MLB Pick: Over 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a big 16-slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday due to a make-up doubleheader. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in Los Angeles, where our model likes a total when the Royals visit the Dodgers.
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, June 16, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
There is cause for concern over the recent performances of Brady Singer of the Royals, and that is enough to have us betting the Over facing Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers.
Singer Off Key
Singer is 4-3 with a solid 3.30 ERA and 3.39 xFIP coming in, but all does not seem right given his reduced velocity as of late. That reduction has led to just one Quality Start in his last five outings, with just a 4.97 ERA over this current stretch. Normally we could chalk a five-game streak up to variance, but the velocity gives a legitimate reason for the drop-off.
Brady’s velocity peaked at 92.4 MPH five starts ago, but it has dropped to an average of only 91.2 MPH since then, helping lead to a very low swinging-strike rate of 7.1% in those starts. And all of that culminated with a putrid 4.9% swinging-strike rate last time out when he was roughed up for seven runs in 5.2 innings.
Now, he must deal with a Dodgers’ lineup ranked third in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 118.
Royals Can Score
Granted, Glasnow deserves better than just a 6-5 record pitching for a team that is 43-29, as he has a 3.24 ERA and his 2.40 xFIP is the second-best in baseball. The good news for the Over though is that if the Dodgers tee off on Singer as we expect, then Glasnow would not need to allow much to clear this total.
And Tyler is coming off a start where he allowed five runs and two home runs in six innings. He is also facing a Kansas City lineup that does not strike out much, in fact sporting the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league at 18.5%. That has helped propel the Royals to the fifth most runs in the majors, so as good as Glasnow is, we do not think he will go unscathed.
With Singer not looking right while facing a great offense, and Glasnow expected to allow at least a few runs, back the Over in LA on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 7 – Royals 3
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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