Top NFL Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In a match-up between Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, what should we expect on Sunday Night Football in the NFC Wild Card round between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams? Let’s go through it with our NFL odds in hand and see what our best move is at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Ford Field
Quarterback Showdown
The Detroit Lions aren’t used to the spotlight. It’s been a long time since the Lions have been in the playoffs.
Detroit had a sensational season, going 12-5 this year. However, despite winning in Week 18 over the Minnesota Vikings, the Lions might’ve lost Sam LaPorta for a game or two due to a hyperextension of the knee.
The Lions didn’t have to play their starters last week. However, head coach Dan Campbell insisted on playing his normal depth chart. It certainly backfired after LaPorta was carted off the field and into the locker room. There’s optimism that LaPorta could play in this game. However, it’s still unlikely, and it’s going to sting without him. LaPorta was second on the team in receptions and added 889 yards receiving yards with ten receiving touchdowns.
Detroit’s offense should still be ok. The Lions averaged 27.12 points per game and added over 258 yards per game in the air under Jared Goff. Goff threw for over 4,500 yards and added 30 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions on the season. He’ll now take on his former team that traded him for Matthew Stafford.
Matthew Stafford was a Lions legend but won a Super Bowl with the Rams a couple of years ago. Stafford is still loved by the Lions, but that won’t be the case on Sunday night. Stafford has thrown for 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and has thrown for just under 4,000 yards passing. Goff’s numbers are better, but Stafford has experience and a Super Bowl victory.
Mirror Match
This will be a fun matchup between the two quarterbacks, who were each traded for one another a few years back.
The expectation is that both offenses click. The Lions and Rams have both struggled in the secondary. They’ve also both missed tackles at a high rate this season. The Lions have only allowed 88.76 yards on the ground, while the Rams have given up 106.82 yards rushing per game this year. However, both run defenses have been consistent this year.
The pass rushes have also been excellent for both teams this season. If anything, both defenses are very similar, allowing more than 22 points each per game this season.
Stafford and Goff have some of the best targets in the NFL. Stafford found rookie Puka Nacua 105 times for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jared Goff added 119 receptions to Amon-Ra St. Brown, as he totaled 1,515 yards with ten touchdowns.
On top of that, both teams have a 1,000-yard rusher. The Lions have more depth between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but Kyren Williams’ breakout with the Rams was just as spectacular after he added 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns on 228 carries.
Ultimately, the Lions have been more consistent and have more playmakers and depth on the roster. At home, I’ll side with the Lions at -3.5.
NFL Pick: Lions -3.5 (-110) via BetOnline
What About The Total?
While I like the Lions at -3.5, the total is where I’m putting more units. The Rams and Lions have each allowed more than 230 yards passing per game. The coverage has struggled for both teams throughout the season, and the missed tackles won’t help keep any player in front.
Jared Goff wants to prove himself against Stafford, and Stafford has weapons like Nacua and Cooper Kupp to keep his offense playing at a high level.
While both teams have been very solid against the run this season, both teams can run the ball effectively and open up the passing game rather quickly. The run-blocking out of the Rams and Lions has been very good, and the runners on both teams, as mentioned above, have been fantastic.
The Rams are balanced with multiple receivers and a terrific running back. The Lions might not have LaPorta, but they’ll just find ways to use Jahmyr Gibbs more. He proved that he was the most prolific running back in the league this season after averaging 5.2 yards a carry on 182 attempts this season.
We’re going to get a high-scoring game between the Lions and Rams. Detroit will escape, but the Over will certainly hit.
NFL Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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