Editor’s Note: The Vikings announced Jaren Hall as the starter shortly after publishing the article.
Top NFL Pick: Vikings -2.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 17 schedule has a rare Saturday night matchup between the Lions and Cowboys that could be the sneaky choice for game of the week. The week will begin with the Browns as a heavy favorite to take care of the Jets, and Sunday night is a rematch in the NFC North between Green Bay and Minnesota as both sit at 7-8.
We have our top NFL odds for each night of prime-time games in Week 17, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Will Nick Mullens Protect the Ball?
The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings are both 7-8 and in virtual must-win mode for the NFC wild card race. The Vikings already beat Green Bay 24-10 earlier this year, but that was the game where Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Enter Nick Mullens, who moves the ball well but also suffers a lot of turnovers. He will have an interesting matchup against Joe Barry, the embattled defensive coordinator from Green Bay.
The Vikings are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 45.5 points. Can Mullens cut down on the turnovers to deliver a much-needed win for the Vikings?
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Nick Mullens vs. Joe Barry’s Defense
For the Packers, it is unfortunate that Jordan Love’s recent hot streak (13 touchdowns, 1 interception in last 6 games) has coincided with Joe Barry’s defense falling apart and making every game a struggle.
Quarterbacks have largely been feasting on the Packers, and it’s not even the stars doing it. Tommy DeVito had a historic game for the Giants as an undrafted rookie when he completed 80% of his passes, ran for 70 yards, and didn’t have a sack or interception against Green Bay.
A week later, Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers threw for over 380 yards and 4 touchdowns while posting the first perfect passer rating (158.3) at Lambeau Field.
Last week, the Panthers still lost, but Bryce Young had the best game of his rookie season with over 300 yards passing and he led his team to a season-high 30 points. He came up 1 second short of putting his kicker on the field for a game-tying field goal to go to overtime.
Now it’s Nick Mullens’ turn against this defense, and he has Justin Jefferson playing at a high level again. Mullens throws way too many interceptions and needs to cut that down, but he takes chances and hits big plays too. You take the good with the bad.
The Green Bay defense only has 16 takeaways, one of the lowest totals in the league this year. The Packers have only forced multiple takeaways in 4-of-15 games this year.
If Mullens can avoid those turnovers, he should light this defense up for big numbers.
Jordan Love vs. Brian Flores’ Defense
Love is getting a 2nd look at Brian Flores’ defense after the Packers were held to a season-low 10 points at home in Week 8. Flores runs a unique brand of defense in Minnesota where the Vikings blitz more than anyone and drop 8 defenders more than anyone this season.
Love only averaged 4.5 completed air yards per play in that game against Minnesota. The Packers are only 1-6 this year when Love is held to 5.5 completed air yards per play. The Vikings also sacked him 4 times, tied for his 2nd-highest total in a game this year.
The Packers are 1-8 when Love’s yards per pass attempt is under 7.4 this year and 6-0 when he is above 7.4. Against the Vikings, Love was at 5.59 yards per attempt, tied for his worst game of the season.
Look for Flores to continue sending the inexperienced Love different looks to hopefully create effective pressures and kill drives. The Lions scored 30 points on the Vikings last week but did so with just one 20-yard play. Love has to keep his patience on the road.
The Pick
The last 4 games between these teams have been decided by 14 or more points. This one should be closer, but we are going to back the home team to deliver with Mullens not throwing another pick parade and lighting up Joe Barry’s defense to a number that Love won’t match this time.
NFL Pick: Vikings -2.5 (-115) at Bovada
Respect for Detroit or Redemption for Dallas?
The Detroit Lions are division champions for the first time since 1993, but they have not won a playoff game since they beat Dallas in the 1991 season. Another big win over Dallas in prime time would be a good road test for the Lions going into the playoffs, but the Cowboys are also looking for a quality win at home after losing on the road to the Bills and Dolphins the last 2 weeks.
The Cowboys are a 6-point home favorite with a total of 53 points. We are focusing on the spread for this matchup.
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Saturday, December 30, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Dallas: Home Sweet Home
The Cowboys are no doubt an elite home team where they have 6 wins by 20-plus points this year. But many of those opponents were outmatched from the start. The team that did give Dallas all it could handle at home was Seattle, which wasn’t expected, as Geno Smith looked awful the week before against the 49ers, but he was money on that night in a 41-35 loss where Dallas really had to earn it.
Maybe that game can be a blueprint as it is going to take a big effort from the Lions on both sides of the ball. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are great at being competitive. Since 2021, Detroit has the best spread record in the NFL at 33-16 (67.4%). In fact, they are directly ahead of Dallas at 33-19 ATS (63.5%).
Detroit has lost twice this year on the road by 15 points to the Bears and by 32 points in a domination by Baltimore in Week 7. But generally, the Lions show up and play hard for Campbell, and while they have the NFC North in hand now, they still have a lot to play for here.
In fact, the No. 1 seed is still very much up for grabs after the 49ers lost to the Ravens on Monday night. The Lions are tied for the best record in the NFC at 11-4, so the team’s journey is not done yet in this regular season.
Detroit Can Attack in Many Ways
You could make the argument that the Detroit offense is more talented than the Dallas offense. Most would take Dak Prescott over Jared Goff, but the difference isn’t as huge as some think there. But at wide receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown is right up there with CeeDee Lamb as legitimate No. 1 stars, and the supporting receivers are very close too, with Brandin Cooks not a big contributor anymore and Michael Gallup still a little slow after his injury in 2021. Jameson Williams can still develop into a big-time player for the Lions.
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been a stud right away and is better than Jake Ferguson. Tony Pollard looked great last year but has not been as good this season with Ezekiel Elliott gone. There’s a big edge there for the Detroit backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions have 6 players with over 500 yards from scrimmage this year compared to 4 for Dallas.
Both offensive lines are very good. The Lions fare better statistically in pass protection and run blocking.
The Cowboys have fattened their defensive stats against a lot of poor offenses this year. The Lions are one of the most formidable offenses they will face, and they can attack in a variety of ways from all areas of the field.
The Pick
Since these teams last met, Detroit has only lost 4-of-26 games by more than 6 points. This team has the balanced offense to hang with the Cowboys in Dallas, and the defense just needs to do enough to keep Dallas under 30 to likely get a cover in what could be a high-scoring game.
The Cowboys may still win, but we’ll trust the Lions to cover on the road and make life tough on Dallas.
NFL Pick: Lions +6 (-105) at Bovada
Myles Garrett’s DPOY Final Audition
The Cleveland Browns (10-5) are rolling behind quarterback Joe Flacco and in position for the top wild card spot in the AFC. They get a dream matchup against the Jets, a team that struggles to score. Can this be a dream matchup in prime time for Myles Garrett to make his case for Defensive Player of the Year?
The Browns are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 36.5 points. We are looking at the spread.
New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Myles Garrett Can Feast on This Line
In a way, the offensive line ruined the season for the Jets. Even with 4 snaps, you could see Aaron Rodgers under pressure on every play before he tore his Achilles in Week 1. Since then, the Jets have not had the blocking to produce any kind of consistent running game, and the quarterbacks have taken 61 sacks.
This makes for a very bad matchup with a Cleveland front that has Myles Garrett playing a Defensive Player of the Year type of pace this season. The Browns have been utterly dominant in many games, and no defense has allowed fewer yards or 1st downs.
The biggest detriment to this defense is an offense that has a league-high 32 giveaways and puts them in bad positions. That is why the Browns do not rank higher in scoring defense when the unit has done such a good job of limiting yards.
But the Jets usually do not score 14 points in games this year. Their 30 points last week against Washington were done thanks to mistakes and field position, and Washington is the 32nd-ranked scoring defense. The Jets will be lucky to score 14 points in this matchup, and that might be true even if Joe Flacco throws a pick-6.
Joe Flacco: Revenge-Ish Game
Joe Flacco started the 2022 season at quarterback for the Jets when Zach Wilson suffered a preseason injury. He also started the season finale but the team did not bring him back. They had a chance to bring him back into the fold when Aaron Rodgers was injured in Week 1, but they relied on Wilson and players like Tim Boyle and now Trevor Siemian.
But no one thought Flacco could come off the couch and play as well as he has for the Browns in the last month. He has passed for over 310 yards and multiple touchdowns in 3 straight wins, something Patrick Mahomes last did for the Chiefs in 2020.
Flacco should have a chip on his shoulder in playing his former team, who could have given him another shot to produce better results than this quarterback carousel has. Flacco is showing great chemistry with Amari Cooper (franchise-record 265 yards in Week 16) and tight end David Njoku.
The Pick
Flacco gets a tough matchup here with the Jets’ defense, but with a Super Bowl-caliber defense supporting him, this could be a 17-7 win that covers for the Browns. They are the better team on both sides of the ball and should have few problems in snatching their 11th win as Kevin Stefanski eyes a top wild card spot and maybe the Coach of the Year award.
NFL Pick: Browns -7 (-110) at Bovada
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