Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 296
UFC Pick: Leon Edwards ML (-154) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
At the conclusion of UFC’s 2023 schedule, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is preparing for a fight card stacked with talent, and the headline bout sees welterweight competitors exchange leather for the welterweight championship, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
The defending champion, Leon Edwards, welcomes Colby Covington into the octagon as the British star attempts to put a legendary stamp on 2023 with consecutive high-profile victories.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 296 main event bout with Edwards and Covington, including updated UFC odds and our expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis to play at our main offshore sportsbooks.
UFC 296 Information
- When: Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: T-Mobile Area, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Leon Edwards (C) vs. Colby Covington
- Moneyline Probability: Edwards – 60.6% (-154) Covington – 41.8% (+139)
UFC 296 Main Event: Edwards vs. Covington
Leon Edwards
In the last bout of the year, Leon Edwards defends his welterweight championship against Colby Covington, a former two-time title contender. This highly anticipated battle promises to be exceptional.
Edwards successfully defended his championship by securing a majority decision victory against Kamaru Usman at UFC 286 in London. Although the battle may appear to be evenly matched on paper, the reality is that Edwards outperformed his opponent. This was evident in his dominant performance throughout the bout, which extended his undefeated record to twelve consecutive victories.
It is worth noting that the appearance of a tight fight was influenced by a point penalty against Edwards in the third round for grasping the fence. And since his rise to claiming gold, Edward is considered one of the promotion’s finest technical strikers with solid takedown defense.
Edwards Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Welterweight Championship (One time, one defense; current]
- UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
- Sixth-fastest finish in UFC history (8 seconds)
- Tied with GSP for second-longest undefeated streak in UFC welterweight history
- First Jamaican-born UFC champion
Edwards Best Moneyline Odds: (-154) at Heritage Sports
Colby Covington
Covington was designated as the substitute for that bout in London and subsequently recognized as the next contender by UFC CEO Dana White. Between his defeats to Usman in late 2019 and 2021, the 35-year-old managed to secure victories against Tyron Woodley and Jorge Masvidal, neither of whom are performing in their prime fighting years.
At his peak performance, Covington was an indefatigable aggressor who excelled in wrestling and possessed superior boxing skills that were often underestimated. However, he has been inactive since March 2022, raising curiosity about his ability to substantiate his bold statements regarding his plans to defeat Edwards on Saturday night.
Covington Combat Sports Accomplishments
- Interim UFC Welterweight Champion (One time)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)
- NCAA Div I All-American
Covington Best Moneyline Odds: (+139) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC 296: Tale of the Tape
UFC 296 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Cardio and wrestling favor Colby, but unfortunately for him, he’s contending with the welterweight champ who’s excelled versus elite-level wrestlers in the past, including back-to-back wins against the formidable and former champ, Usman.
In a striking exchange, the challenger doesn’t stand a chance. He isn’t a slouch in this department by any means, but he isn’t renowned for delivering power, and without that one-punch chance, he’ll be technically outclassed by the Brit.
We should expect a striker versus wrestler matchup, but the former is a significantly worse style to own when you’re faced with such a noteworthy takedown defense.
Leon Edwards Moneyline: The UFC 296 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have placed Edwards as the betting favorite, but the curiosity from bettors is keeping the margin small.
At the end of the day, we truly don’t know what we’re going to see from Covington. Obviously, the decorated wrestling background of “Chaos” has been a staple within his MMA career thus far; however, he’s been so inactive over the past three years it’s difficult to back him versus the striking prowess of the champ.
Edward’s mixture of head and body strikes with multiple limbs is some of the best that pro-MMA has to offer. With a -154 moneyline on the table, and given his high-percent (69%) takedown defense thus far, backing the champ to retain his championship is holding value and his potential of success to close out 2023 in the green.
UFC Pick: Edwards ML (-154) [1.54u to win 1u] at Heritage Sports
UFC 296 Main Card & Odds
- Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington [UFC welterweight main event bout]
- Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval [UFC co-main flyweight championship bout]
- Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson [UFC welterweight bout]
- Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett [UFC lightweight bout]
- Vicente Luque vs. Ian Garry [UFC welterweight bout]
UFC 296 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell [UFC featherweight bout]
- Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
- Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Casey O’Neil vs. Ariane Lipski [UFC women’s flyweight ]
- Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden [UFC flyweight bout]
- Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida [UFC featherweight bout]
- Shamil Gaziev vs. Martin Buday [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov [UFC welterweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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