UFC 294 First Look Makhachev vs. Volkanovski II Betting Picks & Odds

Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 294

UFC Pick: Over 4½ Rounds (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Over 4½ Rounds (-125)

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In their return to Abu Dhabi, the UFC found a short-notice replacement for Charles Oliveira, and boy, have they delivered.

The reigning, defending lightweight champ, Islam Makhachev, will trade blows with the man who came incredibly close to dethroning him once before, Alexander Volkanovski, in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 294 main event clash between Makhachev and Volkanovski, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

UFC 294 Information

• When: Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 10:00 AM EDT  
• Where: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
• Scheduled Bouts: 13  
• Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski 2
• Moneyline Probability: Makhachev – 71.4% (-250) Volkanovski – 32.3% (+210)

UFC 294 Main Event: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski

Islam Makhachev     

Islam Makhachev has been a dominant force in professional mixed martial arts for the past twelve years. He is often compared to Khabib Nurmagomedov, a legendary figure in the sport and one of its all-time greats. Despite not having a perfect record, his 23-1-0 record is quite impressive, especially considering he has been competing at the highest level for the past seven years.

With a 12-1 record, including 12 consecutive wins and a title-winning arm triangle choke in the second round against Charles Oliveira, followed by a decision win over his upcoming opponent and the sports p4p No.1, Makhachev has made a strong impact.

The Dagestani mixed martial arts style has gained significant popularity, and Makhachev is currently leading the charge. However, in order to solidify his position as one of the greatest fighters in the octagon, he must successfully defend his 155lb title multiple times and do so convincingly. There’s no denying that back-to-back successes over Volk is a great place to start.

Makhachev Combat Sports Accomplishments 

• UFC Lightweight Championship (One time, current, one defense)
• UFC Fight of the Night (Twice)
• UFC Performance of the Night (One time)
• Least significant strikes absorbed per minute in UFC history (1.24)
• Third longest win streak in UFC Lightweight division history (11)
• FIAS World Combat Sambo Championship Gold Medallist (2016)

Makhachev Best Moneyline Odds: -250 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski      

Alexander Volkanovski is the most dominant fighter in the featherweight division of the UFC. Behind five successful title defenses and an 11-fight winning streak at 145 lbs since his debut in 2014, Volkanovski has easily outperformed his opponents and nearly cleared out the division.

However, finding worthy challengers who can give him a tough fight has been challenging. This resulted in Volkanovski recently suffering his first defeat in the UFC when moving up to compete against the lightweight division champion, Islam Makhachev. A closely-fought contest played out, and the MMA community has called for a rematch ever since.

With Charles Oliveira being forced out of UFC 294, Volkanovski didn’t think twice when stepping up on short notice. And now, the Australian native can make history while making his pound-for-pound status almost unobtainable by the other roster members.

Volkanovski Combat Sports Accomplishments 

• UFC Featherweight Champion (One time, current, five defenses)
• UFC Fight of the Night (Three times)
• UFC Performance of the Night (One time)
• The second-longest win streak in UFC Featherweight division history (11)
• UFC Men’s Pound-For-Pound No.1  (2022 & 2023)  

Volkanovski Best Moneyline Odds: +210 at BetOnline

UFC 294: Tale of the Tape

UFC 294 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights  

Both Volk and Makhachev scored knockdowns during their first meeting, but as we’ve long witnessed from both men, durability inside the octagon is one of their many most noteworthy attributes.

From a striking perspective, we can undoubtedly favor Volk, and with wrestling, Makhachev takes it. However, they equally displayed their incredible diversity in the first bout, resulting in the toughest test of the Russian’s 11-fight win streak.

And then, cardio, neither guy owned an advantage, despite the extensive periods of wrestling. So, because of these aforementioned attributes, attempting a straight pick on this fight will be nothing more than a headache.

The UFC 294 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds at the top sportsbooks have placed Makhachev at a price that doesn’t show much value, especially considering how the initial meeting between these two fighters panned out.  

Whatever your opinion is of the first bout between Volkanovski and Makhachev, the former unquestionably won at least two of the five rounds. However, we’ve witnessed zero market correction, and a moneyline price in the +300 region remains for the Australian challenger.

For this reason, we’re heading to the over/under market for this weekend’s UFC 294 main event. And, of course, we must side with this contest reaching the fifth round. The durability and defensive attributes of Volk and Makhachev have been almost flawless during their respective careers.

With a -125 odds price, the over 4½ rounds is fitting for two of the planet’s greatest mixed martial artists. Don’t overthink it, as we’ll witness another technical battle for 25 minutes. 

UFC Pick: Over 4½ Rounds (-125) at Bovada [1.25u to win 1u]   

UFC 294 Main Card & Odds

• Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski [UFC lightweight championship bout]
• Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev [UFC co-main middleweight bout]
• Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker [UFC light heavyweight bout]
• Ikram Aliskerov vs. Warlley Alves [UFC middleweight bout]
• Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov [UFC bantamweight bout]

UFC 294 Preliminary Card & Odds

• Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev [UFC flyweight bout]
• Mohammad Yahya vs. Trevor Peek [UFC lightweight bout]
• Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry [UFC bantamweight bout]
• Sedriques Dumas vs. Abu Azaitar [UFC middleweight bout]
• Anshul Jubli vs. Mike Breeden [UFC lightweight bout]
• Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov [UFC featherweight bout]
• Jinh Yu Frey vs. Victoria Dudakova [UFC women’s strawweight bout]  
• Shara Magomedov vs. Bruno Silva [UFC middleweight bout]

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.