NFL Pick: Panthers ML (+135) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Carolina Panthers (0-6) are still looking for their first win, but in case you forgot, they had a higher preseason win total (7.5) than the Houston Texans (6.5) did going into the NFL’s 2023 season.
But Houston is 3-3 under rookie coach DeMeco Ryans, and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. That’s a tough pill to swallow for Bryce Young, who went No. 1 ahead of Stroud, but that should also provide some extra motivation for him and the Panthers at home this week where they are a 3-point underdog at the top-rated sportsbooks.
In a week where there are not many intriguing upset candidates, we have multiple reasons why Carolina is the right choice for your NFL Week 8 upset pick.
Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Slow Your Roll on C.J. Stroud’s Rookie Season
First, let’s get the obvious out of the way. C.J. Stroud has been significantly more impressive through 6 games than Bryce Young has for Carolina.
But let’s not blow it out of proportion. First, Stroud isn’t even having the best rookie quarterback season by a Houston quarterback in the last decade. That belongs to Deshaun Watson in 2017.
Stroud has completed 59.6% of his passes, which ranks next to last in the NFL despite the fact he is running a version of the Kyle Shanahan system that has made the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy look so successful and statistically efficient. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was on Shanahan’s coaching staff in San Francisco and has brought those concepts to Houston to some success so far.
Speaking of success, Stroud ranks 17th in passing success rate (44.7%), which is a stat that measures the efficiency of a quarterback at gaining yards based on the down and distance to stay ahead of the chains. Ranking 17th is average. Young is 25th at 40.4% in a worse offense.
Early Comparison of Young vs. Stroud
By QBR, Young (32.1) is dead last and Stroud (57.0) is 16th. Again, Stroud has definitely outplayed Young, but that doesn’t mean he will always be the better quarterback from this draft class. It is way too early for statements like this.
Also, a big part of Stroud’s success and statistical hype is that he set the record for most pass attempts without an interception to start a career. He only threw his first interception against New Orleans, and the Saints fumbled it right back to Houston on the play.
But no-interception streaks can be flukey, and it is not an area that you want to be the centerpiece of your quarterback’s success story. Houston fans would take some more picks if it meant the Texans scored more points in some of these games by being more aggressive.
Stroud has done a good job, but he also runs a superior system to Young, and has better talent around him with Nico Collins breaking out at wide receiver this year, and we are overlooking that Houston is only 17th in first downs and 30th in rushing yards per carry. It is not a great offense yet.
Defensively, these teams have some things in common:
- The Panthers allow 5.7 yards per play, which isn’t much worse than Houston’s 5.4 yards per play allowed.
- The Panthers have allowed 123 first downs while the Texans have allowed 121.
- Carolina’s pass defense allows 6.5 NY/A while Houston’s pass defense allows 6.6 NY/A.
- Both defenses allow an average pass target of 7.4 yards past the line of scrimmage.
- Carolina (21.6%) ranks 18th in pass pressure rate while Houston (20.9%) is 22nd according to Pro Football Reference.
- The Texans (60) and Panthers (56) have the most missed tackles on defense despite both having a bye week already (source: Pro Football Reference).
- Carolina has 14 sacks on defense while Houston (9) is the only team stuck in single digits.
Slight Edge on Defense to Carolina?
These numbers are all fairly close, if not giving Carolina an edge. But when you consider the competition faced, it makes Carolina look a little better defensively.
The Texans started the season playing some better offensive teams and quarterbacks like the Ravens, Colts, and Jaguars. But in the last 3 games, Houston has faced Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New Orleans – 3 struggling offenses and quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Carolina started the season playing the Falcons and Saints, but it has also played the Seahawks in Seattle, the Lions in Detroit, and the Dolphins in Miami. The Lions and Dolphins are among the highest-scoring teams and both ranked in the top 4 in yards, and they burned the Panthers for 42 points each.
Houston is not that explosive or dominant on offense, and the Texans rank 27th in the red zone (touchdowns on 38.1% of attempts). The Panthers will not be giving up 42 again this week. Carolina also ranks No. 4 on 3rd down (34.3%), so if they can survive the big plays on early downs against Houston, they should have some success in this matchup to keep the game close.
Also, turnovers are always good for regression. The Panthers have yet to recover a lost fumble this season, so they are due there. They only have 5 takeaways total, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Texans have a league-low 3 giveaways. But as we saw with the 49ers doubling their giveaway count from 3 to 6 in Minnesota last week, turnovers often regress to the mean.
Carolina’s Offense
The Panthers have been running a strange offense under coach Frank Reich. They lead the league in pass attempts per game, rank No. 8 in first downs, rank 14th on 3rd down, and 10th in the red zone. Yet they are only 23rd in points and 24th in yards.
The problem is the receivers are not stepping up outside of Adam Thielen, who looks like he is 23 instead of 33. The veteran is killing it and already has 509 yards as he catches 83.1% of his targets. But they need another receiver to step up.
Miles Sanders has also been a huge disappointment coming over from Philadelphia at running back. He is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has a rushing success rate of 34.4%. The Panthers got to use Chuba Hubbard more in the last game with Sanders out, and he is averaging 4.5 yards per carry with a success rate of 64.8% this season. The Panthers need to rely on Hubbard more than Sanders.
Home Field > Bye Week
Both teams had a bye week, so any advantage gained there should just about be squashed. However, the veteran coach could have a leg up on the competition here since he has been through this before several times.
When Reich coached the Colts, he was 4-0 after a bye week, including a couple of home wins in division games. Reich has some familiarity with Houston from the AFC South.
But being the home team should matter a bit more to Carolina than any bye week. The Panthers have looked better at home, only losing 20-17 to the Saints and staying close to Minnesota in a 21-13 final where the Panthers held the ball for over 38 minutes but were too inefficient to score more.
This Carolina team is not going winless. Their day will come, and based on the schedule before the season, this stretch against Houston, Indy, and Chicago was always going to be its best shot for a winning streak.
The Pick
In a season with so much mediocrity disguised as parity, how long can we go with a winless team? Not when P.J. Walker is beating the 49ers and walking away victorious in a 39-38 game with Gardner Minshew and the Colts, or when Arizona beat Dallas as a 12.5-point favorite. Not when the Bills are blowing a 29-25 game to Mac Jones and the worst Patriots team in over 20 years.
Carolina is not a good team, but Houston does not look like a playoff team either. Take the Panthers to pull off the upset and get that first win for Frank Reich. Maybe they’ll even snap their streak of 56 straight losses when trailing in the 4th quarter, a streak that goes back to 2018.
NFL Pick: Panthers ML (+135) at Bovada
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