We have a typical schedule of 15 Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday, with 14 afternoon games plus Sunday Night Baseball. And we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model as per the MLB odds at the top-rated sportsbooks. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in Anaheim, where our model favors a side when the Royals visit the Angels.
MLB Best Bet: Angels ML (+119) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sunday, May 12, 2024 – 04:07 PM ET at Angel Stadium
We feel that there will be an upset in Anaheim on Sunday, so we are backing southpaw Patrick Sandoval and the Angels at home hosting Seth Lugo and the Royals.
Rounding to Form
Sandoval enters at an underwhelming 2-5 with a 4.85 ERA through eight starts. However, the xFIP paints a prettier picture at 3.46, as does his nice strikeout rate of 10.38/9. Patrick has been extremely unlucky with a .361 BABIP allowed and 60.5% strand rate, pointing to positive regression ahead,
And perhaps the best news may be that the regression may already be in progress with Sandoval coming off probably his two best starts of the season. He allowed a total of two runs and seven hits over those two starts with 17 strikeouts against three walks in 12 innings.
We now expect that improvement to continue against a Royals team that struggles against left-handers, ranking 21st in wRC+ at just 88.
Negative Regression in Order?
The Royals have been a pleasant surprise at 24-17, as has Lugo at 5-1 with a 1.74 ERA. But we are not buying into a 34-year-old suddenly having a career year, and that belief is supported by his much worse 4.21 xFIP. Seth has benefited from a .235 BABIP allowed and a 91.9% strand rate, neither of which is sustainable.
Lugo has seen a big reduction in his strikeout rate to 6.27/9 from 8.61/9 just last year, with the low BABIP masking the increased contact. The strikeout rate does not figure to improve either with the swinging-strike rate at a career-low 7.8%. And much of the contact has been hard with a shaky soft/hard contact ratio of 17.5% / 32.5%.
MLB Best Bet
So, despite the deceptive ERAs for both starters, Sandoval is the one that grades out much better based on the peripherals. That makes the Angels the bet here as home underdogs.
Predicted Score: Angels 5 – Royals 4
MLB Best Bet: Angels ML (+119) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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