NFL Pick: Vikings +5.5 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
The NFL’s Week 5 schedule has a monster Sunday night game between the Cowboys and 49ers, but we are looking at predictions for key afternoon games in Saints-Patriots, Bengals-Cardinals, and Chiefs-Vikings.
With some help from the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review, we determined our top spreads or totals for your Week 5 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Scoring Hard to Come by for Saints, Patriots
A good quarter of the league is struggling to score right now, but the Patriots (13.8 points per game) and Saints (15.5) are among the worst-scoring offenses after Week 4. Now they meet in what should be another struggle against each other.
The Saints are a 1.5-point road underdog with a total of 39.5 points.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Good Luck with the Dink and Dunk, Derek Carr
Derek Carr was a surprise start in Week 4 after he left the previous game with a shoulder injury that turned out to be an AC sprain. This is something quarterbacks can play through, but maybe Carr could have used a week off.
In a bad loss to the Buccaneers, Carr ended up completing 23 passes for only 127 yards, the fewest yards in NFL history for a game with exactly 23 completions. The reason this happened is because Carr constantly checked down to running back Alvin Kamara, who had 13 catches for just 33 yards, which is also a record for ineptitude.
The Saints are averaging just 1 offensive touchdown per game this season, and no offense has been worse in the red zone at scoring touchdowns (4 for 12).
Another issue for Carr has been sacks. His sack rate is 9.5% this season, which is almost double his rate with the Raiders (5.1%). A low yards per completion average mixed with a high sack rate and high depth of target is a very odd mixture of stats for a quarterback, but that is where Carr is at in 2023. It would not be hard for Bill Belichick to come up with a scheme to attack this offense.
Mac Jones on a Short Leash?
At one point last season, Mac Jones was benched for poor play and replaced by Bailey Zappe, which did not stick in New England. It happened again in Week 4 in a brutal 38-3 loss in Dallas where Jones turned the ball over multiple times for touchdown returns.
But again, it looks like Jones will get the start. The Saints had their 11-game streak of not allowing 21 points broken last week against the Buccaneers, but this is still a proud defense that faced Jones in 2021 when he was a rookie and intercepted him 3 times, including once for a touchdown.
Jones has not shown improvement and the Patriots are the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league. They have not had more than 17 points since Week 1 against the Eagles. Even the running game is only 28th in yards per carry.
The Pick
A couple of very bad offenses. A couple of very good defenses. This should be another defensive slugfest, and hopefully the total is not impacted by numerous return touchdowns, because otherwise, these offenses are not scoring 20 points on their own merit.
When we see a computer score that is a full touchdown below the total, we cannot help but take the under to hit.
Score Prediction: Saints 17 – Patriots 15
NFL Pick: Under 39.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Cardinals Can Add to Cincinnati’s Misery
Going into the season, the Arizona Cardinals were the favorite pick to land the No. 1 pick in the draft, and the Cincinnati Bengals were a top 3 Super Bowl favorite in the AFC. My how times have changed. The Cardinals have been very competitive despite the 1-3 record, and they pulled off the upset of the year against Dallas. The Bengals are also 1-3 and have been a terrible disappointment to this point.
The Bengals are still a 3-point road favorite despite their struggles. We think there is good value in Arizona here.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 8, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
The Broken Cincinnati Offense
The Bengals (944) are the only offense that has yet to crack 1,000 yards of offense this season. Only the Giants have scored fewer points. No offense has a lower yards-per-play average than Cincinnati (4.0).
This offense stinks, and at some point, it has to be about more than Joe Burrow’s calf injury that he suffered in July. Maybe he should have rested the first month of the season while the team signed a veteran to guide them through those games. Maybe he should have taken a seat after the 0-2 start.
But in choosing to keep playing, Burrow has to either play better or step aside until he can stop hurting the offense, which incredibly has an argument for the worst in the league when the Steelers and Giants are still out there doing their thing this year.
But with Tee Higgins suffering a rib injury, this offense that scored 3 points could have its hands full in Arizona, which has already notched a win over the Cowboys and held 4th-quarter leads against Washington and the Giants before losing those games.
Even when the Cardinals lost 35-16 to the 49ers on Sunday, they were only down 21-16 at one point in the 3rd quarter. Arizona has 12 sacks despite being one of the least blitz-happy defenses in the league. If Burrow cannot move well and is down a major receiver, then the Cardinals might have the right approach to dominating this offense that cannot produce any big plays. The Bengals failed to gain more than 17 yards on any play against the Titans in last week’s 27-3 loss.
Joshua Dobbs Is Outplaying Joe Burrow
Chalk it up to injury if you want, but Joshua Dobbs is having a much better 4-game start to 2023 than Burrow, and this is despite playing a couple of elite defenses (Cowboys and 49ers) the last 2 weeks. Burrow ranks No. 29 in QBR (33.6).
Shockingly, Dobbs (67.6) ranks No. 8 in QBR, which is a stat that loves rushing from the position, which Dobbs is very effective at doing. But that mobility can be key in this matchup as the Cardinals have a better running game and their quarterback right now is better at avoiding pressure.
The Cardinals have not turned the ball over in any of the last 3 games, and they rank 10th on 3rd down and 13th in the red zone. They scored 28 points in both home games. These are way better numbers than anyone imagined when the Cardinals signed Dobbs to start in late August.
The Pick
The Cardinals actually look like a functional offense while the Bengals look like a broken one that should be missing Higgins this week. The Cardinals are also overachieving on defense and stand a fair shot at slowing down Cincinnati to keep this more than winnable at home.
The computer prediction still likes the Bengals to win by the skin of their teeth, but the best bet here is to take Arizona with the points. It would be shocking to see Arizona drop the Bengals to 1-4, but based on the way the teams have played so far, it might be the most logical outcome.
Score Prediction: Bengals 22 – Cardinals 20
NFL Pick: Cardinals +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Are the Chiefs Okay?
Kansas City survived a scare in New York after blowing a 17-0 lead to Zach Wilson and the Jets last Sunday night. The Vikings finally got their first win of the season after shutting out Carolina in the 4th quarter in a 21-13 win.
The Chiefs are a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 52 points.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 8, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium
Chiefs Face Pass-Happy Vikings
The NFL sure can be a strange league. The Chiefs allowed 11.0 points per game on defense to the Lions, Jaguars, and Bears, but they allowed Zach Wilson to put up 18 points and play one of the best games of his career last week. They were fortunate he coughed up a fumble and the offense ran the clock out with a long drive.
Now the Kansas City defense gets a different test on the road as the Vikings have the quarterback (Kirk Cousins) with the most touchdown passes (11) in the league, and the team is 32nd in rushing attempts.
Cousins also has a dominant wide receiver on his side with Justin Jefferson, who leads the league with 543 receiving yards and has caught touchdowns in back-to-back games.
The huge problem for Minnesota has been a league-worst 11 giveaways with multiple turnovers in every game this season. The Vikings have lost a league-high 7 fumbles, which at least feels fluky and correctable going forward.
While the Chiefs have a takeaway in every game, only the Chicago game saw them collect multiple turnovers. If the Vikings can protect the ball well at home, they may be the first team to crack 20 offensive points (and then some) on this Kansas City defense this season. Cousins to Jefferson is easily the best quarterback and wide receiver duo they will have seen yet.
Kansas City’s Wide Receivers
The Chiefs are going to be just fine against most teams in the NFL, but you cannot win a Super Bowl without eventually having to beat a team that can both score and defend. That is when the Chiefs could get exposed for not having a good receiving room this season.
Travis Kelce has to do so much of the heavy lifting for this offense, and we saw what things were like in Week 1 against Detroit when he was out. If Kelce, who turns 34 this month, cannot be dominant, then the Chiefs are throwing the ball to a lot of unreliable players.
Against the Jets, Patrick Mahomes technically had one of the worst passing games of his career with only 208 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and a 63.6 passer rating. Mahomes was just 7-of-12 for 65 yards on throws to wide receivers in that game.
This will be an interesting matchup as the Vikings allow the most catches (74) and 2nd-most receiving yards (882) to wide receivers this season. They have only allowed 82 yards on 17 catches to tight ends, which is the 2nd-lowest total in the league this year. Of course, Kelce is in his own class, but the Jets did a solid job of limiting him to 60 yards.
The Pick
Last week’s close win over the Jets was not a fluke. In case you forgot, the Chiefs won 7 games by 1-to-3 points last year on their way to a 17-3 record and Super Bowl championship.
The Chiefs have scored no more than 23 points in 3-of-4 games this season, they are only ranked 17th at scoring touchdowns in the red zone (56.3%), and they have turned it over multiple times in the last 3 games just like Minnesota has.
Leave it to the Vikings to squander any close game this year, but they should be able to move the ball and score on the Chiefs. This could be a shootout, and we think the computer score is one of the most accurate in Week 5 as it is easy to see Mahomes leading a late go-ahead touchdown drive to get a 28-24 win that does not cover the spread again.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 28 – Vikings 24
NFL Pick: Vikings +5.5 (-110) at BetAnySports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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