NFL Top Pick: Bears +3 ½ (-118) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger went 2-2 against the number last week but, nevertheless, made a few bucks with a pair of 4-unit ATS covers. It was his third consecutive week of beating the books and now it’s time to see if he can do it one more time as we enter Week 14 of the NFL season. Let’s dive into the best NFL odds provided by our main offshore sportsbooks.
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 18-22 ATS (-22.30 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 13 Recap
If you’re a regular reader of this column, you likely know of my aversion to bad beat stories. I have reiterated it many times in print and to those friends of mine who like to bet a bunch when they’ve got a hunch. But when those bad beats come, so do my friends, telling me their tales of woe and describing the bad beat as if I don’t already know the ending to this endless movie.
That said, I won’t cry about Tennessee’s two blocked punts that served up 10 points to the Colts like a big ol’ bowl of mocha chip. Oh, and Nick Folk’s missed extra point was just the cherry on top of a horrific bad beat, not only for the 2 units I placed on the Titans but the 4 units on the total. Although the Colts won, 31-28, nine of those points came in overtime, making it 19 points that should never have made the scoreboard, crushing my under-43 wager.
I just cried about a bad beat, didn’t I? Well, maybe not cried but I whimpered, no doubt. Anyway, the 4 units I put on the Dolphins were never in doubt as they rag-dolled the Commanders, 45-15, as 9 ½-point road chalk, and the Panthers hung around to get a cover in their 21-18 loss to the Bucs, adding another 4 units for the good guys.
We wound up making a few units on the day. Big deal, we should’ve swept but, again, I’m not crying.
BTW, this weekly column is written on Wednesdays, thus, if my lines are off when you read them over the weekend, what can I tell you? I use what’s in front of me at the time it’s written so don’t @ me on X, my children.
Let’s sweep it up on Sunday and put a big dent into this deficit. I’m down –are you?
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Key Stats
- Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games played on a Sunday.
- Cleveland is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games against an AFC opponent.
- Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games against AFC North opponents.
Jacksonville lost their starter, Trevor Lawrence, in their 34-31 loss to the Bengals on Monday night. The good news is that Lawrence will likely return at some point this season but the better news, for us anyway, is that he will not be suiting up this week against the Browns.
The Cats will have to cross their fingers and pray that C.J. Beathard will come out slingin’ after completing a grand total of 26 passes over the last three years. Rust much?
But here’s the thing. Any quarterback will be sweating the likes of Myles Garrett, especially without two starting tackles to protect him. And to top all of that off, Christian Kirk, one of the team’s most reliable receivers will also miss this game after he got rattled in last week’s loss.
Sure, the Browns will be using a backup quarterback as well but will be facing the Jags’ 30th-ranked EPA defense with a secondary that is ranked 28th, allowing 255 yards per game. The Brownies are at home and will win this one going away.
NFL Pick: Browns -3 (-118) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
Key Stats
- Chicago is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Chicago is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 14.
- Chicago covered as 7 ½ point road underdogs in their last meeting with Detroit.
It was only three weeks ago that the Bears nearly upset the Lions in Motown, holding a 26-14 advantage with less than five minutes remaining in the game. But bad teams do what bad teams do –lose leads and lose games. Voila! I give you the Chicago Bears!
And while I’m not fond of throwing good money on bad teams, I think we’ve found a spot for the Bears to thrive. Justin Fields does two things well. He runs the ball and scrambles out of trouble, which is what vexed the Lions the last time these teams met. Fields picked up 104 yards on 18 carries and he moved the sticks like a champ.
He will do precisely the same thing this week despite conditions that won’t be very friendly to either offense. And that leads me to my next point. Jared Goff does not like the outdoors and abhors bad weather. Soldier Field will be freezing on Sunday with 15 miles per hour winds and a chance of rain or snow. Jared will not be happy!
But that’s quite alright because this will undoubtedly have an adverse effect on the Lions’ passing game, which means the Bears will likely keep pace in this one. This is also a revenge game for the Bears, which makes this a betting opportunity too good to pass up in what should be a low-scoring affair.
NFL Pick: Bears +3 ½ (-118) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
NFL Pick: Under 44 (-110) for 2 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (5-8 ATS)
The Woodman notched two consecutive winning weeks before he went down to defeat in Week 12, but last week he picked himself up, dusted himself off, and made a savvy wager on the Cincinnati Bengals, a 9-point road dog that won the game outright on Monday night!
Okay, a 5-8 ATS season is nothing to rave about but when you’re dying of thirst, you don’t ask if the water is Avion. A cover is a cover and this week my man is turning the tables on his dog-loving friends and getting all chalky with the Dallas Cowboys -3 ½ over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night.
As always, the Woodman says, “Bet the Farm!”
Woodman’s Pick: Cowboys -3 ½ (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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