Total NFL Pick: Over 50 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Green Bay Packers will travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a Saturday night divisional round showdown. Let’s check out the latest NFL odds and keep cashing at our main offshore sportsbooks!
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
- Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against an NFC West opponent.
- San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
Packers Lasso Cowboys
The Packers advanced to the divisional round courtesy of a stunning upset of the juggernaut Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay bolted to a 27-0 lead before Dallas answered with their first score of the game shortly before the half.
But Jordan Love was surgically precise in his strikes, connecting on 16-of-21 for 272 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. Romeo Doubs was the object of his aerial affection throughout the afternoon. He caught all six passes thrown to him for 151 receiving yards and a touchdown.
However, it was Aaron Jones who went off in this one. He had 118 rushing yards and three trips inside the end zone. Jones has been building to this moment after spending much of the season plagued by nagging injuries. Over the past several weeks he’s gotten healthier. His performances have also been noticeably better, culminating in his finest game of the season when it counted.
49ers Enjoy the Bye
While the rest of the conference was battling this weekend, the 49ers were resting and preparing for their date with the lowest prevailing seed emerging from the wild card round. They found out on Sunday night that their opponents would be the upstart Green Bay Packers, a team whom they coincidentally last met two years ago in the divisional round of the playoffs in which they claimed a 13-10 victory at Lambeau as 6-point road dogs.
The last time the Niners took the field was in a meaningless Week 18 contest against the LA Rams. Sam Darnold got the start in place of Brock Purdy. Many of San Francisco’s other starters watched from the safety of the bench as it was more important for head coach Kyle Shanahan that his team remained healthy rather than emerge victorious. Darnold ended with only 189 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the 49ers rushing attack chewed up 125 yards in a 21-20 loss to the Rams.
Comparing Teams
These teams have not met this season so there are no recent matchups to analyze. However, we do know that the Packers have caught fire down the stretch of the season. Much of that has to do with the health of running back Aaron Jones.
The 29-year-old jitterbug has been hampered by injuries this season. But for this matchup, it’s safe to say he’s overcome those issues. He is now delivering impressive performances game after game. Starting on December 24th against Carolina. In that game, he ran for 127 yards in the team’s 33-30 victory over the hapless Panthers.
Jones followed that up with 120 and 111 yards against the Vikings and Bears, respectively, while churning out 118 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys on Sunday.
The Packers have won all four of those contests and Jordan Love has been the primary beneficiary. In those most recent four games, Love has averaged nearly 266 passing yards with a 73.5 completion percentage and 10 touchdowns with no picks.
The defenses have been so concerned with containing Jones that Love has had extra time in the pocket and the dividends it has paid have been evident.
Rest vs. Momentum
There is no denying the 49ers are a powerhouse. They should never be underestimated but I made this line San Francisco -7 before I even looked at what the oddsmakers were hanging on this one. A 10-point head start for a Packers team coming together at just the right time is too many in my estimation.
Let’s take a look at the teams that the 49ers have lost to this season. The Browns, Vikings, Bengals, and Ravens with a meaningless loss to the Rams. It’s safe to say that the way the Packers are playing right now, they are better than all of those teams with the exception of the Ravens.
And while the Niners are well-rested, the Packers are riding a wave and this is not the kind of team that rests on its laurels.
The Pick
In some circumstances, I would view the following game after a big win, like the one Green Bay had over Dallas, as cause for a letdown. But when facing a team of the caliber of the 49ers and in a divisional round game, I say that’s off the table.
There are just too many points being given to the road dog in this one. I see plenty of scoring in this matchup with the Packers keeping it within the margins.
NFL Pick: Packers +10 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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