NFL Pick: Falcons +3 (-120 buying the hook) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Swinger went 1-1 against the number last week but took a brutal loss when the Patriots melted in the waning moments of the game. This week SJ has three NFL picks and is determined to right this ship before it’s too late. Let’s see what he has in store for us this week.
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 6-12 ATS (-25.75 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 6 Recap
There are bad beats and then there are beats so bad they should be criminal. I always say the only one who wants to hear a bad beat story is the one telling it; thus, I will adhere to my age-old maxim and simply leave you with Mac Jones getting sacked in the end zone – triggering an agonizing safety – on the last real play of the game which meant our 4-unit Patriots (+3) wager went from a cover to a money-burner in the blink of an eye. Final score: Raiders 21 – Patriots 17. I hate it.
The good news is (smiles everyone!) we had the Jets +7 for 2 units and they not only covered but upset the Eagles in the process. Ironically, our first moneyline bet of the year was on the Patriots and not on the Jets. Do you know why?
Because I sit on a throne of lies, and everything I ever thought I knew about handicapping professional football has been a delusion, a false narrative, or as Dickens put it, “…an undigested bit of beef, a blot of mustard, a crumb of cheese, a fragment of underdone potato.”
I stand before you as a fragment of underdone potato. And with that, let’s move on to Week 7.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium
Key Stats
- Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC South opponents.
- Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.
- Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
Defensive Showdown
Before we begin, apropos of absolutely nothing regarding the handicapping of this matchup, both teams lost by identical 20-6 scores to the Lions this year. Weird, right?
The Falcons lost, 24-16, last week to the Commanders while the Bucs bowed, 20-6, to the Lions. But the Falcons loss looks worse because no one expected the Bucs to beat the Lions. And that’s just fine by me because the Falcons are a better club than their 3-3 record suggests.
In this matchup, I see Atlanta’s No. 10 scoring defense shutting down the Bucs’ No. 21 ranked offense early and often. You see, the Bucs don’t do much when they have the ball despite having one of the best wide receivers in the game, Mike Evans, and to a lesser degree, Chris Godwin.
Baker Mayfield has serious targets but his offensive line doesn’t give him much time to scan the field. The Bucs rank 17th in passing, averaging 212.6 yards per game while their rushing “attack” is more of a mild affront, averaging 78.8 yards per game good for 29th in the league.
Falcons’ Edge Over Bucs
The Falcons are right there with the Bucs in terms of passing (ranked 18th) but they separate themselves with a very good rushing unit featuring rookie Bijan Robinson, who has basically split carries with the legendary Tyler Allgeier, owner of a 3.2 yards per carry average versus Robinson’s 5.1 YPC.
Why does the No. 8 overall pick in the draft split carries with a nobody? Only head coach Arthur Smith knows.
Nevertheless, I don’t see much separating these teams as they are both equipped with decent defenses while Atlanta can ground-and-pound all afternoon. I view the Falcons as the superior team in this matchup with only the hostile venue working against them.
The Pick
Lastly, the Falcons defeated the Bucs, 30-17, in January and covered both times last season. Grab the three points with Atlanta at the top sportsbooks and make sure to buy the hook if you must.
NFL Pick: Falcons +3 (-120 buying the hook) at Bovada – For 3 units
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field
Key Stats
- Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Chicago.
- Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Las Vegas is ranked 31st of 32 teams in rushing.
Raiders Offense Struggles Continue
I’m not fading the Raiders because I bet against them last week and they subsequently sucked my soul from my body and my money from my wallet. Of course, the only reason they covered is because New England’s Mac Jones has zero respect for my gambling dollars and took a sack in the end zone, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
No, I just don’t think they are a good team and will likely be without Jimmy Garoppolo which means the quintessential journeyman backup, Brian Hoyer, will do the honors. It’s a lackluster offense that now has a second-string quarterback pulling the trigger. Let’s also consider that the Raiders had yet to score 20 points all season and it took a safety in the waning moments of last week’s game for it to occur.
Bears’ Playoff Hopes Dim
Look, the Bears won’t even sniff the playoffs this year so I know what I’m getting, but even they’ve scored 20 or more three times this season. And yes, they too will be without their starting quarterback on Sunday as the immortal Tyson Bagent will be under center.
Who’s Tyson Bagent, you ask? Well, let’s just say he’s the biggest thing to come out of D-2 Shepherd University since John J. Cornwell, the 15th governor of West Virginia way back in 1917. So yeah, Bagent won the Harlon Hill Award (MVP of D-2 football) and was a big fish in a small pond.
But now Bagent is a guppy in Lake Michigan and if nothing more than handing off to his running backs is expected of him then I am all in on that game plan because that’s how the Bears will not only cover but win this one outright. Chicago averages 136 rushing yards per game (7th) and they will devour a porous Raiders run-stop unit that ranks 23rd in the league.
The Pick
I believe this will be a low-scoring affair because neither team will trust their quarterbacks to take a big role in this one and will keep it on the ground while the clock churns and burns.
So, with that, let’s go low as well.
NFL Pick: Under 37 ½ (-102) at Bovada – For 2 units
NFL Pick: Bears +3 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) – For 3 units
The Woodman’s Corner (2-4 ATS)
In the “misery loves company” department I couldn’t be happier to have a co-pilot through this stormy season. The Woodman is having a tough time of it and watched in horror as his Seahawks failed to muster enough offense to cover the number on the NFL odds board against the Queen City Cats via a 17-13 loss in Cincinnati.
Well, the man tells me that fish is on Sunday’s menu and that the dynamic Tua-to-Tyreek combo will spellbind the Eagles secondary. And you know what? I believe him. Bet the Farm on the Dolphins, so sayeth the Woodman!
Woodman’s Pick: Dolphins +2½ (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
