rounds at a respectable price of -130.
UFC Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-130) at BetOnline [1.30u to win 1u]
UFC Austin Main Card & Odds
- Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan [UFC lightweight main event bout]
- Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green [UFC co-main lightweight bout]
- Rob Font vs. Deiveson Figueiredo [UFC flyweight bout]
- Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum [UFC welterweight bout]
- Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva [UFC lightweight bout]
- Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus [UFC middleweight bout]
UFC Austin Preliminary Card & Odds
- Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
- Cody Brundage vs. Zach Reese [UFC middleweight bout]
- Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa [UFC lightweight bout]
- Ihor Potieria vs. Rodolfo Bellato [UFC light heavyweight ]
- Wellington Turman vs. Jared Gooden [UFC welterweight bout]
- Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Veronica Hardy [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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