Top NFL Pick: Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL’s Wild Card round was only supposed to have a single Monday night game in Tampa, but a shakeup in the schedule led to the Steelers-Bills game getting moved to Monday afternoon. We are taking another shot at a prop pick for that game given the better weather update, and we are still looking at the injured quarterback bowl between the Eagles and Buccaneers.
We checked out the top-rated offshore sportsbooks to find our favorite player props for Monday’s Wild Card action. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills)
Now that the weather should not be a whiteout blizzard for this game, look for the Bills to put the ball in the air. The Steelers are not going to have T.J. Watt to apply pressure on Josh Allen and disrupt the passing game. The Bills are not going to have Gabe Davis, who had 2 long touchdowns against Pittsburgh last year in the 38-3 win where Allen passed for a career-high 424 yards.
Don’t expect Allen to throw for 400 yards this week, but he should have a more normal game for his standards, and he has passed for at least 200 yards in all 8 playoff games in his career.
Stefon Diggs has to be his main receiver as has usually been the case over the years. Diggs has played Pittsburgh every year since 2020 and he’s had 10, 9, and 8 receptions in those games the last 3 seasons. Even if he keeps this pattern going and catches 7 balls, that would be fine to hit his over.
But Diggs caught over 5.5 balls in 9 straight games to start this season before a sudden shift in his production. Since Week 10, Diggs has only averaged 4.6 catches and 43.6 yards per game. The Buffalo passing game has become more erratic under new coordinator Joe Brady, but Diggs was at his best again in Week 18 in Miami with the AFC East on the line. He caught 7 balls for 87 yards in that one.
The Pick
But with the targets around Allen dwindling, Diggs should be ready to step up against a Pittsburgh secondary that tends to struggle with No. 1 receivers. With better weather now expected, we can trust Diggs to load up on catches in this matchup again.
NFL Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 Receptions (+105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles)
The big news for Philadelphia is that No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown is out with a knee injury. This is huge news for a Philadelphia offense that has not developed a strong No. 3 receiver, and they lose the 86.8 receiving yards per game that Brown averaged this year.
What might the Eagles look like without Brown? That’s hard to answer since he played in every game since joining the team in 2022. If we go back to 2021 when Jalen Hurts didn’t have Brown, he only averaged 209.6 passing yards per game that season, though he was a younger and less polished passer at the time.
But the Eagles are still going to have to throw to keep pace in this game, and tight end Dallas Goedert should be one of the best options for Hurts to throw to in replacing Brown’s production. We said the Eagles haven’t developed a WR3, but part of the reason for that is Goedert is effectively the No. 3 target in the passing game.
This hasn’t been a banner year for Goedert, as his 42.3 receiving yards per game is his lowest average since 2019, the year before Hurts was drafted. But he also may be the healthiest option Hurts has left.
The Pick
Goedert had a decent game earlier this season in Tampa with 7 targets, 5 catches, and 41 yards. When you consider that Brown had 131 yards that night, the Eagles have a lot of production to replace. Goedert should be able to get over 47.5 yards for your NFL picks this week.
NFL Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
This has been a rough year for Hurts and throwing interceptions as he had 15 picks, more than double his season total in 2022 (7) when he was the MVP runner-up to Patrick Mahomes. Hurts has been intercepted in 11-of-17 games this year, including an active 4-game streak, so it is a little surprising how even the betting odds are for him to do it this week.
Hurts has been intercepted in 6-of-9 road starts this year, including Week 3 in Tampa, when he threw 2 interceptions despite the easy 25-11 win. Hurts also threw 2 interceptions in Tampa Bay in a 2021 wild card start, and he has 5 interceptions in 3 games against Todd Bowles’ Tampa defense since 2021.
The Pick
Let’s put all the context together on this one. Hurts is struggling right now, he’s missing his best receiver in this matchup, he has a poor history against this defense, and he injured his finger last week. It would be surprising if he got through this game without throwing at least 1 interception.
NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-115) at Bovada
Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Despite going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans had one of the best seasons of his career this year for Tampa. He had 13 touchdowns, which led the NFL, and he had his most catches (79) and receiving yards (1,255) since the 2018 season. Not bad for a 30-year-old receiver.
Evans can get the ball in a variety of ways and he’s not just a deep-ball catcher anymore. Evans also produces more at home this year as he’s gone over 4.5 receptions in 6-of-8 home games compared to doing so in just 3-of-9 road games.
Evans has also caught a touchdown in all 9 games this year where he made at least 5 catches, so that is another prop to keep in mind for him this week as he takes on a struggling Philadelphia secondary.
The Pick
In Week 3, Evans had 5 catches for 60 yards and Tampa’s only touchdown in that rough performance. But he at least delivered some numbers by the end of the game, and most game scripts for this one favor Evans having a good day, either by dominating as a lead receiver against a bad defense or trying to catch up to the Eagles from behind.
NFL Pick: Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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