Top NFL Pick: Dolphins-Jets Under 39.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 12 schedule is unique in that it has a triple-header to celebrate Thanksgiving and the first time the league has ever had a Black Friday game in the middle of the afternoon between the Jets and Dolphins. In fact, every game on this holiday slate is a divisional matchup, so these teams know each other well in preparing on a short week.
We make our best bets for Week 12’s first 4 games below, and you can always find these bets at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Which Versions of Jared Goff and Jordan Love Show Up?
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions both had exciting 4th-quarter comeback wins this past Sunday. But the Packers will hope to play much better than they did in Week 4’s 34-20 loss at Lambeau Field to these Lions, who are now 8-2 and gaining confidence.
Detroit is a 7.5-point home favorite on Thanksgiving with a total of 47 points. We have the over on our plate.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Thursday, November 23, 2023 – 12:30 PM ET at Ford Field
Jared Goff’s Turnaround
The Lions were disappointing in front of the home crowd against Chicago, and a big part of the problem was quarterback Jared Goff. He was picked on his opening drive, picked again before halftime, and he nearly threw another pick in the red zone that may have been returned for a touchdown. He was not seeing the field well and did get intercepted for a 3rd time in the 3rd quarter.
But down 26-14 with just under 5 minutes remaining, Goff was able to lead a historic comeback. It rarely happens that a team comes back from a 2-score deficit this late in the game, but Goff was money on the final 2 touchdown drives to help his team to a 31-26 win.
He gets a Green Bay defense he’s won his last 4 starts against. He has 11 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in his career against the Packers. In Week 4, Goff did not have a huge game with 210 yards and a touchdown, but he spread the ball around well, and the running game had 211 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Hopefully the interceptions were a wake-up call to Goff, and he will play better in this game. But even with the mistakes Sunday, Detroit still scored 31 points. It could hit that mark again in this matchup.
Packers End Drought
The Packers had a 7-game streak without scoring 21 points, their longest since 1990-91 saw a 10-game futility run. But that streak is over after the Packers scored 23 points on the Chargers in last week’s comeback win.
Jordan Love had the first 300-yard passing game of his NFL career, and he also had the first game at home with 2 touchdown passes in his career. In Week 4, Love was awful against Detroit and did not look like he could complete a pass early in the game. But after settling down, he finished with a decent night (in garbage time) and the Packers still managed 20 points in defeat.
If Love can do that again or even improve on his play after Sunday’s nice win, then the Packers should have a solid contribution to helping this game hit the over.
The Pick
Green Bay’s defense only allowed 20 points to the Chargers but that was extremely misleading with the way Justin Herbert’s receivers flat out dropped multiple touchdowns and drive-extending plays on 3rd and 4th down. It could have easily been a 40-point game for the Chargers. Detroit is going to feast in this one.
But the Packers also might break 20 points once again with the way the Lions have struggled on defense in the last 2 games. If Green Bay can score 20 and Detroit can score 30 like in Week 4, then the over looks very appetizing in this matchup.
NFL Pick: Over 47 (-115) at Bovada
Cowboys to Crush Another Team?
Dallas is a frustrating team this season as we see the 6 wins by 20-plus points, tied for the 2nd-most through a team’s first 10 games in the Super Bowl era. But we also cannot overlook the 42-10 pounding in San Francisco or that they lost as a 13-point favorite in Arizona.
A game at home as an 11-point favorite against the Commanders is not likely to change opinions either, but we should not just take it for granted how easily Dallas can cover these spreads after winning their last 2 games against the Panthers and Giants by a combined 55 points.
Does Dallas have another big cover ready for Thanksgiving?
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, November 23, 2023 – 04:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Washington Is Quite Bad
Division games are tricky. The Commanders scored 31 points in both games against the Eagles and looked pretty solid doing so, but they just got swept by the lowly Giants after turning the ball over 6 times this past Sunday.
Not only did the Commanders struggle that much in protecting the ball, but they allowed rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito to throw 3 touchdown passes for a New York offense that had been the worst in the league all year.
What do you think will happen when they face a red-hot Dak Prescott, who has 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games? His passer rating is 120.6 in the last month, and he has not been sacked in the last 2 weeks.
Prescott is 9-2 against Washington in his career. In his last home start against the Commanders, he threw for 330 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 56-14 win in 2021. Even without Dak last year, the Cowboys beat Washington 25-10 at home.
This season, Washington has already lost 37-3 to Buffalo and 40-20 at home against lowly Chicago. This team is not unfamiliar with getting blown out.
The Dallas Defense vs. Sam Howell
Another reason to like Dallas by multiple scores in this one is its great pass rush against Sam Howell, who has taken a league-high 51 sacks this year. Howell also threw 3 interceptions against the Giants last week. His 12 interceptions are tied for the league lead this year, though he does throw the ball more than anyone with 442 passes, the only quarterback above 400 attempts.
But Howell is sure to be a human pinata for Dallas, including edge rusher Micah Parsons, who has hit 10 sacks for the 3rd season in a row. He is a leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and he had 2.5 sacks last week against Bryce Young and the Panthers.
Look for the Cowboys to put up at least 4 sacks in this game.
The Pick
Prescott lost his last game to the Commanders in Week 18 last year in a terrible 26-6 performance filled with turnovers, but the Cowboys are rolling right now, and Washington does not match up well on either side of the ball with this team.
Dallas is always capable of blowing a lay-up, but Washington does not have any real edges here.
NFL Pick: Cowboys -11 (-105) at Bovada
49ers Looking to Maintain Dominance in NFC West
The battle for 1st place in the NFC West will take place this Thursday night when the Seahawks (6-4) host the 49ers (7-3). The teams may be heading in opposite directions after the 49ers had a dominant 13-point win over Tampa Bay while the Seahawks blew a 13-point lead against the Rams in a game where Geno Smith was injured.
The 49ers are a 6.5-point road favorite, which sounds like a lot for a divisional game between the top contenders in the race. But after sweeping the Seahawks 3-0 last year, is San Francisco ready to end this race early with a commanding win? We look at the spread.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, November 23, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at Lumen Field
The 49ers Are Still Much Better
Last year, the 49ers had to play 3 different quarterbacks against Seattle and still went 3-0 against them. Trey Lance suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2, but the 49ers still won 27-7 with the Seattle offense not scoring any points that day. After Jimmy Garoppolo was injured, rookie Brock Purdy took over and led a 21-13 win in Seattle in Week 15.
In the wild card round, Purdy passed for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, numbers not seen by a rookie quarterback in a playoff game since Sammy Baugh way back in 1937. He led the 49ers to a 41-23 win though it was a close game at halftime. Things fell apart after Geno Smith fumbled late in the third quarter in scoring territory.
Flash forward to 2023, and the 49ers suddenly look better with Purdy no longer a rookie. He just had a perfect 158.3 passer rating against the Buccaneers, and he is leading the NFL in most passing efficiency categories. He’d be the leading MVP candidate if people weren’t so convinced it’s the system by Kyle Shanahan that is doing everything for him.
The Seahawks were hoping to challenge the 49ers for the division this year, but it is hard to say the team is that much improved from last year’s 9-8 finish that saw them sneak in as the final playoff seed.
The defense has been a little better than in 2022, but the offense has regressed. Rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has not had a big impact behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Kenneth Walker has been dealing with injuries and in fact he had to leave Sunday’s loss to the Rams with another injury.
Seattle’s Injuries
The short week could not have come at a worse time for the Seahawks. They have optimism that Geno Smith will play Thursday night, but he did have to leave the game momentarily in the 4th quarter with a triceps injury.
Drew Lock replaced Smith and was unable to move the offense. Worse, he threw an interception. If Lock has to play Thursday night, the Seahawks are in real trouble.
Walker is a different story. He could return to action too this Thursday, but the 49ers are usually so good on run defense and ahead in games that he may not be a big factor regardless if he plays.
The Pick
You probably should lock this one in early before any bad news about Geno’s health comes out and the spread moves even higher in favor of the 49ers. The Seahawks lost 21-13 at home to this team last year around this time, and it is hard to say the Seahawks are any better this week than they were going into that game.
Meanwhile, the 49ers look to have fixed their issues from the 3-game losing streak and are rolling again. This is a team that usually wins by a good number. Trust them to do it again on the road and establish the NFC West is still their division this year.
NFL Pick: 49ers -6.5 (-115) at Bovada
All We Wanted for Christmas Was Aaron Rodgers in This Game
The NFL’s first Black Friday game probably didn’t think it would have to hype up a matchup between the Jets and Dolphins without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. It’s not even going to be Zach Wilson as the Jets have benched him for Tim Boyle.
Before you think things couldn’t get any worse, think again. The Dolphins are a 10-point road favorite, which is quite a big number for a road team in a division game. The total is 39.5 points.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Friday, November 24, 2023 – 03:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Who Is Tim Boyle?
It’s not hindsight to say the Jets could have done other things at the quarterback position instead of relying on Zach Wilson this long. They could have traded for Joshua Dobbs, who looks much better with Minnesota. They could have called back Joe Flacco, who went to the Browns this week, and he was with the Jets last year for multiple starts.
But here we are. The Jets have 1 touchdown over the last 3 games and they are fading fast at 4-6. They cannot run the ball well either, which really hurts when you have no passing game to lean on as well.
This puts Tim Boyle in a tough spot. He is an undrafted quarterback who has been around since 2018 with the Packers, Lions, Bears, and now the Jets. He has thrown 120 passes in the regular season and has 3 touchdowns to 9 interceptions for a 50.9 passer rating. If there has been any positives to take away from his appearances, he has a ridiculously low sack rate of 1.6% in the NFL. That’s at least reassuring that he won’t take a bunch of losses by holding the ball.
Boyle is 0-3 as a starter after starting 3 games late in the year for the 2021 Lions. He lost the first 2 starts by a combined 7 points, then lost a 51-29 game in Seattle.
The Jets may have to rely even more on the defense this week, if that was possible.
Miami’s Offense Is Trending Down?
As for the Dolphins, they grinded out a 20-13 win over the Raiders and rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell last week. Few imagined that, but the Dolphins have not cracked 21 points in 3-of-4 games.
We have seen Miami struggle with top defenses this year, losing ugly to teams like the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles. The Jets do have a very sound defense, but it just has to hope the offense does not hurt them with turnovers and field position.
The Dolphins welcomed back running back De’Von Achane last week, but he left almost immediately with another injury. That element of the running game has been missing in his absence since he looked so explosive when they unleashed him in the 70-20 win over Denver.
But that 70-point game is looking like an outlier right now. The Dolphins have been mere mortals on offense as of late, but they still have a way better unit than the Jets do.
The Pick
While Tua Tagovailoa did not play in the game last year, the Dolphins actually lost 40-17 in New York under coach Mike McDaniel. They only won 11-6 against the Jets in Week 18, a game with both teams trotting out backup quarterbacks.
The spread feels like a trap in this one, so we will take the under 39.5 as the best bet for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Under 39.5 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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