Top NFL Pick: Joe Burrow Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
With the Eagles holding on for a 34-28 win over Minnesota to kick off the NFL’s Week 2 schedule, maybe we will see more offensive fireworks this weekend. There were 19 teams who failed to hit 200 net passing yards in Week 1, making it one of the worst opening weeks for offense in over a decade.
There should be some great games to target this week with Ravens-Bengals, Chiefs-Jaguars, and Raiders-Bills. We have selected a handful of our favorite player props for Week 2, which you can find at the best sportsbooks. Feel free to play singles or parlay your favorites.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
At what point can we start talking about Brock Purdy in historical terms? In the 9 games where he has thrown at least 20 passes, the 49ers are 9-0. That has never been done by any other quarterback in NFL history before to start his career.
Not only does the team win, but Purdy has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 8-of-9 games when he throws 20 passes. Only the Cowboys in the divisional round held him without a touchdown pass in a game he did not leave injured.
Purdy looked incredible in Week 1, posting the highest QBR of the week, and he did this despite facing immense pass pressure from T.J. Watt (3 sacks) and company. The 49ers were also next to last in YAC in Week 1, so he was making most of his yards through the air on pinpoint passes to Brandon Aiyuk, who would be a No. 1 wide receiver on several teams, but he is thought of as the No. 4 weapon in loaded San Francisco.
Purdy has never faced the Rams before, but this is one of the defenses that Kyle Shanahan prepared for best with Jimmy Garoppolo, who had 5 games with over 1.5 touchdown passes against the Rams, including the last meeting in October 2022.
The Pick
The Rams had a good win in Seattle in Week 1, but this is a different beast when you face the 49ers. The Rams are still basically Aaron Donald and 10 random defenders, so it looks like Purdy should be in position to have another game with multiple touchdowns and another win for his team.
At some point, we will acknowledge how unreal his consistent success has been this early in his career.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at Bovada
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Under 263.5 Passing Yards
In 2021, Joe Burrow looked to establish himself as Baltimore’s new threat after he torched them for over 400 yards in both matchups, setting a 2-game record for most passing yards in one season against a team. But informed fans knew the Ravens were not healthy on defense that year for John Harbaugh.
Flash forward to 2022, and while Burrow was 2-1 against the Ravens with a playoff win, he did not pass for more than 217 yards in any of those games against an improved defense. He also had poor yards per attempt numbers, and he never threw more than 1 touchdown in any of the games. The Ravens achieved this despite only sacking Burrow 8 times in the 3 games and with pressure rates that wouldn’t even crack Burrow’s 25 worst games.
To start the 2023 season, Burrow passed for a career-low 82 yards on 31 passes against Cleveland, one of the most ineffective passing games in NFL history. While we are used to blaming pressure from the offensive line for Cincinnati’s shortcomings, Burrow’s pressure rate was only 27.3%, his 13th-highest game in the regular season.
Burrow was largely off in Week 1, charted with a bad throw on 33.3% of his throws, the highest game of his career according to data at Pro Football Reference. Could this be the calf injury he suffered in July that cut his preseason preparation short? Is he healthy enough to be playing right now?
The Pick
All we know is Burrow was terrible last week, he was not impressive against Baltimore last year in 3 meetings, and he generally does not throw for a lot of yards in big games. Burrow has been held under 263.5 passing yards in 5-of-7 playoff games in his career.
This is a big game too in the AFC North, and the best bet is for Burrow to fall short of the 263.5 mark. Just getting to 200 yards would be a major improvement given what happened last week.
NFL Pick: Joe Burrow Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Stadium
Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs look to be getting Travis Kelce back for this big playoff rematch, but the Jaguars are bringing something new to the table with Calvin Ridley. His debut went great last week with 8 catches on 11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. Not bad for your first NFL game since 2021.
But this is exactly the kind of matchup the Jaguars needed to make this trade for. They were competitive with the Chiefs twice last year, but they needed more points than what they were getting to win those games.
Ridley gives this offense more credibility, and the Chiefs were a defense that struggled a lot with No. 1 wideouts going back to 2022. Even in the games against Jacksonville, they allowed Christian Kirk to have 105 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 10, and Zay Jones had 83 yards in the playoff loss.
In Week 1 against Detroit to start this season, the Chiefs again looked most vulnerable to wide receivers, allowing 71 yards to Amon-Ra St. Brown and 80 yards to Josh Reynolds. The Chiefs are getting their best pass rusher back in Chris Jones, which could mean more pressure on Trevor Lawrence, but the secondary is still at a mismatch with these wide receivers.
The Pick
We know this game has a high total (51.5) and expectations are for the Chiefs to be much better offensively after dropping the ball against the Lions without Kelce. Ridley has to be a stud in this matchup, and we trust he will have at least 69 yards for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-130) at Bovada
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
There were 3 rookie quarterbacks who started in Week 1, and Anthony Richardson of the Colts looked better than C.J. Stroud (Texans) and Bryce Young (Panthers). He will look to outscore Stroud this week as they meet for the first time in the AFC South.
Considered the rawest prospect of the top 3 quarterbacks in the draft, Richardson was more effective in Week 1, completing 24-of-37 passes for 223 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and 4 sacks that only lost 8 yards. He also rushed for 40 yards and a touchdown against a Jacksonville team hoping to win the division again.
All things considered, it was a solid debut on an offense that has little working for it right now. But if you caught the end of the game, Richardson was close to scoring his 2nd rushing touchdown before getting tripped up and leaving the game. He is fine and will be the starter this week. His nose for the end zone is a reason to take him to score another touchdown this week.
For one, the Colts lack other good options as Jonathan Taylor remains out. Deon Jackson was awful as a runner last week, losing 2 fumbles. Richardson might already be the team’s best option as a runner until (or if) Taylor returns.
Also, the Houston defense looked pretty soft up front last week against Baltimore, allowing rushing touchdowns of 4, 2, and 2 yards to the running backs.
The Pick
As we said, with Richardson being the best runner on the team, he should be able to find the end zone again in this game. Remember, his coach is Shane Steichen, who had Jalen Hurts score 18 touchdowns last year on the ground, a record (playoffs included) for quarterbacks. Let’s trust the rookie while his odds are still this good to score again.
NFL Pick: Anthony Richardson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+179) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
The Bills had a stunning, self-inflicted loss against the Jets on Monday night. Josh Allen’s 4 turnovers were killers to an offense that otherwise had some good moments against what figures to be an elite defense this season in New York.
Not expected to be an elite defense is Las Vegas. Do not let the 17-16 win in Denver fool you. Each team only had 6 possessions in that game, so that means the Raiders allowed Russell Wilson to drive for over 50 yards per drive, which would shatter NFL records for a single season.
The Bills are an 8.5-point favorite and expected to do much better at home this week after the tough loss. Allen will bounce back, and a player he should lean on is rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid in his home debut.
Kincaid played in 80% of the snaps in Week 1, which is an encouraging sign the team will use him frequently along with veteran Dawson Knox. Kincaid caught 4-of-4 targets for 26 yards against the Jets, and again, that is a better secondary and defense than what the Raiders have.
The Pick
Kincaid should be able to target the deep seams and could get a big chunk of his needed yards for his over-on-one play. Trust him to go over 29.5 yards and get the Bills back on track this week.
NFL Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-135) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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