NFL Top Pick: Dolphins -9 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) for 4 units
Our man is starting to get hot, going 5-1 against the number over the last two weeks and looking to make another dent in his deficit this week. Swinger says he’s ready to rumble and bust the NFL books wide open so let’s see what he’s got in Week 13!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 16-20 ATS (-23.90 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 12 Recap
Okay, alright, we’re starting to hit our stride. Better late than never I guess, but let’s face it: we still have six more regular season weeks to go plus playoffs, so there is still plenty of time to erase this deficit and make some money this season.
After a 3-0 ATS sweep the week before, we notched a 2-1 ATS Week 12 with our only loss coming via the Raiders +9, even though they sprinted to a 14-0 lead and we were already counting our winnings. Their 31-17 meltdown to the Chiefs cost us 3 units but we did connect with the Colts -2 over the Bucs for two units and the Ravens -3 over the Bolts brought us 4 units.
All told, we struck 2.76 units off our NFL debt and will go back to work to get another sweep week in the bank. We’ve got four plays this week, so are you with me? Ready, set, bet!
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Key Stats
- Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
- Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in December.
- Tampa Bay is ranked No. 31 in rushing this season.
When you’re betting on the worst team in the league, you better have at least a few compelling reasons to do so. Well, I’m here to make an argument for the Panthers even though they are 1-9 straight up and 1-7-2 against the number.
The first reason is the caliber of their opponent. The Bucs are even worse than their 3-7 record attests. They can’t run the ball, ranked 31st in the league in that category, averaging only 81.3 yards per game.
But second, despite having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the wings, the Bucs are only a middling passing team, ranked 15th and averaging 222 yards per game. In other words, they don’t score very often, averaging just a scooch over 19 points per game.
Third, the Bucs have the 31st-ranked pass defense in the NFL, surrendering nearly 268 yards per contest, which means even Bryce Young might have a day of it. Oh, speaking of Young: the Panthers fired Frank Reich last week, and putting Young under the tutelage of another head coach can only produce better results for the struggling No. 1 overall pick.
Lastly, teams that change head coaches during the season historically play well in their first game under the new man in charge. Plus, the Bucs don’t score much and now they will be spotting an opponent 5 ½ points? Ah, that’s a hard no, let’s grab the points and bet the Cats big.
NFL Pick: Panthers +5 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports for 4 units
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
Key Stats
- Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Tennessee.
- Indianapolis is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Tennessee.
- Indianapolis is 6-12 SU in their last 18 games.
My lean on the total is stronger than it is for the Titans in this game. But I’m betting under 43 and Tennessee because I believe both are worthy wagers.
Tennessee will use Derrick Henry as a battering ram against this susceptible Colts run-stop unit, ranked 26th and allowing over 129 rushing yards. The Colts will happily engage in this game of ground-and-pound by sending Jonathan Taylor into a slightly stronger Titans’ run defense.
This game will be played between the 30s and could likely come down to which field goal kicker performs better. I believe we are going to have a score somewhere in the neighborhood of Titans 20 – Colts 17 which is why we are going low and eschewing the point spread for the moneyline with Tennessee.
NFL Pick: Titans ML (+100) at BetOnline for 2 units (visit our BetOnline Review)
NFL Pick: Under 43 (-110) at BetOnline for 4 units
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 03, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Key Stats
- Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 13.
- Washington is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against an AFC East opponent.
There are teams that I just believe are worth fading and the Commanders are one of them. So, if we couple that premise with the fact that they are playing one of the highest-flying offenses in the league then you know perfectly well where I’m headed. That’s right –Squaresville.
I don’t know how this inept Washington offense will be able to keep this game within the margins against a healthier and improving Miami defense. Moreover, the Commanders’ secondary has allowed more deep balls than any team in the league, so how do you think they’ll fare against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? Any guesses?
Miami owns the No. 1 passing unit in the league, averaging over 285 yards per game, while Washington’s pass defense checks in at No. 30. Does this smell like a blowout to you? It sure as hell does to me and I don’t care that the Commanders have home-field advantage. They could be playing in the owner’s backyard for all I care.
Brothers and sisters, let’s join hands and give an Amen and a Hallelujah to the Joe Q. Publics of the world who will be lining up to bet the Fish. On Sunday, and in this one game, we are one and the same.
NFL Pick: Dolphins -9 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports for 4 units
The Woodman’s Corner (4-8 ATS)
A third consecutive ATS winner was too much to ask as the Woodman hitched his wagon to the Browns last week as 2 ½ point underdogs to the Broncos. When the smoke cleared, Denver claimed a 29-12 victory and the Woodman dropped to 4-8 ATS on the season.
It’s been a rough year for all concerned but the Woodman is vowing to remain bloodied but unbowed. The Bengals +9 over the Jaguars are his choice this week and we’re hoping this road dog bites hard in J-Town.
And as always, Woodman says to, Bet the Farm!
Woodman’s Pick: Bengals +9 (-115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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