Twins vs. Astros MLB Best Bet: Expect a Brown-Out in Houston

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Hunter Brown #58 celebrates with Yainer Diaz #21 of the Houston Astros at the end of the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves. Logan Riely/Getty Images/AFP

MLB Pick: Astros ML (-130) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Astros ML (-130)
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We have a typically full slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups Sunday with all 30 MLB teams in action. As usual, we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.

These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors an early side at 1:05 PM ET in the Twins vs. Astros matchup Sunday.

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

Sunday, June 02, 2024 – 01:05 PM ET at Minute Maid Park

This is our favorite kind of matchup as we expect opposite regressions from the two starting pitchers. Thus, we are betting Hunter Brown and the Astros at home hosting Simeon Woods-Richardson and the Twins.

Weak Peripherals

Woods-Richardson enters at 2-0 with 2.70 ERA through eight starts, but that is very deceptive considering his 4.35 xFIP. And as is usually the case, his peripherals more closely support the xFIP than the mostly underserved ERA.

Simeon combines a low strikeout rate of 6.75/9 with a low 38.0% groundball rate, which is usually a dangerous way to live. The low strikeout rate does not figure to change given his equally low swinging-strike rate of 7.3%. Furthermore, he has escaped all that air contact despite an unspectacular soft/hard contact ratio of 13.1% / 27.9%.

He is facing a Houston offense that is coming on after a slow start, now up to fifth in the majors in wRC+ against right-handers at 112.

Walks the Only Major Issue

Conversely, Brown comes in at 1-5 with an ERA almost four runs higher at 6.39. However, he has been extremely unlucky with a .353 BABIP allowed and a 66.8% strand rate. In fact, Brown has the better xFIP between these starters at a decent 3.81. He has admittedly struggled with walks at an ugly 4.38/9, but that may be alleviated somewhat here against an aggressive Twins offense ranked in the bottom third in walk rate offensively at just 8.1%.

Walks aside, Hunter grades out better than Woods-Richardson in most other metrics despite the bloated ERA. He combines a high strikeout rate of 9.67/9 with an excellent groundball rate of 50.3%. Moreover, he also owns the better soft/hard contact ratio here at 17.2% / 26.2%.

So, with positive regression expected for Brown and the opposite expected for Woods-Richardson, back the Astros in Houston Sunday.

Predicted Score: Astros 5 – Twins 3

MLB Pick: Astros ML (-130) at Heritage Sports

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Astros ML (-130)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.