NCAAF Pick: Over 7½ wins (-145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
After seven 10-win seasons over a decade, TCU fell on hard times, going 23-24 over the next four years. But Sonny Dykes not only got the Horned Frogs back to their previous heights but produced one of the best seasons in school history last year.
TCU swept through the regular season undefeated at 12-0. A three-point loss in the Big 12 Championship Game didn’t keep the Horned Frogs from getting a playoff bid, and Dykes’ squad upset Michigan in the national semifinals to advance to the title game. TCU was hammered by Georgia 65-7, but reaching the doorstep of the national title was an accomplishment no one predicted heading into last season.
Now TCU will try to follow up that performance while returning just 11 starters from 2022’s surprise team. How will they do in the 2023 season? Top offshore sportsbooks have set their season wins at 7½.
Key Facts
- After an undefeated regular season, TCU played for the national championship last season.
- The Horned Frogs return just 11 starters.
- TCU returns the quarterback who started last season.
Offense
The good news is that the Horned Frogs return the quarterback that started last season. The bad news is that’s not the guy that led TCU to the unbeaten season and title game appearance.
Chandler Morris won the starting job last year, but he was injured in the season opener, against Colorado. That paved the way for Max Duggan to step in and win Big 12 player of the year and become a Heisman finalist. Duggan is gone, but Morris is ready to pick up where he left off.
Getting Familiar
Morris will have to familiarize himself with the rest of the offense. TCU lost its top two rushers, top three receivers and 40% of its offensive line starters.
Savion Williams (29 catches, 392 yards) is the top returning receiver, but he’ll be joined by rising star tight end Jared Wiley and transfers from Alabama, Minnesota, Oklahoma State and LSU. TCU also brought in Trey Sanders from Alabama to lead the rushing attack. A third Alabama transfer—Tommy Brockermeyer—and Jackson State’s Willis Patrick will fill holes on the line.
Defense
TCU gave up 110 points in its two College Football Playoff games, and the Horned Frogs surrendered 30 or more points seven times last season.
Linebacker should be the strong spot on this side of the ball. Johnny Hodges and Jamoi Hodge both return at linebacker and were TCU’s top and third-leading tacklers last season, respectively. Shad Banks is expected to replace Dee Winters, who departed for the NFL, and the team has plenty of depth at ‘backer.
Rebuilding the Trenches
The line will need to be rebuilt with Dylan Horton and his 10.5 sacks gone. Damonic Williams was a freshman All-American at defensive tackle last season, and redshirt freshman Paul Oyewale will have to step up. But pass rush is still a question mark for the Frogs.
In the secondary, TCU returns Mark Perry, the team’s second-leading tackler last year, at safety. Corner Josh Newton and safety Nook Bradford combined for four picks and 20 pass defenses last year and will both return. Florida transfer Avery Helm will try to fill the vacancy left by Tre’Vius Hodges-Tonlinson who took his 15 pass defenses to the NFL.
2023 Schedule
The Big 12 is in the midst of transition as it welcomes four new members this season. As a result, there will be an unbalanced schedule, and TCU got a break with the conference foes it gets to dodge in the regular season.
TCU won’t play Oklahoma State and also misses newcomers Cincinnati and UCF. Kansas, who is expected to be much improved, is also not on the slate. The non-conference slate includes Colorado (Week 1), who was bad last year but should be much improved with new coach Deion Sanders and a transfer portal makeover. The Frogs also face Nicholls (Week 2) and SMU (Week 4).
The Big 12 schedule includes a trip to Houston (Week 3) and a game against BYU (Week 7). The final month is a tough one as TCU heads to Texas Tech, then hosts Texas (Week 11) and Baylor (Week 12) before finishing things off at Oklahoma (Week 13).
The Pick
With all the missing contributors from last year and a Big 12 schedule that looks significantly upgraded, an unbeaten regular season and return trip to the playoff seems unlikely.
The over/under cutoff is set at 7½ wins. If TCU can spit its final four games, the Horned Frogs can survive a loss or two earlier in the season. We’ve got the Horned Frogs pegged for eight wins for our NCAAF picks.
NCAAF Pick: Over 7½ Wins (-145) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product
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