MLB Pick: Under 9 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a bigger than normal slate of 16 Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday, due to a doubleheader between the Rangers and Athletics.
We are back with our three plays for Wednesday that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds at the top sportsbooks. Despite eight afternoon games, all our best bets are at night.
For our first best bet, our proprietary model favors a total in the Orioles vs. Nationals matchup.
Check out our other MLB expert picks:
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, May 08, 2024 – 06:45 PM ET at Nationals Park
In a matchup of two promising starters in Kyle Bradish of the Orioles and Mitchell Parker of the Nationals, we are betting the Under in Washington on Wednesday.
Promising 2024 Debut
Bradish was one of the best pitchers in a lackluster Baltimore rotation last season, finishing at 12-7 with a spiffy 2.83 ERA and 3.53 xFIP over 30 starts with a nice strikeout rate of 8.96/9 over 168.2 innings. He began this season on the injured list, but he had a promising season debut against the tough Yankees lineup last Thursday.
Kyle allowed just one run on four hits over 4.2 innings with five strikeouts, and he should now be sufficiently stretched out to work longer tonight. He averaged 94.4 MPH on his fastball and a better 94.9 MPH on his sinker, both in line with last year. And that heavy sinker generated a 58.3% groundball rate in his initial 2024 start, so he seems primed to continue his 2023 success.
Rookie of the Year Candidate?
Parker has not looked like the rookie that he is over his first four Major League starts, posting a 2.53 ERA and 3.11 xFIP over 21.1 innings with a very good K/BB ratio of 8.02/1.69 per nine innings. He has been a key part of the Nationals’ surprising 18-17 start and may even garner some Rookie of the Year votes if his success continues.
Parker will not blow anyone away with a 92.6 MPH fastball, but he also has a split-finger fastball. He throws with the same motion at 85.6 MPH. That has led to the nice strikeout rate with hitters being out in front anticipating the heater. Mitchell also has a curveball he can throw for strikes, so the potential is certainly there for a nice Major League career.
Additionally, both starters tonight have good bullpen support with the Baltimore pen ranked third in xFIP (3.39) and Washington ranked 10th (3.77).
The Pick
So, with a lot to like about both starting pitchers and both bullpens in the top 10 in xFIP, bet the Under in this Beltway Series matchup.
Predicted Score: Orioles 4 – Nationals 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-113) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
