Tigers vs. Astros MLB Best Bet: Brown to Tame Skubal in Houston

profile image of LTProfits

MLB Pick: Astros ML (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Astros ML (-105)
Visit Site

We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with every team in action. And we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.

These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Lone Star State, where our model favors a side when the Tigers visit the Astros.

If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Padres vs. Mets and Tigers vs. Astros games.

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Friday, June 14, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Minute Maid Park

While Tarik Skubal of the Tigers is a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate, we are betting on the hot Hunter Brown and the rejuvenated Astros at home on Friday.

Recovering from Poor April

The Astros are in an unfamiliar situation fighting for a playoff spot. However, they have played better after a horrific start, and this is a big series for them facing a Detroit team currently 2.5 games ahead of them in the wild-card race. And the performance of their starter Brown has mirrored that of his team.

You see, Hunter had a terrible April posting an 11.84 for the month, but he has bounced back nicely since then. Since the beginning of May, he has a 3.05 ERA and 3.41 xFIP over six starts with a nice strikeout rate of 10.10/9. While the ERA still stands at 5.58, he has lowered his xFIP to a more commendable 3.72 after tossing six scoreless innings last time out allowing only two hits.

He can now continue his comeback against a Tigers’ lineup with a below-average wRC+ of 94 against right-handers.

Cy Young Candidate, But…

Now, we have all the respect in the world for Skubal, who is having a legitimate Cy Young-caliber season. He ranks third in the majors in ERA (1.92), sixth in xFIP (2.59) and second in pitching WAR (2.7). However, he does not figure to get much run support tonight given Brown’s current form.

Furthermore, as great as Tarik has been, he has also been a bit lucky with an 81,8% strand rate and .267 BABIP. Yes, he can get out of jams with his strikeout rate at 10.85/9, but that strand rate is still probably unsustainable. That may be particularly true with the southpaw facing a Houston offense with a wRC+ of 110 against lefties.

So while Skubal is legit, Brown has been just as hot since April and has the much better offensive support. Back the Astros at a cheap price at home.

Predicted Score: Astros 4 – Tigers 2

MLB Pick: Astros ML (-105) at BetOnline

BetOnline logo
Astros ML (-105)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.