Orioles vs. White Sox MLB Best Bet: Crochet to Weave Past Bradish on Sunday

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Garrett Crochet #45 of the Chicago White Sox throws a pitch during the fourth inning of a game against the Cleveland Guardians at Guaranteed Rate Field on May 10, 2024. Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images/AFP

Editor’s note: The game has been postponed due to a rain delay and will start at 3:50 PM ET, as per MLB.

We have a full Sunday slate of 15 MLB betting matchups for Memorial Day weekend, with the action starting early at 11:35 AM ET. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds offered by the top-rated sportsbooks.

These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a side in the Windy City Sunday with the Orioles visiting the White Sox.

Check out our other two MLB best bets for more of today’s content.

MLB Best Bet: White Sox ML (+135) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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White Sox ML (+135)
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox

Sunday, May 26, 2024 – 03:50 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field

While these teams are on opposite sides of the standings, we like the underdog value Garrett Crochet provides for the White Sox Sunday taking on Kyle Bradish and the Orioles.

Biggest Team Highlight

The White Sox are languishing in last place in the AL Central at 15-38, but Crochet may be the team MVP so far with a third of the team’s wins sitting with a winning 5-4 mark. And truth be told, he probably deserves a better record given his 3.75 ERA and more eye-popping 2.76 xFIP. That xFIP ranks sixth in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings.

Garrett was exclusively a relief pitcher his first three seasons in the majors, but the White Sox named him the surprising opening day starter this year and he has rewarded their faith in him. He has maintained his velocity as a starter averaging 97.0 MPH with the ability to approach triple-digits when necessary.

The end-result has been an excellent K/BB ratio of 11.55/2.03 per nine innings with his swinging-strike rate all the way up to 13.8% from 9.6% as a reliever last year.

Good but Overpriced

Now, the Orioles sit three games behind the Yankees in the AL East and Bradish is not a bad pitcher by any means. 

But we simply do not feel he should be this big of a road favorite given the excellence that Crochet has shown thus far. Bradish has made just four starts this season, and while he has no record, he does have a good 2.41 ERA and 3.25 xFIP

Those numbers line up with his best Major League season last year when he posted a 2.83 ERA and 3.53 xFIP.

MLB Best Bet

However, Kyle’s peripherals have not been quite as good as Crochet’s other than his strikeout rate of 11.09/9. His walk rate is considerably higher at a slightly alarming 3.38/9, and even the strikeout rate may be unsustainable given the slightly above average 10.8% swinging-strike rate.

Therefore, we give Crochet the better chance of sustaining his success long-term and are thus calling for an upset here, betting the White Sox as nice underdogs.

Predicted Score: White Sox 4 – Orioles 3

MLB Best Bet: White Sox ML (+135) at Bookmaker

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White Sox ML (+135)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.