UFC 303 Punching Parlay
- Joe Pyfer ML (-280)
- Payton Talbott by KO/TKO or Submission (-190)
Top UFC Pick: Two Team Parlay (+108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is celebrating the beginning of international fight week, but on Saturday night in Sin City, it concludes the seven-day festivities with an absolute banger of pay-per-view fight card.
UFC 303, despite the saddening absence of Conor McGregor, is stacked with top-tier talent from top to bottom. As usual, I’m back to supplement your UFC odds from leading sportsbooks, fight prediction and betting needs with my perfect MMA parlay selections, which you can find below.
Continue reading for an in-depth analysis, especially if you’re intrigued by the main event light heavyweight title bout featuring Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka.
UFC 303 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 29, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka II (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Bout)
Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC 303 Middleweight Bout
Pyfer: The Story So Far
Five straight wins, five consecutive wins inside the distance, and a massive hype train was leading Joe Pyfer into the biggest fight of his career in February. Unfortunately, this 27-year-old prospect was potentially rushed up the rankings too soon, as an experienced Jack Hermansson gave him a rude awakening and cost him the first L on his UFC record.
Don’t let recency bias overcloud your judgment on Pyfer, and keep that same energy pre-2024 because his potential shouldn’t be diminished. Hermansson is no easy out, and Pyfer is young and primed for a huge bounce back.
- Pyfer Pro MMA Record: 12-3-0
- Pyfer Knockout Wins: 8
- Pyfer Submission Wins: 3
Barriault: The Story So Far
Canada’s Marc-Andre Barriault is no world-beater; he isn’t going to challenge for a title one day, and he can be placed in the journeyman category. However, any fighter that isn’t of an elite level will stumble in front of him, and if a fraud check is due, Barriault is the man to cash it.
- Barriault Pro MMA Record: 16-7-0
- Barriault Knockout Wins: 10
- Barriault Submission Wins: 1
UFC 303 Pyfer vs. Barriault: Skillset Breakdown
As mentioned, losing to Hermansson bears no shame, and Pyfer is still the blue-chip prospect we believed he was. The question is, does he have the skill set to overcome the well-rounded MAB?
Yes, I believe he does. In fact, I don’t see one area of the fight game where Barriault can cause Pyfer problems outside of a flash KO or random back take, which can happen to any fighter on any given day.
Ultimately, I envision this fight going one of two ways: Depending on Pyfer’s game plan, we’ll see him implement a wrestling game plan and probably find a submission finish, or he’ll utilize a speed advantage he’ll own on the feet and blast MAB with a knockout-worthy strike to end the fight the way the Canadian has lost many times before.
Pyfer Moneyline Reasoning
I wish more people would hype the recency bias and fade Pyfer this weekend, but currently, we aren’t getting the best prices. At the end of the day, he was brought to the big stage too soon, and now it’s time to remind people what brought him to that dance.
The available UFC odds favor Pyfer at -280, and I really can’t argue with this implied probability of 73%.
Clean boxing, a dangerous jab, and the ability to prevent counters with strikingly accurate straights are great for setting up the knockout shot. He also mixes up his striking with kicks, and for wrestling and jiu-jitsu, well, don’t forget the arm-triangle choke; he stopped Abdul Alhassan with two fights back.
I predict Pyfer to win this fight with yet another impressive KO/TKO. MAB just isn’t defensively sound enough to trust, and we know how “Bodybagz” hits like a truck. However, for the parlay’s sake, we’ll protect our investment by taking the moneyline, which gives us plus-money when combined with Talbott anyway.
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Joe Pyfer ML (-280) at BetOnline
Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
UFC 303 Bantamweight Bout
Talbott: The Story So Far
Just six years later, 19-year-old Payton Talbott made his amateur MMA career debut, and it would seem this choice might evolve into one of the wisest career decisions he could’ve made. After running through the lower leagues, he entered the professional realm and now enters the biggest card of his tenure thus far behind a 13-fight win streak with all but one of those contests ending via KO/TKO or submission.
He’s rapidly evolved into one of the UFC’s brightest prospects. Although he’s far from the top-five rankings of the bantamweight division, aged 25, he has much room for growth and the talents capable of shining once the in-cage experience builds.
- Talbott Pro MMA Record: 8-0-0
- Talbott Knockout Wins: 6
- Talbott Submission Wins: 1
Ghemmouri: The Story So Far
France’s Yanis Ghemmouri is a fellow 135lb prospect who needs to take baby steps in the shark-infested waters of the UFC. Unfortunately for him, a nine-fight win streak came to an abrupt end when making his promotional debut last September, when a fellow French competitor, William Gomis, brutalized his body to cause a KO/TKO stoppage.
- Ghemmouri Pro MMA Record: 12-2-0
- Ghemmouri Knockout Wins: 3
- Ghemmouri Submission Wins: 4
UFC 303 Talbott vs. Ghemmouri: Skillset Breakdown
Khamzat Chimaev, Sean O’Malley, and even Alex Pereira were three fighters who entered the octagon with an unexplainable aura around their skill sets in the past five years, which ultimately led them to great things. Payton Talbott has the exact same vibe.
Talbott’s striking fundamentals are beautiful. Specifically, his footwork and ability to set up precise combinations from multiple angles puts the art in mixed martial arts. His jiu-jitsu is also a noteworthy aspect of his game, although most of his career finishes (amateur and pro) have arrived via KO/TKO.
Ghemmouri isn’t a bad striker by any means, but he isn’t going to match Talbott’s methodical and precise offensive output. Defensive wrestling is the only glaring weakness we’ve seen from the prospect, but even then, the Frenchman just isn’t holding the noteworthy attributes in this area of the fight game.
Talbott by KO/TKO or Submission Reasoning
Interestingly, Talbott has never won a fight in the first five minutes. He isn’t a round-one fighter; he’s patient, has a smart fight IQ, and will wait for his moment to pounce.
The available UFC odds place Talbott at an eye-watering -1700 moneyline price. This speaks volumes because we rarely witness such an ML price.
That said, boost these odds to -190 by backing him to win by KO/TKO or submission. I prefer the former (KO), but given that Ghemmouri might attempt to wrestle offensively, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a defensive submission wrap this fight up.
Speed, precision, and the aura of a genuine future top contender are all I need to back Talbott. This is just another resume-building opponent the UFC is gifting him, as they know they’re dealing with a special kind of talent.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: Talbott by KO or Submission (-190) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Joe Pyfer ML (-280)
- Payton Talbott by KO/TKO or Submission (-190)
UFC Pick: Two Team Parlay (+108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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