NCAAF Pick: North Carolina Over 8 Wins -120 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The North Carolina Tar Heels won nine games last year, despite losing their last four. Can the Tar Heels finish the second half stronger this season?
Key Facts
- North Carolina won nine games in last year’s regular season.
- Drake Maye is projected to be a Heisman finalist for the Tar Heels at quarterback this season.
- North Carolina added multiple playmakers from the transfer portal this season.
Can North Carolina Win The ACC?
The North Carolina Tar Heels went 9-5 overall and 6-2 in the ACC last season under Mack Brown.
Brown is 30-22 as head coach of the Tar Heels. But he’s got 274 wins as a head coach in college football. He’s one of the best to do it.
However, his Tar Heels fell flat on their faces towards the end of the year. North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech and North Carolina State at home and then got obliterated by Clemson in the ACC Championship game, 39-10.
Can the Tar Heels put together an entire season in 2023? Let’s preview the Tar Heels.
The Offense
Drake Maye Is Elite
North Carolina’s Drake Maye is a Heisman candidate this season. He’s also a potential first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
Having a guy like him is helpful to any team trying to win a Championship. He threw for 4,321 yards and added 698 more yards on the ground.
He’ll play under the new offensive coordinator, Chip Lindsey, but Lindsey was the quarterback’s coach last year. It’ll be the same system, and he’ll have the same familiarity.
Maye no longer has Joshua Downs. He’s playing with the Colts now. He’ll also be without Antoine Green. However, the rest of the receiving corps, including Bryson Nesbit, is still there.
North Carolina also added Devontez Walker from Kent State, who should be an impact player immediately in this offense after adding 931 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. Another impact player is Nate McCollum, who comes from Georgia Tech.
The Defense
Can The Defense Improve?
North Carolina’s offense will be legitimate this year. They’ll do their job. But can the defense? The Tar Heels finished last in the ACC in total and scoring defense and allowed 437 yards with 31 points per game last season.
North Carolina rarely rushed the passer, which hurt the secondary from performing at a high level.
The defense added Storm Duck from Louisville and Tony Grimes from Texas A&M. They’ve also added Alijah Huzzie from East Tennessee State and Armani Chatman from Virginia Tech.
The defense had issues last year, but North Carolina at least tried to patch it all up in the transfer portal.
There’s experience on this team. But there’s not a lot of production, especially at the Power 5 level. That will be the test for North Carolina. But even if the defense is below average, as long as North Carolina isn’t dead last in the conference, they’ll have another quality season.
Will North Carolina’s Defense Hold Up?
The oddsmakers have North Carolina at eight wins this season, with the Over at -120 betting odds.
The Tar Heels will have to face South Carolina in the season’s first game. That’s going to be difficult. I think South Carolina is more well-balanced compared to North Carolina.
However, the Tar Heels should beat Appalachian State in Week 2 and likely have enough offense to get by Minnesota at home in Week 3.
At 2-1, North Carolina should escape Pittsburgh in Week 4 and beat Syracuse in Week 6. They’ll also face Miami (FL) and Virginia at home in their next two games (Week 7 and Week 8). At that point, I’d have the Tar Heels at 6-1 on the season.
While North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech at home last year, I think the Tar Heels look much better on paper than Georgia Tech (Week 9), and they’ll also beat Campbell at home in their Week 10 game.
They’d be 8-1 and need a win over Duke, Clemson, or North Carolina State to get the Over.
I don’t think the Tar Heels will beat Clemson, but one win against Duke or North Carolina State is possible.
Let’s ride the Over for North Carolina. I’m taking the Over for my betting picks, even with the Tar Heels taking a loss to South Carolina to begin the regular season.
NCAAF Pick: North Carolina Over 8 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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