NCAAF Pick: Georgia -14 (-104) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Florida State has been upsetting the NCAAF odds all season on the way to an unbeaten record. Can the Seminoles do it one more time and close out a perfect schedule to upset the CFP Selection Committee by beating 2-time defending champ Georgia? Let’s find out while deciding which is the safest bet at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, December 30, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
It would be the equivalent of a full chicken farm’s worth of eggs on the faces of Boo Corrigan and his fellow CFP selection committee members, and in the spirit of full disclosure, I hope Florida State does beat Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
1st Meeting Since 2003 Sugar Bowl
It would also be one of the bigger bowl upsets in this or any other bowl season. Bookmaker is carrying Georgia -14, and tacking on extra juice for Bulldog bets like most shops. In what is expected to be a defensive battle, scoreboard bettors are looking at a 44½-point total.
By the time the Bulldogs and Seminoles line up for the kickoff, it will be two days shy of 21 years since they last met. That matchup took place at the 2003 Sugar Bowl, and Georgia capped a 13-1 season with a 26-13 win over Florida State.
The Bulldogs found themselves in Florida State’s current situation at the time, ranked No. 3 and sitting just outside the BCS matchup between unbeatens Ohio State and Miami.
Georgia and Florida State used to meet regularly in the 1950s and 1960s when nine of their 11 clashes took place. Before the 2003 Sugar Bowl, they’d only met once in 35+ years, and the Bulldogs own a 6-4-1 edge across the history of the rivalry.
Both Sides Missing Key Defensive Pieces
Regardless of where one stands on the decision Corrigan and the selection committee ultimately made about this year’s CFP matchups, among the collateral damage from is missing the potential for a collision between head coaches Mike Norvell and Washington’s Kalen DeBoer.
The good news is we get to see Norvel match wits with Kirby Smart of Georgia. And we get to see both Norvel and Smart – like every other coach preparing for a bowl – make do without some of the players who made them popular college football picks during the regular season.
Smart and the Bulldogs will be playing without the services of linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who led the team in sacks and was seventh in tackles. Dumas-Johnson entered the transfer portal along with backup CB AJ Harris and 2nd-string QB Brock Vandagriff.
Florida State’s stellar defensive unit has also taken some hits, and it could get worse if rumors surrounding lineman Joshua Farmer entering the transfer portal are true. Linebacker DJ Lundy, third on the team with 54 tackles, has decided to leave Tallahassee, while Farmer (32 tackles, 5 sacks) has been busy denying reports he will skip town.
Freshman Rodney Hill, a reserve running back who appeared in 10 games and ran for 190 yards on 50 carries, is also transferring from Florida State, along with four reserve offensive linemen.
‘Noles a Ragtag Bunch on Offense
The loss of Hill and backup O-line uglies might not sound like much, but the Seminoles’ offense has already been decimated by injury and early preps for the 2024 NFL Draft. Florida State will once again be playing with 3rd-string QB Brock Glenn due to the season-ending knee injury to No. 1 Jordan Travis and No. 2 Tate Rodemaker sitting in concussion protocol.
Trey Benson, who led the Seminoles with 905 yards rushing, has declared for the draft along with wide receiver Johnny Wilson, second on the team in catches (41) and receiving yards (617).
Florida State leaned on Benson heavily in the season finale against rival Florida before upsetting the numbers in the ACC Championship against Louisville. And Wilson’s physical 6-7, 230-lb frame was a defensive coordinator’s matchup nightmare.
Bowl History & Betting Trends
Georgia has won 37 of its previous 61 bowl games, including the last six in a row. This is the fifth Orange Bowl appearance for the Bulldogs who have won three of the previous four, the most recent a 34-14 win over Michigan on New Year’s Eve 2021 in a CFP semifinal.
The Bulldogs’ 6-bowl win streak includes four during the last two seasons when they earned consecutive national championships. Georgia covered the odds in four of the bowls during the current streak, totals running 2-4 O/U.
Florida State is in its 50th bowl game, going 29-17-3 in the previous 49. Last year’s win over Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl – now the Pop Tarts Bowl, adding to a long list of sponsors – was the first bowl trip for the Seminoles since a 2019 Sun Bowl loss to Arizona State.
This matchup is the third Orange Bowl appearance for Florida State. A touchdown in the final minute of the 2016 contest gave the Seminoles a 33-32 win over Michigan as touchdown underdogs, and they trounced Northern Illinois, 31-14, in 2013 as 2-TD chalk.
The Pick
This time, the Seminoles are the 2-TD underdogs, and my crystal ball says it won’t quite be enough no matter how much I’d like to see the CFP committee take some more heat. Georgia breaks open a tight game in the third quarter to cover the spread.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia -14 (-104) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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