The NFL’s Week 13 schedule is headlined by a fantastic matchup for NFC superiority between the 49ers and Eagles. But there is a sneaky good AFC game between the Broncos and Texans, who are both 6-5 and seeking a wild-card berth. We also have a favorable pick in the Dolphins-Commanders game.
We studied the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review and picked out our top spreads or totals for your Week 13 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Tyreek Hill Will Be Flying in Washington
The Miami Dolphins have not been playing like a No. 1 offense as of late, but they did just score 34 points on the road against the Jets (Hail Mary pick-6 included). Now they draw the No. 32 scoring defense in Washington, which fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio after the team’s humiliating 45-10 loss in Dallas on Thanksgiving.
The Dolphins are a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5 points. We are looking at the over for this one.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Bombs Away for Tyreek Hill
As Tyreek Hill continues his pursuit of the NFL’s first 2,000-yard receiving season, he will be thrilled to face the league’s worst defense at allowing points and passing touchdowns. Big plays are always available against Washington, and it does not look likely that a change at coordinator in late November will fix the issues this roster has. Remember, the Commanders traded Chase Young (49ers) and Montez Sweat (Bears) on the trade deadline, so they have even less talent now to work with.
If Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and maybe De’Von Achane can return, it would give Washington fits on defense for this matchup. As long as Tua Tagovailoa avoids those pesky turnovers, Miami should have little problem scoring over 30 points in this game.
Most of Miami’s scoring issues this year have been against the better teams in big matchups like those losses to the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs. Washington is headed nowhere fast, so this is an ideal game for Miami to shine.
Sam Howell Keeps Throwing
If there is one thing that you can expect from Washington, it is passing attempts. The Commanders have Sam Howell throw more than anyone, and it’s helped him lead the NFL in passing yards (3,339) going into Week 13. It has also led to a league-high 55 sacks taken.
But with the way the Commanders play offense, they will be ready for a shootout with Miami. That does not mean they can keep up, but they will at least forgo the run and throw to keep pace with what the Dolphins are expected to do in this game.
Washington’s offense has not cracked 20 points in the last 2 games, but the Cowboys have a much better defense than Miami, and the Giants are a division foe that has been a thorn in Washington’s side for several years. Miami is an unfamiliar opponent, and while the defense is getting better there, the Commanders should be able to surpass 20 points this week.
Adjust the computer score to 35-21 if you like. It’s still enough to go over 50.5 points. Even a game between the Commanders and Giants hit 50 points in Week 11, so Miami should be able to get over the hump on this one for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 36 – Commanders 23
Let Russ Cook vs. Texans?
The Denver Broncos (6-5) are back in the playoff race thanks to a 5-game winning streak that has been fueled by getting turnovers on defense. But Russell Wilson may need to feast more on a pass defense in Houston that just allowed Trevor Lawrence to complete 4 passes for over 40 yards in Week 12. The Texans have a formidable offense with C.J. Stroud too and the Texans are also 6-5 and in the playoff hunt.
The Texans are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points. We think Houston can bounce back with this matchup and end Denver’s winning streak.
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Houston’s Offense Stalled Last Week
While the Texans failed in their bid to sweep Jacksonville and take control of the AFC South, they were still in a 24-21 game with the ball late. Their drive came up a little short, and their backup kicker watched a 58-yard field goal hit the crossbar to end the game.
But it was a bad day for the offensive line as Laremy Tunsil and company were overwhelmed by the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud was sacked 4 times, and there were multiple holding penalties that killed other drives. The Texans also cost themselves a 60-yard gain with Tank Dell getting penalized for an illegal shift, a ticky-tack call at the time.
It was a young team learning a lesson in big games and why all those little mistakes can add up to a loss. Stroud still passed for over 300 yards for the 4th game in a row, the first rookie to ever do that.
Denver has done an incredible turnaround from the defense that allowed 70 points in Miami in Week 3. Denver has not allowed more than 22 points in the last 6 games, but Houston’s offense is very capable of moving the ball, and the Texans usually protect the ball well. Houston only has 11 turnovers this season, and it did not have any in the Sunday loss against Jacksonville.
Denver has 15 takeaways over the last 4 games, which is a big reason why the team keeps winning, despite being an underdog or slight favorite in these games. But if the Texans can protect the ball, they will have success against this defense.
Denver’s Offense Needs More Passing
Through 11 games under Sean Payton, Russell Wilson is averaging 199.9 passing yards per game, his lowest since his 2012 rookie season in Seattle (194.9). Some of this is correlated to the turnovers the Broncos have been producing that have given Wilson so many short fields (fewer yards to gain), but it is still odd to see a quarterback at 200 yards per game in a Payton offense.
That is why you could say Wilson is playing more like Taysom Hill than Drew Brees in this offense if we are comparing to it Payton’s success with the Saints. It’s not just the volume either. Wilson’s 6.9 yards per attempt is the lowest of his career and would be his first season under 7.0.
Wilson has 20 touchdown passes and is doing well in that stat, but part of that is because Denver had only 1 rushing touchdown before Sunday’s win over Cleveland. Denver’s offense is no doubt improved from where it was last year under Nathaniel Hackett, but it’s still much closer to a mediocre unit at best this year. Once the turnovers on defense dry up, can this offense contend with a good offense and win a shootout?
Denver is the 11th defense since 2006 to force at least 3 takeaways in 4 straight games. Only one of those teams, the 2019 Steelers, were able to do it in a 5th-straight game. Look for Houston to protect the ball, Stroud to outplay Wilson, and the Texans to win a one-score game that is still enough for the cover for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Texans 28 – Broncos 22
NFL Pick: Texans -3.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
49ers vs. Eagles: The NFC Game of the Year Is Here
This was the NFC game to circle when the schedule was released in the spring. They met in last year’s NFC Championship Game, and it never felt like a fair fight after Brock Purdy injured his elbow on the team’s opening drive. They are the current top 2 seeds again, as the Eagles are 10-1 following another 10-point comeback win against Buffalo.
The Eagles keep winning them close while the 49ers are rarely challenged like that. The Eagles are a 2.5-point home underdog, which is unusual to see in a matchup like this given the records involved. But our favorite pick is going over the total of 46.5 points.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
San Francisco’s Great Offense Can Finally Shine vs. Eagles
These teams have played some low-scoring games since 2021, but that should change this time. In 2021, it was Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback for the 49ers against a young Jalen Hurts. In last year’s title game, Brock Purdy injured his elbow on the opening drive, Josh Johnson suffered a concussion, and the 49ers were basically left without a quarterback who could throw in the 2nd half of that 31-7 loss.
This year, Purdy is healthy and he is statistically outperforming Hurts in almost every category. If there wasn’t such a stigma attached to Kyle Shanahan’s system and Purdy being Mr. Irrelevant, he would probably be the MVP favorite most years.
The 49ers had that 3-game losing streak where they were held to 17 points each game, but they have scored 34, 27, and 31 points since the bye week. They are healthy and have so many weapons to choose from with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.
The Eagles are not as good defensively as they were last year. They stop the run well, but the Chiefs and Bills both found ways to rush for over 160 yards the last 2 weeks. Some of that was the quarterback running, but Purdy has shown some mobility this year.
The only common themes in San Francisco’s losses were turnovers and Purdy throwing a few more inaccurate passes than he usually does. The 49ers had 7 giveaways in those 3 games compared to 3 giveaways in their 8 wins.
Eagles Always Find a Way This Year
Like a horror movie villain, the Eagles are hard to kill. Even when you get them down double digits like multiple teams have this year, they still win the game. They still find a way to score at least 21 points in every game but the 20-14 loss to the Jets.
The Eagles have a great offensive line, they have one of the best wide receiver duos, and they have an automatic conversion in short yardage with the Brotherly Shove. The Eagles scored 31 points in that title game against the 49ers despite Hurts not even playing that well.
The Eagles have scored at least 28 points in every home game this year. This matchup will be harder than most, but the 49ers better be thinking a minimum of 24 points to win this one. Even 34 wasn’t enough for Buffalo last week.
If you have been following this NFL season closely, then you know the island games at night have been awful for scoring, and the best shootouts in big games have been in late afternoon games. Think Cowboys-Eagles, Bills-Eagles, and Lions-Chargers.
This isn’t a playoff game, but it should have a playoff atmosphere. Both teams come in with a lot on the line and with MVP candidates at quarterback. This game could even turn that race over to the winner.
Under Sirianni since 2021, when the Eagles are at home, the over is 16-8 (66.7%), the highest hit rate in the league.
When we saw the computer score return a tie, we knew we weren’t touching the spread as the best pick here. It’s going to be the over, and it’s going to be a great game again this Sunday.
Score Prediction: 49ers 26 – Eagles 26
NFL Pick: Over 46.5 (-110) at BetAnySports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.