NFL Pick: Chiefs-Jaguars Over 51 (-103) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Week 2 in the NFL features many intriguing games where a team can start 2-0 and drop its opponent to 0-2, including a huge game in Jacksonville between the Chiefs and Jaguars.
We are using the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review to pick out some of our favorite spreads and totals for Week 2, and which offshore sportsbooks you’ll want to bet them at.
Saints Take Defense to Carolina
The first test to find out if Derek Carr finally has a defense went well for the Saints in a 16-15 win over the Titans. The offense will be looking for more success against a rebuilding Carolina team that pushed the Falcons into the 4th quarter before losing 24-10 in the debut for quarterback Bryce Young and coach Frank Reich.
The Saints are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 40.5 points.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Monday, September 18, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Carr Enjoys Defense in Debut
When Derek Carr was with the Raiders, scoring 16 points usually meant a loss as he was 3-48 when the scoreboard was under 17. But in his first game with the Saints, he was able to overcome a red-zone interception, get away with a lost fumble for a touchdown that was negated by officials, and he only needed to find the end zone once to get the win.
His defense stepped up for a change. The Saints, who only had 7 interceptions in 2022, picked off 3 Ryan Tannehill passes and shut the door in the 4th quarter as the Titans tried to come back with field goals.
The Titans love to shut down the run, so it was on Carr and his receivers, and he hit some big plays late to put the game away. The Panthers should be easier to run on, though Alvin Kamara is still suspended this week for the Saints.
However, Michael Thomas looked healthy, and Rashid Shaheed is now averaging over 14.0 yards per target since 2022. Shaheed, Thomas, and Chris Olave form a pretty solid trio of wide receivers for Carr, but enjoying a defense is something Carr will look most forward to this year, not to mention a very soft schedule that did not feature any of the top 10 preseason favorites in Super Bowl odds.
Tough Debut for Reich’s Panthers
Carolina was able to hang close with the Falcons in Atlanta, but the offense only generated 10 points thanks in part to turnovers. Bryce Young threw 2 interceptions to safety Jessie Bates, who he reportedly did not see on either play. It is a learning process this year for Young.
Miles Sanders also lost a fumble, and the Panthers started and ended the game with a failed 4th-down attempt, so you could almost say 5 of their possessions ended in turnovers.
The Panthers are going to struggle with this secondary as just like the Titans, they lack great receiving options with D.J. Moore traded to Chicago and D.J. Chark injured. Tight end Hayden Hurst led the team with 7 targets and caught Young’s first NFL touchdown, which is not an ideal situation for this passing game.
The Pick
The computer prediction does see a Carolina upset at home on Monday night, but we like the low total once again for one of these NFC South games. Both teams should stay around 20 points or less as they slug it out. The last time these teams played, it was an ugly 10-7 season finale, a game Carolina won despite completing 5 passes and throwing 2 interceptions.
Things should look better than that, but the under is still our best bet for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Panthers 19 – Saints 16
NFL Pick: Under 40½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
49ers Look to Continue NFC West Dominance
San Francisco won in convincing fashion (30-7) in Pittsburgh in an impressive performance for the whole team. The 49ers are on the road again in Los Angeles after the Rams had an upset win in Seattle where Matthew Stafford looked healthy. But can the offensive line hold up?
The 49ers are an 8-point road favorite with a total of 44.5 points.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Any Flaws on the 49ers?
The 49ers have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL with a 13-1 record in their last 14 games, a stretch that started with their sweep of the Rams last season.
Quarterback Brock Purdy has never faced the Rams before, but he is now 9-0 in games where he throws at least 20 passes. Purdy looked fantastic against Pittsburgh’s defense, and so did running back Christian McCaffrey, who rushed for 152 yards.
San Francisco repeatedly pressured Kenny Pickett and held the Steelers to a single scoring drive. It is hard to say this team has any real flaws with so many talented players at every level on offense and defense. Even rookie kicker Jake Moody was able to make his first 3 kicks without an issue in Pittsburgh’s tough stadium for kickers.
Purdy was the question mark coming in, but he delivered in Week 1 with one of his best passing performances yet. Brandon Aiyuk is the forgotten man in this offense, but he is a legitimate No. 1 option in his own right. The 49ers just have so many ways to beat teams.
Rams: Upset or Underrated?
Not much was expected from the Rams in Seattle, but it should be noted the Seahawks needed a pair of 4th-quarter comebacks against the Rams last year in games where Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald did not play.
Sean McVay has been getting the best of Pete Carroll for a while now, but things have been different in this rivalry where McVay’s only notable victory is the 2021 NFC Championship Game, which still needed a 10-point comeback in the 4th quarter.
Kyle Shanahan is 9-4 against McVay, including an 8-1 record since 2019. The turning point in the NFC West last year was when the Rams were swept by the 49ers after being unable to deal with that pass rush. Stafford took 9 sacks in those meetings and the Rams were held to a combined 23 points in 8 quarters.
Stafford was protected very well in a vintage performance against Seattle last week, but the Seahawks lack pass rushers. He will be pressured much better this week, and it will be hard to repeat that success without Cooper Kupp (hamstring). The Rams got 119 yards each out of Tutu Atwell and rookie Puka Nacua, but the 49ers defense is a whole different beast.
The Pick
Whether it’s Purdy throwing to his weapons or McCaffrey dominating on the ground, the 49ers should be able to score nearly 30 points in this game. The Rams did not run the ball well in Seattle, leaning on Stafford to deliver accurate balls from clean pockets to unheralded receivers.
It may not be 30-7 again this week but look for the 49ers to cover this spread for your NFL picks and take the lead in the NFC West with a 2-0 start.
Score Prediction: 49ers 28 – Rams 17
NFL Pick: 49ers -8 (-113) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Will Jaguars Win Shootout With Chiefs?
The Chiefs swept the Jaguars last season, though neither win came that easy. The Chiefs were minus-3 in turnovers in the 27-17 win in the regular season, and they had to overcome Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain in the 27-20 playoff win.
But health may be on their side as Travis Kelce and Chris Jones could make their season debut in Week 2. The Chiefs are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 51 points.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at EverBank Stadium
Travis Kelce to the Rescue?
The Chiefs no doubt missed having Kelce (knee) in the opener against Detroit, but the hyperbole about that game has gotten out of control. According to Pro Football Reference, Patrick Mahomes had a 16.2% bad throw rate, which would not even rank among his 45 highest games since 2018.
However, the Chiefs dropped 5 passes for a 13.5% drop rate, which is the 5th-highest game of Mahomes’ career. Two of those drops were game-changers by Kadarius Toney, who turned an easy catch into a pick-6 for Detroit and then dropped a pass that would have put the Chiefs in range for a game-winning field goal.
Mahomes will be fine, and with the optimism that Kelce will return for this game, things should be very good again. The Chiefs scored 27 points in both matchups last year with Jacksonville, and that was despite Mahomes having a high-ankle sprain in the 1st quarter of the playoffs.
It would be hard for the Chiefs to drop the ball worse than they did in Week 1. They should get back to scoring their usual number of points here, which they were already close to doing against Detroit without Kelce. Do not give up on the Chiefs after a one-off night.
Jaguars Ready With Calvin Ridley
The Jaguars won one of Week 1’s higher-scoring games, 31-21 against the Colts, despite some miscues like Trevor Lawrence’s weird fumble returned for a touchdown. But Lawrence was instantly able to connect with Calvin Ridley, who broke 100 yards and scored a touchdown in his first NFL game since the 2021 season.
Jacksonville hung in there twice with the Chiefs last year despite being outmatched, but Ridley is a weapon that could get them over the hump. The Jaguars had a couple of bad turnovers in the 4th quarter of that playoff game or they may have scored 27 in that one on the road too.
The Pick
The atmosphere should be electric as this is a big game for both teams. Mahomes should have Kelce and the Chiefs should be very motivated to make up for that ugly Week 1 loss. The Jaguars also have a lot of weapons and the recent experience of playing this team in big games.
Bypass the spread and go right to the total. Take the over at the NFL odds and enjoy the show as the Jaguars look for one of their biggest regular-season wins in a long time.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 28 – Chiefs 26
NFL Pick: Over 51 (-103) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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