Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 292
Under 4½ Rounds -180 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With a return to the TD Garden on the horizon, a highly anticipated bantamweight showdown will spearhead UFC 292, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
The formidable striking prowess of Sean “Sugar” O’Malley will be tested as he receives his first shot at gold, but to become champion, he must endure and overcome the punishment Aljamain Sterling has promised to deliver.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 292 main event clash between Sterling and O’Malley, including updated odds and our free expert UFC picks.
Sterling vs. O’Malley Key Facts
- Under 3.5 Rounds has landed in 6 of O’Malley’s 9 UFC bouts.
- 3 of Sterling’s previous 5 UFC bouts ended inside the distance.
- 6 of O’Malley’s previous 8 UFC bouts ended in rounds 1, 2, or 3.
UFC 292 Information
- When: Saturday, August 19, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT
- Where: TD Garden, Boston
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley
- Moneyline Probability: Sterling – 72.1% (-258) / O’Malley – 31.4% (+218)
UFC 292 Sterling vs. O’Malley: Tale of the Tape
Aljamain Sterling
The “Funk Master” Aljamain Sterling isn’t just riding a nine-fight streak, he isn’t just the UFC bantamweight champion, but he’s also placed himself in the conversation of being the greatest 135-pound fighter of all time.
We can debate whether he’s the greatest bantamweight ever to do it. Still, with more wins than any other bantamweight competitor in UFC history and the longest active win streak, it’s difficult to argue the sentiment that Aljo is one of the greats.
Sterling Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Bantamweight Champion (One time, current)
- Most consecutive title defenses in UFC Bantamweight division history (3)
- UFC Performance of the Night (One time)
- Most wins in UFC Bantamweight division history (14)
- Longest win streak in UFC Bantamweight division history (9)
- CCFC Bantamweight Champion (One time)
- ROC Bantamweight Champion (One time)
UFC Pick: Aljamain Sterling -258 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Sean O’Malley
He’s heavily critiqued due to the superstardom he’s obtained, but we cannot discredit the striking prowess of Sean “Sugar” O’Malley. Since debuting for the UFC, it isn’t just a flamboyant personality that’s positioned him in the spotlight, but an elite striking prowess that’s captured the second-most post-fight bonuses in UFC bantamweight division history.
Wrestling defenses have been questioned versus the likes of Marlon Vera, but we also witnessed the evolving game of “Sugar” versus a highly touted grappler in Petr Yan. Furthermore, his fight IQ and knockout potential don’t need much to get going, and a championship win for O’Malley this weekend would be massive for the sport.
O’Malley Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Three times)
- Tied for second most post-fight bonuses in UFC Bantamweight division history (7)
- Highest No. of strikes landed per minute in UFC Bantamweight division history (7.47)
- ICF Bantamweight Champion (One time)
UFC Pick: Sean O’Malley +218 at BetOnline
UFC 292 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
There’s no denying the wrestling credentials of “Funk Master”. He outperformed the former Olympic wrestler Henry Cejudo last time out. Once he gets a hold of O’Malley, the takedown is inevitable with such a big body at bantamweight.
However, O’Malley’s length, reach, and precise striking will pay dividends in the striking exchanges. Most fight fans realize we have a striker versus wrestler matchup on our hands, but they’re both so talented in each realm that it’s difficult to predict which style will prevail.
O’Malley Moneyline: The UFC 292 Best Bet Formula
The UFC odds have made Sterling a significant betting favorite. Still, I don’t believe the line is accurate. I agree the champion should be favored, but a +218 money line on O’Malley is quite absurd when considering the KO threat and striking advantage he possesses.
Instead, the under 4.5 rounds at -180 are showing value. O’Malley has never fought beyond the third round, under 3.5 rounds has landed in 6 of his 9 UFC bouts to date, and Funk Master undoubtedly owns the jiu-jitsu skillset to end this fight.
Furthermore, it’ll take one clean combination from O’Malley to potentially end this bout. We’ve seen Sterling on wobbly legs before, as the unpredictable striking masterclass of the underdog adds further support that this fight isn’t going all five rounds.
UFC Pick: Under 4½ Rounds (-180) at Heritage Sports [1u to win 1.59u]
UFC 292 Main Card & Odds
- Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley [UFC bantamweight main event title bout]
- Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos [UFC co-main women’s strawweight title bout]
- Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry [UFC welterweight bout]
- Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista [UFC bantamweight bout]
UFC 292 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin [UFC middleweight bout]
- Gerald Meerschaert vs. Andre Petroski [UFC middleweight bout]
- Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares [UFC middleweight bout]
- Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
- Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
- Kurt Holobaugh vs. Austin Hubbard [UFC TUF 31 lightweight final]
- Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson [UFC bantamweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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