MLB Pick: Under 9 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The 2024 Major League Baseball season is now in full swing with 28 of the 30 MLB teams in action Wednesday. We are making our season debut with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value offered by the top sportsbooks at the current betting odds.
As for my third selection that catches my attention: the Baltimore Orioles going head-to-head with the Boston Red Sox.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, April 10, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
We look for both starting pitchers to have success when Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox host Cole Irvin and the Orioles, so we are betting the Under in Boston Wednesday night.
Steady as Starter
Crawford had two shaky starts before being delegated to the bullpen last year, but he was at his best after being re-instated in the rotation last June 3rd. From that date forward, he made 21 starts and allowed three earned runs or less in 16 of them while posting a nice K/BB ratio of 9.56 / 2.74 per 9.
Well, Kutter has picked up where he left off in his first two starts this season, allowing just one earned run so far in 10.2 innings with 12 strikeouts. He is facing a Baltimore offense that is yet to get on track, ranking 18th in the majors with a wRC+ of 94, or 6% below average. Yes, the Orioles scored seven runs while winning the series opener yesterday, but only four runs were earned due to shoddy Boston defense.
Decent Arsenal
Irvin may not be an elite starter, and he is not as good as his 3.98 ERA with Oakland in 2022, but he does project as a decent fourth or fifth starter. His 4.42 ERA in his first season with the Orioles last season lined up with his 4.49 xFIP, so that should be his proper level.
However, he can be successful tonight since the Red Sox are just one spot better than the Orioles in wRC+, ranked 17th at 96. Furthermore, Boston has been a bit worse against lefties like Irvin at 90, or 10% below average. And while Irvin is lacking velocity at 92.6 MPH, he actually has Plus ratings for all three of his secondary pitches, his curveball, cutter and change-up.
The Pick
So with Crawford continuing his success of last year, two offenses both below average in wRC+ and Irvin crafty enough, bet the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 4 – Orioles 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-118) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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