NFL Pick: Patriots +3 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Week 5 saw Swinger’s first 5-unit maximum play of the season cash, as the Lions devoured the Panthers last week, and Swinger went 2-1 ATS for the day. Let’s find out if that’s foreshadowing for better things to come and see what SJ has in store for us this week.
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 5-11 ATS (-22.75 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 5 Recap
My 5-unit maximum plays are few and far between but thank the good lord in heaven above that my first one of the season clicked like a loaded .45. The Detroit Lions were laying 9 to 9 ½ depending on where you shop but it didn’t matter because the Motor City Cats laid waste to the Panthers, 42-24, and that, my friends, was that.
We also had another winner when the Steelers +4 ½ not only covered the number on the NFL odds board but defeated the Ravens outright, 17-10, which brought us three units to the good.
However, we found out early on Sunday afternoon that it would not be all lollipops and sunshine as the Patriots were throttled by the Saints. That error in judgment cost us three units but, wonder of all wonders, we made money for the day, exactly 4.74 units which we needed like oxygen.
Let’s hope this is a sign of things to come and this week brings us more relief from our early season hole. We only have two selections this week at the best sportsbooks, as I’m not particularly fond of the offerings, but we added a moneyline wager as well. Ready, set…. let’s go!
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
Key Stats
- Las Vegas is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.
- Las Vegas is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played in Week 6.
- Las Vegas is 7-13 SU in their last 20 games played in October.
Patriots’ Value After Struggles
If there is one team on which I was least likely to wager this week, it would make sense it would be the New England Patriots after their heinous performance against the Saints last week. In case you missed, it, it was a 34-0 debacle and the worst defeat for the Patriots during the Bill Belichick era.
However, because of that performance, and in combination with the Raiders’ 17-13 victory over the Packers on Monday night, we are getting ridiculous value on the Pats. Las Vegas has only two wins this year – yes, one more than New England ya smart ass – with the first, a 17-16 win over the woeful Broncos, while the second was a four-point win over the careless Packers on Monday night.
Now they are suddenly three-point favorites but the problem is Vegas is dead last in rushing with 71.4 yards per game and 29th in scoring, averaging 15.8 points per contest. I don’t know about you but I am convinced that last week’s performance against the Saints will be the Patriots’ worst of the season.
The Pick
Bill Belichick has the book on Jimmy Garoppolo, having coached him for his first few years in the league. He knows what he does well and what he doesn’t. The Pats won’t have to worry much about the run as the Raiders’ run-blocking unit is atrocious. Let’s grab the points and watch the Pats win this one outright!
NFL Pick: Patriots +151 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review) – For 1 unit
NFL Pick: Patriots +3 (+102) at Heritage Sports – For 4 units
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Key Stats
- The New York Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.
- New York’s Breece Hall ran for 177 yards on an 8-yards-per-carry average last week against the Broncos.
- Philadelphia is ranked 25th against the pass, allowing 247.6 yards per game.
Jets Face Eagles’ Challenge
The Jets’ offense got back on track last week with a 31-21 win over the Broncos in hostile territory. New York stampeded Denver with a total of 234 rushing yards but a repeat of that performance is highly unlikely as the Eagles have the best run-stop unit in the league, surrendering only 61.2 yards per game.
However, as good as the Eagles’ offense has looked, we must consider the caliber of the defenses they have faced. The Jets will be Philadelphia’s sternest test to date and although we have concerns about Zach Wilson maintaining his composure under the fire of the Philly pass rush, I believe seven points is too much to give a home team with an upper echelon defense.
The Pick
Oh, and before I forget. This is setting up as a trap game for the Eagles as they are coming off a road win against the Rams with an upcoming showdown against the Dolphins in Week 7 and could very well be overlooking the Jets.
NFL Pick: Jets +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports – For 2 units
The Woodman’s Corner (2-3 ATS)
Imagine my surprise when the Woodman deviated from his tried-and-true handicapping philosophy by choosing a rather large favorite last week. The Buffalo Bills looked like the selection of a chalk-eater and every Joe Q. Public who laid the lumber and teased the boys from Buffalo got their keisters kicked!
So, big deal, he walked on the square side for a week but now he’s back to betting on an underdog this week. The man from parts unknown has summoned the spirits during an ayahuasca-fueled incantation conjured by a Haitian witch doctor who spoke of his visions of the future.
I’m not sure what the good doctor saw but it certainly had nothing to do with Sunday’s games. Nevertheless, the Woodman says, “Bet the farm on the Seahawks!”
Woodman’s Pick: Seahawks +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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