Top NFL Pick: Cardinals ML (+130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Arizona Cardinals (4-12) were favored before the season to finish with the worst record in the NFL this year. But that distinction is going to the Carolina Panthers (2-14), and with a win this Sunday against the Seahawks, Arizona can finish 14th in the NFC and hit its over of 4.5 wins for the season.
It would be the team’s first winning streak this season under rookie coach Jonathan Gannon, who has already pulled off some of the season’s best upset wins against the Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles just last week.
The Seahawks (8-8) need a win and some help to make the playoffs again. But they are on a 2-5 slide after a 6-3 start. Seattle is still a 3-point road favorite at the main offshore sportsbooks, but we have our reasons for why the Cardinals are a good upset choice on the NFL odds this week to end the regular season.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Ground Control
When these teams met in Seattle in Week 7, there were some key players missing for the Cardinals. While quarterback Kyler Murray was still recovering from his torn ACL, it was also a game without star running back James Conner.
Emari Demercado handled the lead back snaps and finished with 13 carries for 58 yards. Those aren’t bad numbers, but it could have been better in what was ultimately a close game that Seattle pulled out 20-10 in the end.
On the season, Demercado has a rushing success rate of 43.1%, which pales in comparison to Conner (51.4%), who is also a better receiver. Conner was showing off those receiving skills with a one-handed touchdown grab in Philadelphia last week. But he also rushed for a season-high 128 yards and the game-winning touchdown in that game.
Conner’s Crucial Role
Big Conner games are usually indicative of a good offensive day for the Cardinals this year. Arizona is 4-2 when Conner rushes for at least 70 yards, and they scored at least 24 points in each of those games.
Conner needs to be the focal point again this week against a Seattle run defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed and 25th in yards per carry. Seattle has allowed at least 136 rushing yards in 6 straight games, including 202 yards to Pittsburgh last week, as Najee Harris tried his best Conner impersonation.
This could be a big game for Conner if the Cardinals can find the offensive rhythm they had last week in Philadelphia when they took the ball down the field for 4 straight touchdown drives after halftime.
Kyler Murray’s Situation
In addition to Conner, Kyler Murray also can run well from the quarterback position, either by design or on those deadly scrambles where he can cover so much ground quickly.
Joshua Dobbs was the quarterback in Week 7 when these teams met, and one of his best plays was a 25-yard touchdown run. Murray can do more passing than Dobbs, and he has found a new favorite target in tight end Trey McBride, who leads the team with 78 catches and 791 yards.
The Seattle defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards to tight ends this year with 875 yards. McBride’s play has only improved since Week 7 with the return of Murray to the lineup.
This matchup also could serve as Murray’s final audition in front of the Arizona crowd, as the team will have to decide whether to bring him back for 2024 or move on in the draft with a new franchise quarterback. He has plenty to play for in this game.
Third Downs
Third down was usually a problem for Gannon’s defense in Philadelphia last year in losses, but it has been a problem all year for Arizona. The Cardinals rank dead last on 3rd down, allowing teams to convert 47.2% of the time.
In Week 7, the Seahawks were 7-of-13 on 3rd down, a very good conversion rate.
But the Seahawks are in a similar boat, as they rank 31st on 3rd down, allowing offenses to convert 46.8% of the time. So, we have a game between the 2 worst defenses on 3rd down.
Furthermore, the Arizona offense has actually done a better job of staying on the field on 3rd down than Seattle this year. The Cardinals rank 15th (39.2%) compared to Seattle, which ranks 25th (35.4%).
The Cardinals are also a better offense in the red zone, where they rank 5th in touchdown rate (63.4%). The Seahawks are only 24th (49.0%) and that also happens to be their ranking in red zone defense.
Containing DK Metcalf
We mentioned the Cardinals getting Murray and Conner back from Week 7, but the Seahawks also won that 20-10 game without No. 1 wide receiver DK Metcalf, who is having another good year with 1,104 yards and 8 touchdowns.
While this is technically a new-look Arizona defense with plenty of new faces and a new coaching staff, Metcalf has historically struggled against the Cardinals. He has just 235 receiving yards in 8 career games against Arizona. Metcalf has never had more than 58 yards in any game against Arizona, and they have held him under 50 yards in 7-of-8 games.
This will be interesting to see if the streak continues, because we saw similar results with the Cardinals (under the old staff) being about the only defense that could contain Cooper Kupp of the Rams, another elite receiver from a division rival. Against Gannon’s defense this year, Kupp had 148 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, but he was held to just 18 yards in the rematch in Arizona in late November.
We’ll see how Metcalf fares in his first matchup against Gannon’s defense in Arizona. The Seahawks are 1-4 this year when Metcalf has under 55 receiving yards.
Seattle’s Offensive Slump
We know Seattle’s offense has regressed from last year despite adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the receivers with a 1st-round pick. But things have fallen off more recently, as the Seahawks have not scored more than 23 points in 6-of-7 games coming into Sunday.
The poor situational offense we described earlier is a reason for that. Geno Smith also just hasn’t been as sharp this season, and the offense certainly misses quarterbacks coach Dave Canales, who is helping Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay as their offensive coordinator this season.
Seattle’s running game has also been very inconsistent, ranked 29th in yards.
The Seahawks have not reached 17 points in 6-of-8 losses this year. Last week was only the second time it did so, in a 30-23 loss to Pittsburgh, and even that involved a late field goal that took too long and did not leave enough time to get another possession.
The Pick
The Seahawks were fortunate to win 20-10 against Arizona last time when they were minus-3 in the turnover department. Arizona comes in off a big win, has the running game to shred the Seahawks on the ground, and Murray should want to finish strong to give the team a lot to consider for his future.
The playoff chances for Seattle do not look great, and they will need the Packers, who are hosting Chicago at the same time as this game, to lose to make the playoffs. It worked out for them on the final Sunday last year, but this year the Seahawks may very well fail to even get this win in Week 18 for a winning record. We are taking Arizona at home for the upset.
NFL Pick: Cardinals ML (+130) at Bovada
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