Twins vs. Yankees MLB Best Bet: Fade Minnesota in New York

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Don’t worry about the Minnesota Twins, or the chalk – the New York Yankees are the sharp choice at top-rated sportsbooks for Thursday’s baseball picks.

And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Twins vs. York Yankees and Braves vs. Nationals games.

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-137) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Yankees ML (-137)
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Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Thursday, June 06, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium

It always feels a bit strange whenever I recommend the New York Yankees for your picks. This is the most storied franchise in all the majors, with a cadre of supporters putting their money down and inflating the MLB odds for every game the Yankees play.

That’s one of the reasons we’re jumping in early for Thursday’s game between the Bombers (43-19, plus-15.90 betting units at press time) and the Minnesota Twins (33-27, plus-0.48 units). New York is priced as the –137 home favorite at Heritage Sports as I write this, shortly after the MLB lines first opened. There hasn’t been enough time yet for the madding crowd to move those odds.

Hopefully, that is still the case as you read this. But there’s another reason to bet on New York in this matchup: it’s a chance to bet against the Twins.

Why Should I Bet on the Yankees?

They’re the best team in baseball. That’s according to their plus-1.6 on the Simple Rating System at Baseball Reference, as well as their plus-111 run differential as we go to press.

Of course, being great at baseball isn’t what wins you cash – it’s outperforming public expectations. The Yankees are the second most profitable MLB betting team right now, behind only the Cleveland Guardians (plus-16.36 units), so they’ve obviously performed better than expected thus far.

Will it continue? Maybe not, given that the Yankees now have the best record in the American League after two months of play. But at least their win-loss record is one game worse than their expected “Pythagorean” record of 44-18. I’d be much more concerned if New York’s run differential were closer to zero.

Why Should I Bet Against the Twins?

That’s the reason right there: Minnesota’s run differential is plus-2, which suggests they’re really a 30-30 team in disguise.

Having said that, Baseball Reference is giving Minnesota the benefit of the doubt at plus-0.3 SRS. However, this is still an average team on paper, ranking No. 13 in hitting WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and No. 16 in pitching WAR at FanGraphs. The Yankees rank first and 10th respectively.

Who’s Pitching?

Here’s another reason to temper our enthusiasm – and our bet size – somewhat with New York: Marcus Stroman (4.23 xFIP) is starting Thursday’s matchup. Stroman is up 3.16 units this year on a team record of 8-4, but he hasn’t performed up to his 2.73 ERA; his opponents have left 83.3% of runners stranded, which suggests plenty of jams that Stroman has been forced to work out of.

Compare and contrast with Pablo Lopez (3.09 xFIP), who has pitched considerably better than his 4.84 ERA might lead you to believe. He’s seen just 67.5% of runners left on base, below his career average of 73.2%. Some better luck for Lopez on the basepaths would improve his team record of 6-6 (minus-1.35 units).

He’ll have a hard time trying his luck in New York. Current Yankees have a combined .976 lifetime OPS off Lopez, including 3-for-5 with a home run and two doubles for Aaron Judge (1.084 OPS on the season), who’s well on his way to another AL MVP campaign.

The batters in the Twins lineup have managed a respectable .746 lifetime OPS off Stroman, but that’s not nearly as problematic for New York as what the Yankees have done to Lopez. They’ve already won the first game of this three-game set; bet the finale accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-137) at Heritage Sports

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Yankees ML (-137)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.