Top NFL Pick: Falcons ML (+130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Atlanta Falcons (7-8) are going to have to win a pair of road games if they want to make the playoffs and make sure coach Arthur Smith is back for 2024. The first test is in Chicago against the Bears (6-9), who are coming off a 27-16 win over Arizona that was closer than it needed to be at the end.
The Falcons are only 2-5 on the road this year, but they had one of their best performances of the season last week in a 29-10 win over the Colts. The Bears are 3-1 in the last month, but they basically need to play lights out on defense to win games this year.
It should be another tight game as it usually is for these teams. The Falcons are a 3-point road underdog at many of the main offshore sportsbooks. We have our reasons for why we think they are a good upset choice on our NFL odds for this week.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
First to 20 Wins?
Both teams are below average in scoring, so this could be the kind of game where the first team to 20 wins, if anyone even gets to 20 points.
- The Falcons are 1-7 when allowing 20 or more points and 5-4 when scoring 20 or more points this season.
- The Bears are 1-8 when allowing 20 or more points and 4-3 when scoring 20 or more points this season.
The Falcons have more games with 20 points scored and one fewer with 20 points allowed. Chicago has more points on the season as it padded its stats against the Broncos (near the time they allowed 70 points in Miami) and Commanders (32nd in scoring defense). Justin Fields threw 8 of his 15 touchdown passes in those 2 games this year.
Falcons Boast Better Defense
The Falcons have the better defense after bringing together a bunch of veterans in the offseason for new coordinator Ryan Nielsen. The Falcons have held 3-of-4 opponents to 10 points coming into this one.
Last week was impressive as the Colts scored a touchdown on their opening drive, then never found the end zone again as the Falcons won 29-10. The Colts are one of the best-scoring teams this year, so holding them to 10 is a good feat.
The Falcons rank No. 6 at scoring defense this year while the Bears are No. 21. In situational play, the Falcons are considerably better:
- Atlanta is the No. 3 defense on 3rd down (33.7%) and the No. 1 defense in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on 38.1% of attempts.
- Chicago is the No. 29 defense on 3rd down (43.7%) and the No. 32 defense in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on 72.5% of attempts.
That means we have the best red zone defense against the worst in this matchup. The Atlanta offense has struggled more in that area of the field, but facing No. 32 is a nice boost to consider.
Taylor Heinicke: Lack of Turnovers
The Falcons are going with Taylor Heinicke again at quarterback. He was solid against the Colts, throwing for 229 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. That was big as the Colts had a 19-game streak of forcing at least 1 turnover, but that was snapped by Atlanta’s offense.
Any trip to Chicago means you need to protect the ball and not fuel them with short fields on giveaways. Fortunately, Henicke has only been intercepted once in 107 pass attempts for Atlanta this year. He has not thrown multiple interceptions in any of his last 15 appearances going back to 2021 (min. 15 passes).
Chicago has a top-ranked run defense, so this may not be the best game to get Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson going on the ground. But the Falcons should still try after getting 177 yards on the ground last week, another key to victory over the Colts.
If the Falcons have to throw more, hopefully, they will remember how good Kyle Pitts and Drake London can be, as that has been a problem in Smith’s offense not utilizing its best players enough.
The good news for Heinicke is that the Bears have a poor pass rush and rarely blitz. The Bears only have 27 sacks, the 3rd-lowest total in the league this year. Chicago’s pressure rate of 17.9% is the 5th lowest in the league too.
Close Game Edge: Can’t Trust Justin Fields
This is going to sound familiar, but the Atlanta Falcons are tied for the most blown 4th-quarter leads with 4 this season. This franchise feels cursed in close games, but at least their success hasn’t been as bad as the Bears under Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields.
Eberflus is now 2-15 (.118) at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities with the Bears. These are games where the Bears had the ball in the 4th quarter and trailed by 1-to-8 points. All of that record is with Fields at quarterback, and he is 2-15 (.118) in that situation, the worst record among active starters.
The Bears have done a lot of damage to their record in close games by blowing leads with turnovers on offense. Fields even started the 4th quarter last Sunday with a brutal interception in the end zone to give Arizona a chance instead of extending to a 3-score lead.
But in coming from behind, he is one of the least reliable quarterbacks ever, and that’s even if the game only is asking him to get a field goal set up.
The Falcons are 5-6 in all close games this year, which is a better record than Chicago (3-6). Arthur Smith is a more respectable 8-14 (.364) at comeback opportunities.
The Pick
The Falcons have the better defense, the better coach, and arguably the better quarterback in this matchup. They also have a little more to play for with the division title still up for grabs in the NFC South.
In a game that should come down to the 4th quarter, we are going to actually trust the Falcons to outlast the Bears to solidify this Chicago era as an all-time bad team in crunch time, and that is why sweeping changes should be happening in the offseason.
NFL Pick: Falcons ML (+130) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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