UFC 289 First Look: Nunes vs. Aldana Betting Picks, Odds, and Predictions

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Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 289

UFC Pick: Over 2½ Rounds -115 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 2½ Rounds -115
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The UFC returns to pay-per-view this weekend, and we’re covering your main event betting needs. The headline bout will witness the return of MMA’s most dominant female fighter.

Brazil’s finest, Amanda Nunes, defends her bantamweight crown versus a Mexican menace in Irene Aldana, and we can expect this all-Latino showdown to deliver a combat sports showdown for the ages.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 289 main event clash between Nunes and Aldana, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

Nunes vs. Aldana Key Facts

  • Nunes has lost just 1 of her previous 14 UFC bouts.
  • 3 of Nunes’s last 5 UFC bouts went to the judge’s scorecards.
  • Aldana has never been stopped inside the distance.

UFC 289 Information

  • When: Saturday, June 10, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT
  • Where: Rogers Arena, Canada
  • Scheduled Bouts: 11
  • Main Event: Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana
  • Moneyline Probability: Nunes – 76.5% (-325) Aldana – 27.7% (+261)

UFC 289 Nunes vs. Aldana: Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes

A scheduled fight card with Amanda Nunes topping the bill should never be taken lightly, as the Brazilian superstar could walk away from the sport tomorrow and still hold the title as the most decorated female in combat sports for many years to come.

Nunes, 35, most recently dropped the bantamweight title in a shock loss to Julianna Pena. Our jaws dropped as a -1125 betting favorite was submitted, but she wasted no time reclaiming the gold in the rematch. This set up a trilogy bout, but with Pena’s withdrawal, Nunes now faces a new opponent in Aldana.

The most recent title win saw Nunes become a two-time bantamweight champion, and despite the previous loss that positioned her as a title challenger, the bigger picture shows she’s lost just 1 of her past 14 UFC bouts. During an incredible run for the company since 2013, a record compiled of 15 wins and 2 losses throughout two weight classes (bantamweight and featherweight) has also delivered 7 KO/TKO and 3 submission victories.

Nunes Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion (two times, current)
  • UFC Women’s Featherweight Champion (one time; current)
  • First woman in UFC to hold two titles and to also contain them simultaneously
  • First fighter in UFC to defend titles in two divisions while holding both titles
  • Longest combined UFC title reign of all time (3599)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (five times)
  • Most finishes in UFC women’s history (10)

Nunes Best Moneyline Odds: -325 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Irene Aldana

When Julianna Pena had to withdraw from her scheduled trilogy bout versus Nunes, the stars aligned for Irene Aldana. Despite being the no.5-ranked women’s bantamweight behind Raquel Pennington, Holly Holm, and Ketlen Vieira, the UFC opted for the Mexican to replace Pena.

This isn’t, however, a suggestion that Aldana isn’t deserving. In fact, many critics believed Aldana should’ve been the rightful opponent for Nunes over the Pena rematch. She’s won 4 of her previous 5 bouts, stopped Macy Chiasson, Yana Santos, and Vieira, all by KO/TKO, and will unquestionably be a stern test for the champion.

Aldana adjusted to the UFC roster early on when losing back-to-back fights. With experience and a willingness to reach the top rankings, she’s gone 7-2 since, with her only losses coming against No.2-ranked Pennington and the former champ Holm.

Aldana Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
  • UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)
  • Invicta FC Performance of the Night (Three times)

Aldana Best Moneyline Odds: +261 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

UFC 289 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

It’s hard to neglect the punching power of Amanda Nunes, that’s assisted her in winning 7 of her 15 UFC victories via KO/TKO. However, this weekend she’ll face an opponent that has predominantly utilized a striking offensive during her career.

Aldana could be one of the most challenging strikers Nunes has faced in years. With a height and reach advantage, I don’t envision the Mexican challenger having difficulties handling the forward pressure of the champ, as we’ve seen her strike comfortably off her backfoot on multiple occasions.

With these factors in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to watch Nunes use a wrestling/grappling game plan and attempt to keep this fight grounded. Aldana has displayed weaknesses in her defensive wrestling, and should we witness a grapple fest, the fight clock will be drained.

The UFC Vegas 289 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds at the top US sportsbooks have made Nunes a significant betting favorite. Despite the line not being as absurd as we’ve seen in past Nunes bouts, it’s still too wide, and there isn’t much value to be had.

Since Aldana has never been stopped inside the distance, her durability and the potential of a wrestling gameplan from Nunes put intrigue on the over two and a half rounds. It’s a viable betting position for two durable fighters that have the potential to take this bout through all five rounds.

UFC Pick: Over 2½ Rounds -115 at BetOnline [1.15u to win 1u]

UFC 289 Main Card & Odds

UFC 289 Preliminary Card & Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.