MLB Pick: Over 9 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with last night’s Rickwood Field Game participants getting a day off. We are on a 4-1-1 run and have three more plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds available at top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Queen City of Cincinnati, where our model likes a total when the Red Sox visit the Reds.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday, June 21, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park
We are not believers in Andrew Abbott of the Reds, especially facing a Boston offense in its best split. With the Reds also expected to score at least a few runs against Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox, bet the Over in Cincinnati.
Shaky Metrics
The southpaw Abbott comes in with a 3.42 ERA, but his metrics tell the real story. His xFIP is considerably worse at 4.74, as he combines a weak K/BB ratio of 6.84/2.25 per nine innings with a low groundball rate of 33.8%. And batters are getting good looks at him with his swinging-strike rate all the way down to 8.2% from 10.9% in his rookie season last year.
Yet, Andrew has somehow escaped with a fortunate 83.5% strand rate and a .249 BABIP allowed. We do not expect that luck to continue against a Red Sox offense that for some reason has been much more productive on the road (115 wRC+) than at home (94). Furthermore, that wRC+ rises to a whopping 126 against left-handers on the road, which is fourth best in baseball in that specific split.
Need Not Surrender Much
Now, we actually like Crawford as his 3-6 record is mostly due to a lack of run support, which we do not think will be an issue tonight. After all, he does have a 3.54 ERA and 3.93 xFIP. Still, if we are correct about Boston getting to Abbott, then Crawford may not need to allow many runs to clear this Over.
Just about the only issue we have with Kutter is his increased walk rate this year relative to previous seasons, currently at 2.72/9. That could be an issue against a Cincinnati offense that has the eighth-best walk rate in the majors offensively at 8.9%. Thus, those free passes should lead to at least some damage, which may be all that is needed to cash our ticket.
The Pick
The combination of Abbott’s deceptive ERA expected to take a hit against a Boston offense at a great split and Crawford’s propensity for walks facing a team that draws them has us backing the Over Friday.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 7 – Reds 4
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-125) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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