Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 293
The UFC goes down under for a massive PPV card in Sydney, Australia this weekend. The middleweight championship will be up for grabs in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
The formidable future HOF athlete Israel Adesanya defends the 185-pound strap versus the verbally controversial yet highly entertaining striker that is Sean Strickland.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 293 main event clash between Adesanya and Strickland, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Adesanya vs. Strickland Key Facts
- Adesanya owns a 13-2 UFC record
- Strickland has lost 2 of his previous 4 UFC bouts
- Strickland was knocked out cold by Alex Pereira
UFC 293 Information
- When: Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 06:30 PM EDT
- Where: Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland
- Moneyline Probability: Adesanya – 84.6% (-550) H – 20.2% (+395) at Bovada
The MMA world stood still when Israel Adesanya lost his first-ever midweight bout to Alex Pereira. However, it didn’t take the multi-time UFC record holder to avenge his loss, and emphatically, the man renowned for his kickboxing credentials brutally stopped his nemesis, Pereira, and sent him packing to the light heavyweight division.
After five years of graft in the UFC, the middleweight champion has cleared the 185-pound weight class with a 13-2 record, two championship wins, and eight successful title fight victories.
As the king of the middleweight division awaits rising prospects and challengers (ones he hasn’t defeated), can a long-serving Sean Strickland, one of the lone 185-pounders who hasn’t received his opportunity at gold, achieve what many couldn’t this weekend?
Adesanya Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Middleweight Champion (Two times, five defenses)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Six times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)
- Most knockdowns in a UFC title fight (4)
- Second longest win streak in UFC middleweight division history (12)
- Second most title fight wins in UFC middleweight division history (8)
Adesanya Best Moneyline Odds: -550 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Strickland, 32, has competed among the middleweight elite for nine years. And while his persona presents love or hate attributes, you cannot deny the 14-5 UFC record he’s obtained during a quest to the top of the division.
Many critics will question Strickland’s championship opportunity with recent losses to Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier. However, he bounced back in fashion with dominant victories over top prospects Nassourdine Imavov and Abus Magomedov, and he’s one of two top #5 middleweights that Adesanya hasn’t already fought and defeated.
Strickland Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
- KOTC Middleweight Championship (One time, five defenses)
Strickland Best Moneyline Odds: +475 at BetOnline
UFC 293: Tale of the Tape
UFC 293 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Standing at an impressive height of 6 feet 4 inches, Adesanya frequently takes advantage of his long physique. This has undoubtedly proven to be a significant asset for him in the middleweight division.
On the other hand, Strickland lacks these attributes, and Adesanya's exceptional ability to control distance in the octagon has established him as one of the industry's top offensive and defensive strikers.
Regarding speed and defense, Adesanya clearly holds the upper hand. Additionally, with Strickland now competing in the larger cage instead of the smaller Apex variation, he is likely to face major disadvantages when engaging in striking exchanges with the champion. Adesanya strategically aims to inflict cumulative damage with his strikes, but Strickland's lack of head movement and courage will cost him dearly.
Anticipate a relentless onslaught of attacks from Adesanya, ranging from leg strikes to jabs and occasionally even a sneaky head kick. He will employ feints to provoke incorrect reactions from his opponent while exhibiting smooth footwork, seamlessly switching stances, and displaying sharp reflexes, rendering him a difficult target to hit, as always.
While it is true that Strickland possesses strong wrestling skills, Adesanya will not allow him to get comfortable at a distance that would enable takedown attempts.
The UFC 293 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at the top US sportsbooks have placed Adesanya as a huge betting favorite, and we cannot disagree with this stance.
There hasn’t been a more dominant fighter than Adesanya in the middleweight division since Anderson Silva. Now he’s facing a fighter with a 2-2 record in his last four bouts that presents several red flags in his arsenal.
Strickland, as he always does, will leave himself defensively vulnerable. While the champ isn’t known for one-punch knockout power, he’s unquestionably capable of finding a KO/TKO victory over an opponent willing to exchange on the feet for 25 minutes straight.
UFC Pick: Adesanya KO/TKO (+115) at BetOnline [1u to win 1.15u]
UFC 293 Main Card & Odds
- Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland [UFC middleweight championship bout]
- Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov [UFC co-main heavyweight bout]
- Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos [UFC flyweight bout]
UFC 293 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Woon Jung [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Jack Jenkins vs. Chepe Mariscal [UFC featherweight bout]
- Blood Diamond vs. Charlie Radtke [UFC welterweight bout]
- Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda [UFC featherweight bout]
- Jamie Mullarkey vs. John Makdessi [UFC lightweight bout]
- Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones [UFC lightweight bout]
- Kevin Jousset vs. Kiefer Crosbie [UFC welterweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.