NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech Over 7½ Wins (-105) at BetOnline
With most of their skilled players back on offense, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are anxious to upset the NCAA football futures and claim their first Big 12 title.
Key Facts
- Texas Tech closed last season with 4 straight wins, 3 as the underdog.
- Quarterback Tyler Shough leads the Red Raiders on offense, and has his top 5 receivers back from a year ago.
- Texas Tech has a huge test in Week 2 against Oregon at home and closes the season on the road in Austin against Texas.
Texas Tech’s Ambitious Quest
According to philosopher Robert Earl Keen, the settlers traversing west back in the 1800s who decided to stop in the Texas Panhandle to make their homes “lacked ambition.” That may be true, but one thing Joey Mcguire and his Texas Tech won’t be lacking this season is ambition.
Part of that ambition is simply to become the first Red Raiders team to win a Big 12 football championship. And another part of that ambition is from the desire to keep Oklahoma and Texas, heavy favorites on the college football futures, to not enjoy their final seasons in the conference.
Odds
Texas Tech is fourth – and a rather distant fourth at +1000 – on the Big 12 list at BetOnline, trailing Texas (-110), Oklahoma (+425), and Kansas State (+700). The same shop is carrying 7½ for the win total, with a little extra juice on the ‘Under.’
Offense
Having an experienced quarterback returning is something Mcguire and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley are thankful for entering 2023. Tyler Shough, a 6-foot-5 senior from Arizona, took over the job last November and directed the Red Raiders to wins in their final four games, including a mild upset of Oklahoma.
Having experienced receivers back is something Shough is thankful for. The top 5 pass catchers from last year – Jerand Bradley, Xavier White, Myles Price, Loic Fouonji, and Nehemiah Martinez – are back in Lubbock, along with tight end Baylor Cupp.
There’s also more experience in the backfield with the return of Tahj Brooks, a 5-10, 230-pound senior who ran for nearly 700 yards and 7 TD last season.
Now, if the offensive line can protect a little better, the Red Raiders could be a nightmare for opposing defenses. Texas Tech was awful last year allowing 41 sacks, and one big addition is center Rusty Staats who transferred in from Western Kentucky.
Defense
Along with allowing sacks, the Red Raiders were also pretty good at sacking the other team’s QB, and Tyree Wilson was a huge factor there. Wilson was picked No. 7 overall in the NFL Draft, however, leaving a huge force for DC Tim DeRuyter to replace.
The good news is there is some beef in the middle of the D-line with Tony Bradford Jr. and Jaylon Hutchings, plus landing rush specialist Steve Linton from Syracuse in the transfer portal.
More good news is a solid group in the defensive backfield for DeRuyter. Safety S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson and corner Malik Dunlap lead that group.
The unit struggled to stop the run last year finishing 91st allowing close to 170 yards per game. If that facet of the defense doesn’t improve, Texas Tech is going to be a popular NCAA football pick with ‘Over’ bettors when a leaky defense is coupled with a high-octane offense.
The Schedule
It’s a strange slate for the first of at least two transitional years for the Big 12, and Texas Tech has a couple of tricky road dates on the conference fixture to land in the middle of the league as far as strength of schedule goes.
It all begins on the road with a non-conference trip up to Wyoming in Week 1. Most NCAAF odds boards are listing the Red Raiders as 2-TD favorites along with a 53-point total for that one, with very little movement on either number since openers went out.
Week 2 is when we should get our first good read on what Mcguire and the Red Raiders have. An Oregon team running second to USC on the PAC-12 futures comes to Lubbock, and the game will hold special meaning for Shough who began his college career with the Ducks.
A glorified scrimmage against Tarleton State follows, with a trip to West Virginia and a home date against Houston beginning Big 12 play and closing September.
A Week 6 trek to Baylor and Week 7 at home against Kansas State are must-wins if the Red Raiders are going to play for the conference title. They open November with a visit from TCU, then close the regular season with the huge matchup in Austin against Texas.
The Pick
The good news is Texas Tech won’t see Oklahoma, and that should help Mcguire and the Red Raiders cash ‘Over’ 7½ in the win column. A trip to the Big 12 Championship, well, that may be asking too much, regardless of how much ambition they have.
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech Over 7½ Wins (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product
Calculators
