NFL Week 4 Swinger’s Best Bets: Sunday Night Belongs to the Chiefs 

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NFL Pick: Chiefs -9½ (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review) – For 3 units 

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Swinger is bloodied but unbowed after last week’s massacre and is ready to get back in the ring to take another swing. Let’s see what the man has in store for Week 4.  

  • Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
  • Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 2-8 ATS (-22.67 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)  

Week 3 Recap 

I would like to direct your attention to last week’s headline, one that I created by the way, that perfectly illustrates just how grotesquely inaccurate I was last week. Broncos Ready to Go Fishing – yup, that was me, all me, and if you haven’t been keeping up, I would like to point out that it was a 4 unit play of mine against the Dolphins.

Yes, the very same Dolphins that scored 70 motha f***in’ points last week and made the Broncos’ defense look – well – rather offensive. 

Oh, but the fun didn’t end there as the bloodbath was well underway when I also lit four units on fire by betting the Jags against the not-so-woeful Texans and another three units on the Titans who got trashed by the Browns. As if this glass-chewing afternoon wasn’t bad enough, I decided to serve you up a shot of vinegar to wash it all down with Over in the Chargers/Vikings game for 2 units. 

I truly can’t remember Swinger’s Picks being so loaded with disastrous selections but it’s time to stop dwelling on the past and begin atoning for my sins on Sunday. Amen. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets 

Sunday, October 01, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium 

Key Stats 

  • The Chiefs have won and covered 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Jets. 
  • The Chiefs held the Bears to 89 passing yards last week. 
  • The Jets are ranked dead last in scoring, averaging only 14 points per game. 

This Jets’ offense is atrocious. And although Zach Wilson has been part of the problem, I would point my accusing finger in the direction of his offensive linemen before anyone else – offensive being the operative word. The Jets average two touchdowns per game, that’s it, the lowest-scoring offense in the league.  

Conversely, the Chiefs’ defense is ranked 4th in points allowed, surrendering just 13.3 points per game. As for KC’s offense, all we need to know is Patrick Mahomes is pulling the trigger and a fellow future first-ballot Hall of Famer is catching passes from him in Travis Kelce.  

This bet reeks of Joe Q. Public and I’m honestly skeptical because it’s such a chalky pick but I could see the Chiefs torching this big ball of Gang Green and winning by 30 points. I might be as square as a microwave, but I’m taking the road favorite with the NFL odds giving me under 10 points, and the public doesn’t always lose. 

NFL Pick: Chiefs -9½ (-108) at Bookmaker – For 3 units 

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys 

Sunday, October 01, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium 

Key Stats 

  • The Cowboys are tied for 18th in passing yards averaging 207.3 yards per game. 
  • The Cowboys allowed 222 rushing yards in their loss to the Cardinals last week. 
  • The Patriots defense held the Jets to just 38 rushing yards last week. 

Ezekiel Elliott is returning to his roots when he suits up against the Dallas Cowboys. I expect Zeke to have a tremendous game against the Cowboys’ 25th-ranked rushing defense, allowing 131.3 yards per game.

If you watched the Patriots defeat the Jets last week, then you undoubtedly saw Elliot outshine Rhamondre Stevenson, producing a five-yard-per-carry average versus Stevenson’s sluggish 3.1 YPC average. 

The Cowboys got whooped last week by the Cardinals, 28-16, and I am getting that creeping sensation they are reverting to the same old Cowboys we’ve seen time and again. The Patriots have an excellent defense and their first-round pick, cornerback Christian Gonzalez, is like a concrete blanket when covering receivers.

He’s the real deal and I believe this one will be closer than the chalk-eaters believe. 

NFL Pick: Patriots +7 (-120) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review) – For 3 units 

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 

Sunday, October 01, 2023 – 09:30 AM EDT at Wembley Stadium 

Key Stats 

  • The Falcons are 3-6 ATS in the last 9 games. 
  • The Falcons are 29th in passing yards, averaging 155 yards per game. 
  • The Falcons are 23rd in scoring, averaging 18.3 points per game 

You better get up early on Sunday morning to watch this one as the teams will meet in Jolly Old England. And although the Jags looked lost last week in their setback to the Texans, we have to consider they came out flat after a tough game against the Chiefs. They also tortured themselves – and me – with sloppy play including a few drive-killing penalties. 

I made the Jags a 4 unit play last week and am coming back with them again this week. They were a prohibitive division preseason favorite but find themselves 1-2 after three games. Trevor Lawrence is an outstanding quarterback and he should be able to find the seams in this Atlanta pass defense.

The Falcons are much better against the run but they won’t stop a motivated Trevor Lawrence and this Jacksonville aerial attack. I am backing down the units for the foreseeable future as the number of units we lost last week was untenable and, quite frankly, reckless. I see a fairly easy cover with Jax in this one according to the NFL predictions

NFL Pick: Jaguars -3 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) – For 2 units 

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The Woodman’s Corner (2-1 ATS) 

Last week was so bad that even the Woodman suffered his first defeat of the season. The Bears tanked right along with my picks but the man from parts unknown has vowed to rebound with another live hound. 

Look to the desert he says, and there you will find your ticket to financial freedom as the Cardinals invade the Bay Area getting a two-touchdown head start from the best sportsbooks. Bet the farm and make bank with the Redbirds, so sayeth the Woodman! 

Woodman’s Pick: Cardinals +14 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.