UFC 287 Co-Main Event: Burns vs. Masvidal Best Bets, Odds, and Analysis

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Jorge Masvidal punches Ben Askren during their UFC 239 Welterweight Bout. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP.

Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 287 Co-Main Event

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Over 2.5 Rounds (+107)
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The penultimate bout of Saturday’s UFC 287 event and return to PPV in Florida owns the potential to steal the spotlight as two highly-touted warriors, Gilbert Burns, and Jorge Masvidal, meet in the center of the octagon.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 287 co-main event between Burns and Masvidal, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC picks, analysis, and predictions.

UFC 287 Co-Main Event Information

  • When: Saturday, April 08, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT
  • Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
  • Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya 2 [Middleweight Championship Bout]
  • Co-Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal [Welterweight Bout]
  • Co-Main Moneyline Probability: Burns – 82.3% (-465) Masvidal – 21.5% (+365)
  • Co-Main Totals Probability: Over 2.5 – 48.3% (+107) & Under 1.5 – 55.6% (-125)

UFC 287 Best Bet

Over 2.5 Rounds Reasoning

Masvidal has been stopped inside the distance just three times from the 51 professional MMA bouts he’s competed in, and only one of those losses was by submission (2009) – the most viable path to win inside the distance for Burns. Likewise, Burns has been stopped inside the distance twice in his 26-fight career.

Durability is a positive attribute for both fighters, making the over 2.5 rounds a valuable and more trustworthy stance given the volatility within the moneyline market that doesn’t entirely represent the skill levels of each fighter.

  • Confidence Rating: 3/5

UFC 287 Co-Main Event: Tale of the Tape

Gilbert “Durinho” Burns

With just two losses on his UFC record - Khamzat Chimaev and former champion Kamaru Usman - within the previous five years, Gilbert Burns is one of the most talented welterweight competitors that’s never held the 170lb strap.

Behind a UFC career dating back to 2015, Burns began his tenure amongst the elite of MMA by displaying a slick grappling background in the octagon, one he’d obtained through countless years of competing in the highest-level jiu-jitsu tournaments. But over recent years, Burns has proven himself as a worthy mixed martial artist by upgrading his skillset to deliver striking attributes that have become just as notable.

Aged 35, Burns hasn’t displayed the signs that suggest he’s exiting his prime fighting years. With a position ranked amongst the UFC welterweight's top 5, he’s one significant victory away from earning another opportunity at gold.

Gilbert Burns Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Fight of the Night (One time)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
  • IBJJF No-gi World Champion (2013 & 2010)
  • IBJJF Gi World Champion (2011)

Best Moneyline Odds: Gilbert Burns (-465) at BetOnline

Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal

It’s been over a year since we last saw “Gamebred” Masvidal in the octagon, too long if you ask any fan of the fight game. The man who burst into stardom when delivering the fastest knockout in UFC history via a flying knee to the cranium of Ben Askren has since earned the title “Badest Motherf**ker” by defeating Nate Diaz for the BMF title but also stumbled upon a losing streak while competing against two of the divisions most robust and talented wrestlers in Kamaru Usman & Colby Covington.

A sound technical striking offense has often been the gameplan of Masvidal. And since he arrived at the UFC in 2013, this future Hall of Famer has continuously strived to involve himself in stand-up battles. He doesn’t shy away from grappling, but it will always be a “three-piece & a soda” that Masvidal hungers for.

Two years shy of 40 years old; he isn’t getting any younger. A championship belt - outside of the novelty BMF title - has eluded Masvidal’s career, but overcoming the talents of Gilbert Burns this Saturday would certainly put his name in line for a chance at fighting the winner of Leon Edwards versus Colby Covington.

Jorge Masvidal Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Fight of the Night (Three times)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
  • Fastest KO in UFC history (five seconds) vs. Ben Askren
  • UFC ‘BMF’ Championship
  • AFC Welterweight Championship

Best Moneyline Odds: Jorge Masvidal (+365) at BetOnline

UFC 287 Co-Main Event Skillset Analysis

After reviewing the past discrepancies of his losing bouts, Burns will recognize that Masvidal can be susceptible in specific grappling positions. However, this isn’t a knock on Masvidal, as his wrestling ability has only been compromised against the highest level of grapplers.

Burns may opt to avoid grappling completely to avoid gassing, but as it’s a 3-round bout, we should anticipate him to at least test this path to victory. And given the fact that Masvidal is unquestionably the greater striker of the two, Burns will likely need to advance through a grappling blueprint to stand a chance of winning.

Single-leg takedowns and cage control are the most notable weaknesses in Masvidal’s grappling. Although Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu primarily brought Burns to the dance, he’s fallen in love with hands. He’ll need to get himself back to a grappling focus - as we witnessed in the Magny win last time - to heighten his probability of success this weekend.

Forward pressure, fainting takedowns to set up his strikes, and leg kicks are noteworthy striking attributes of Burns. However, he’s easily suckered into a brawl, which could be a path for Masvidal as his crafty striking is perfect to capitalize against Burns with an offbeat rhyme on the feet that is hard to predict.

This is how Masvidal overcame noteworthy strikers like Nate Diaz, and with great head movement, faints, and counter strikes, setting up his strikes with faints by reading his opponent's reactions and delivering the follow-up strikes has been consistent during his career.

Over 2.5 Rounds: The UFC 287 Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review favor Burns, and so do I. Unfortunately, the moneyline price of -465 doesn’t provide the betting value we need. This contest is not as one-sided as the odds suggest, but at the same time, I don’t trust Masvidal enough to back the underdog.

This leads us to the Over 2.5 rounds - a viable betting position because the durability of both fighters has rarely failed during their respective careers. With only three rounds to get through, it feels like a safer stance on this bout.

UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (+107) at BetOnline [1u to win 1.07u]

UFC 287 Main Card & Odds

UFC 287 Preliminary Card & Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.