NFL Pick: Super Bowl LVIII Exact Matchup: Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills +5000 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
If you are not confident in who will win Super Bowl LVIII, then you can always place a bet on which teams will reach the big game in February 2024.
Top U.S. betting sites like BetOnline offers a market for the exact matchup in Super Bowl LVIII. You do not have to predict which team wins the game, but you have to correctly predict the AFC and NFC teams to play in the game.
As expected, the matchup with the best NFL odds is a rematch of Super Bowl VLII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles +1725 at BetOnline. However, in the 57-year history of the Super Bowl, only once has there been a repeat rematch: Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills in 1992 and 1993.
A rematch of the last two Super Bowl losers (Eagles and Bengals) has the 2nd-highest odds at +2200 but most choices are +3100 and much higher. With value like this to be had, it is worth looking into the best bets for predicting this Super Bowl LVIII matchup.
Bet on a Chiefs-Eagles Rematch?
As we said above, picking a rematch from last year is always a go-to pick despite happening one time ever in the Super Bowl era. This year would also not be the first time (or the 10th time) someone will say “but it really looks like it could happen this time.”
For starters, the Chiefs have to overcome no team repeating as champions since 2003-04, the longest drought in NFL history. They also have won their division 7 years in a row, and that is the 2nd-longest streak in NFL history.
The Eagles play in a division where no team has repeated as division champions since 2004, the longest active drought in the NFL by far. The NFC also loves finding fresh blood as only the 2013-14 Seahawks have gone to back-to-back Super Bowls in the NFC in the last 25 seasons.
Yes, it could still be Chiefs vs. Eagles again as many teams in the NFL are going through rebuilds, big transitions, and laying foundations for the future. However, that rematch should not be your biggest or your only bet on this market, but it is worth at least one slip in July.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LVIII Exact Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs +1725 at BetOnline
Super Bowl Trends You Must Know
It is a fact that most Super Bowl teams are teams who were successful in the previous season and have been working towards this point as these facts show:
- Among the 57 Super Bowl winners, 40 of them (70.2%) were in the divisional round of the playoffs or better in the previous season.
- In the last 40 Super Bowls, 80% of the winners (32) made the playoffs the previous year and 62.5% of the losers (25) also made the playoffs the previous season.
- Since 1990, 17 of the 33 Super Bowls (51.5%%) were between teams who both made the playoffs in the previous season, so just over half the time that happens.
- Nine of the last 10 Super Bowl winners had preseason Super Bowl odds of +2000 or better – only the 2017 Eagles were +4000.
Let’s focus on those teams with good preseason odds. In 2023, the 9 teams with odds of +2000 or better to win the Super Bowl include the following 6 AFC and 3 NFC teams (odds via BetOnline):
- Kansas City Chiefs +600
- Philadelphia Eagles +700
- Cincinnati Bengals +850
- San Francisco 49ers +1000
- Buffalo Bills +1200
- New York Jets +1400
- Dallas Cowboys +1600
- Miami Dolphins +1800
- Baltimore Ravens +2000
While the Super Bowl LVIII winner may very well come from this list, that does not necessarily mean both Super Bowl participants will be teams from this list. If we look at data from Pro Football Reference, the recent Super Bowl loser has often been a team that was not expected to get that far in the preseason.
Preseason Super Bowl Odds for Super Bowl Losers Since 2015 via Pro Football Reference:
- 2022 Eagles: +2440 (13th)
- 2021 Bengals: +15000 (29th-tied)
- 2020 Chiefs: +450 (1st)
- 2019 49ers: +4000 (16th-tied)
- 2018 Rams: +1000 (2nd-tied)
- 2017 Patriots: +275 (1st)
- 2016 Falcons: +8000 (23rd-tied)
- 2015 Panthers: +6000 (21st-tied)
However, if you are going to make the right pick, you should choose at least one of the 9 teams from the list above to reach the Super Bowl. The last 22 Super Bowls all had at least one team who ranked at least No. 8 in preseason Super Bowl odds with odds of +1800 or better.
The last Super Bowl with two underdogs was in 2000 between the Ravens (+2200, ranked 11th) and Giants (+6000, tied for 23rd). That was also during a weird transition period for the NFL in 1999-2003 after several Hall of Fame quarterbacks retired.
Make sure you include at least one favorite, but what about those underdogs in 2023?
The Longshots
NFC Surprises in the Playoffs
If there is any value in the 23 teams with odds longer than +2000 to win the Super Bowl, it is likely coming in the NFC where you have an easier path to the playoffs where anything can happen in a one-and-done setting.
The Rams (+6600 to win Super Bowl at BetOnline) are a longshot after finishing 5-12, the worst season ever for a defending champion. But Sean McVay has already twice coached his team to the Super Bowl, and he hopefully will have a healthier year than his stars who were injured last year (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald).
The team is not in title shape like it was in 2021, the culmination of a 5-year run under McVay involving trades that mortgaged the future for immediate results. However, this is about longshots, and as one of the only coaches and quarterbacks in the league who can say they won a Super Bowl, the Rams have some of the right stuff.
You can get Rams vs. Chiefs, the 54-51 rematch we should have seen in 2018 or 2021, for +8600 odds.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LVIII Exact Matchup: Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs +8600 at BetOnline
AFC Potential with Jaguars and Broncos
From the AFC side, it would not be unreasonable to work in some matchups with the Jaguars (+2500 to win it all) and Broncos (+5500) as coaching does matter, and someone who can coach the quarterback position matters the most.
Doug Pederson already has one Super Bowl after coaching up Carson Wentz and Nick Foles back in 2017 with the Eagles. His team overcame a 27-0 deficit in the playoffs against the Chargers and played the Chiefs tough.
Maybe Trevor Lawrence can take that next step forward with the arrival of Calvin Ridley, so a hedge on the Super Bowl with the top three contenders (Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys) is worth pursuing. You can get Jaguars vs. 49ers at +7700.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LVIII Exact Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +7700 at BetOnline
Can Denver Broncos Achieve Instant Turnaround with Wilson?
As for Denver, Sean Payton has the experience of leading the Saints to the NFC Championship Game after Hurricane Katrina back when he was a rookie in 2006. Unfortunately, he has not returned to the Super Bowl since the 2009 season, but with a defense in the fold and a Hall of Fame quarterback in Russell Wilson to fix, Payton might pull off one of the all-time instant turnarounds in NFL history.
If it sounds too far-fetched, keep in mind Gary Kubiak won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning playing his worst football back in 2015, the last time Denver made the playoffs. Do not put a lot of units on it, but the redemption bowl between the Broncos and Cowboys feels like the kind of longshot pick you want to make in July.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LVIII Exact Matchup: Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos +20000 at BetOnline
Arriving at Our Best Super Bowl Matchup Bet
Most oddsmakers and analysts would probably agree that each conference has a “Big 3” going into the 2023 season. For the 3rd year in a row, the AFC is the battle royale involving the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills. The NFC is led by the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys, and Dallas has been eliminated by the 49ers in each of the last two postseasons.
Our best bet for the Super Bowl LVIII matchup is coming from these groups, but it is the least likely of all the potential matchups, which is why it has the most profitable odds. Also, our top NLF pick for Super Bowl LVIII is a Super Bowl rematch but not the one you probably had in mind. We are going with the Dallas Cowboys to take on the Buffalo Bills.
Both teams embody the recent competitor aspect of most Super Bowl teams, and both teams showed elite performance on both sides of the ball. Last season, the Bills and Cowboys were the only teams ranked in the top 5 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
In 2022, the Bills and Cowboys became the 13th and 14th teams in NFL history to score 27-plus points in at least 9 consecutive games, but they are only the 2nd and 3rd teams on that list to not play in a title game for the seasons involved with those streaks.
Sometimes, your best team is not the one that gets to the Super Bowl, but your healthiest, most complete team is the one that gets it done. We saw this with the Colts in 2006, the Packers in 2010, the Ravens in 2012, the Broncos in 2015, and even the Chiefs last year would qualify given how offensively dependent they were.
Bills’ Potential
Many times, teams have to overcome adversity and bad playoff losses before putting it all together for a Super Bowl run.
The Bills looked bad against Cincinnati in the divisional round, but the team was emotionally wasted after the Damar Hamlin situation late in the year. Maybe 2023 is the year Josh Allen continues his strong play throughout the second half of a season, and edge rusher Von Miller stays healthy for the playoff run after tearing his ACL last Thanksgiving.
The Bills are also a team capable of going into Arrowhead and having Allen outduel Mahomes for a win as they were 13 seconds away from winning 3 in a row in that building since 2021.
A lot of hype is going to Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets, but that team has a long way to go from missing the last 12 postseasons to a Super Bowl with a 40-year-old quarterback who has only been there once himself. Maybe the Bills can play the underdog role and sneak into the playoffs with fewer expectations before making their big run.
Cowboys’ Potential
As for Dallas, it is hard to pick a team coached like this to deliver in consecutive playoff games, but it still feels like we have yet to see the best Dak Prescott can be under Mike McCarthy. They get a new offensive coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer, which may prove to be detrimental, or it could lead to running back Tony Pollard being an All-Pro and lessening the workload on Prescott, who had awful luck with tipped interceptions in 2022.
The defense has led the league in takeaways the last two years, and while that should finally regress, they were legitimately one of the best at getting stops last year, led by a mega talent in Micah Parsons.
The Cowboys also beat the Eagles in their last matchup with Prescott scoring 40 points on that vaunted defense. Neither matchup saw both teams have their starting quarterback, so hopefully we can see two games of Prescott vs. Jalen Hurts in 2023 to really decide that division.
The 49ers have been a problem for the Cowboys, but you can never count on a Kyle Shanahan team to consistently be there in the end. The 49ers also have an uncertain quarterback situation with Brock Purdy having to not only prove he is legitimate but that he can function just fine after the elbow injury.
Trey Lance is still unknown at this point too, and the insurance policy of Jimmy Garoppolo is gone.
Old Rivals, New Hope
The Bills are still infamously looking for that first Super Bowl win. The Cowboys have notoriously not been back to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season, but maybe 2023 is finally the year they collide again in the Super Bowl after putting some tough playoff losses in recent years behind them.
When something old is new again.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LVIII Exact Matchup: Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills +5000 at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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