The Super Bowl is inching closer and the wagering aspect, particularly against the spread, has been intriguing. Let’s break down the NFL odds to see who is where for the Big Game at the top-rated online sportsbooks!
Please take into account that the following splits are as of press time, at 1:00 pm ET on Wednesday, February 7th, 2024.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Joes vs. Pros – The Point Spread (49ers: -2)
- San Francisco 49ers – Handle: 36%, Tickets: 33%
- Kansas City Chiefs – Handle: 64%, Tickets: 67%
Once Kansas City defeated top-seeded Baltimore 17-10, various sportsbooks released San Francisco as a one-point favorite. Within the hour of that release, the 49ers had jumped to -2.
This suggested sharp money was moving the number, which was thought-provoking because the common belief is that supposed bettors in the know normally prefer underdogs.
Yet, when reviewing the numbers, the public is backing Patrick Mahomes, completely trusting his record as an underdog at a sensational 10-1-1 ATS.
Those on the San Fran bandwagon see the Niners as the better overall team with more productive offensive weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, along with QB Brock Purdy.
Kansas City doesn’t have the same group of wideouts as past Super Bowl participants and that is why 49ers backers feel the San Francisco defense can slow if not contain the Chiefs offense even with Mahomes.
It is still weird to see the public betting on the Super Bowl underdog, making the Joes vs. Pros scenario unique this year.
Public Believes You Don’t Bet Against Mahomes
Besides Mahomes’ sterling record as an underdog, the combination of him and Andy Reid gives Kansas City a presumed edge in game planning and likely execution.
That doesn’t take anything away from Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan, it’s just that the Chiefs duo has more big-game experience and success. This doesn’t guarantee victory, as plenty of inexperienced squads have won Super Bowls without top-notch quarterbacks.
Another aspect that comes into play is momentum.
Kansas City is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run and appears to be peaking. San Francisco has needed two playoff fourth-quarter comebacks to defeat Green Bay and Detroit, each at home. They failed to cover the spread either time as well.
It is interesting to note that of the 24 states where we could view the dollars taken in, only New Jersey, the second-largest betting market, is favoring the 49ers at over 60%.
Joes vs. Pros – The Total (O/U 47.5)
- San Francisco 49ers – Handle: 65%, Tickets: 66%
- Kansas City Chiefs – Handle: 35%, Tickets: 34%
The total to this juncture has been quieter than an abandoned warehouse. The total has not budged and almost from the get-go the Over has received 2-to-1 action on bets and the handle.
This should not come as a surprise because the public favors higher-scoring contests and they normally bet accordingly.
When these teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago, the closing total was 53, and only the Chiefs’ 21-0 fourth-quarter blitz made the total even close to the price. This year, scoring is down across the league, big plays are down and these are the #2 (K.C.) and #3 (S.F.) scoring defenses.
Of the various websites we checked that have AI-driven prognostications, the Under is running 65 to 70 percent.
This reporter contacted 24 well-known or accomplished football bettors, 12 were on the Over, 10 on the Under and the other two were passing. None of these bettors said they would make a larger bet on the total and half suggested they would use the Under 53.5 as part of a teaser bet.
Joes vs. Pros – The Moneyline (49ers: -122)
- San Francisco 49ers – Handle: 33%, Tickets: 22%
- Kansas City Chiefs – Handle: 64%, Tickets: 78%
As is always the case in the Super Bowl, when it comes to the moneyline, the underdog is the play with rare exceptions.
As the top reason, most public bettors are after a bigger score in terms of cash. While they seldom make large bets, the sure volume of wagers placed will favor the underdog.
Favorites are 35-21 SU on Super Bowl Sunday, with the 1982 matchup a Pick ‘Em. However, in the last 22 Big Games, the underdog is 16-6 ATS and 11-11 SU. Thus, backing the underdog SU long-term has been a winner.
However, with the spread this tight, those convinced that San Francisco will win, won’t be afraid of taking -120 to -130, not wanting to lose by a point or getting a push thanks to the outcome of a two-point conversion or a missed extra point.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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