NFL Top Pick: Kenny Pickett Over 199.5 Passing Yards (+110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 12 odds board still has plenty of leftovers after Thanksgiving with key matchups in Jaguars-Texans, Buccaneers-Colts, Bills-Eagles, and Ravens-Chargers. We also think Kenny Pickett might finally have a solid outing without Matt Canada calling the plays for Pittsburgh anymore.
We found a group of our favorite player props for Week 12, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has had a November to remember. He is 3-0 in the month and has thrown 8 touchdown passes. He is also producing at an elite volume with 387.3 passing yards per game, and with the running game also picking up in recent weeks with Devin Singletary, the Texans look like a complete offense with a diverse set of receivers to attack defenses with.
But Stroud has passed for over 330 yards in 3 straight games, and he has done this in wins that haven’t been garbage-time production. He is playing like a veteran in the MVP race.
Stroud has been even better at home this season, where he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all 5 of his home starts. His receivers are healthy going into this one and he’s already had a look at this Jacksonville defense in Week 3.
The Pick
Stroud has only thrown 4 touchdown passes on the road this year, but half of those plays came in the 37-17 win over Jacksonville. Stroud also had 280 yards in that game, so he didn’t just take advantage of short fields. He was able to consistently produce against this defense.
In a big game with 1st place in the AFC South on the line, look for Stroud to produce and have another game with multiple touchdown passes.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers)
- Over 199.5 Passing Yards
The Steelers made a very unorthodox move for the franchise when they fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada this week. “Blame Canada” and “Fire Canada” have been popular phrases going back to 2021 in Pittsburgh, so it was only a matter of time. The ugly 13-10 loss in Cleveland accelerated the move.
But this puts more pressure on Kenny Pickett to play well, as he no longer has the excuse of playing in Canada’s offense. It is hard to imagine promoting staffers to play callers is going to dramatically change things on the fly in late November, but maybe the Steelers will throw more to the middle of the field, throw deeper on play-action passes now that they are running the ball so well with Jaylen Warren, and maybe giving Pickett more freedom to call plays at the line in a 2-minute offense situation where he has looked his best in his career.
The Bengals have also allowed a fair amount of passing yardage in the last month with the last 5 opponents all going over 240 passing yards.
The Pick
It just so happens that in his only start against the Bengals last year, Pickett threw for 265 yards and led the Steelers to 30 points. That is the most points the team has scored in a game with Pickett, and his 265 yards are the 2nd most he’s had in any game in his career.
Pickett was over 220 passing yards in 5-of-6 games to start this year. He hasn’t surpassed 160 in the last month of games but look for him to shine in his first game without Canada. Of course, the standard is so low for Pickett that throwing for 200 yards and a touchdown would be shining, but we are talking about baby steps here.
NFL Pick: Kenny Pickett Over 199.5 Passing Yards (+110) at Bovada
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Last season, the Buccaneers were 25th in scoring and 32nd in rushing. In 2023, the Buccaneers are 23rd in scoring and 32nd in rushing, so some things have not changed in going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarterback.
But one player who has seemingly enjoyed the change is Mike Evans. He is producing 79.0 yards per game, which is his highest since 2019 before Brady arrived. Evans is also averaging 9.5 yards per target, the 3rd-highest season of his career and his highest since 2019.
- Evans also has 7 touchdown catches, or 1 more than he had all of last year. In fact, Evans’ touchdown props have been more reliable than his yardage props this year:
- Evans has scored a touchdown in 7-of-10 games this season
Evans has almost half of Baker’s touchdown passes (7-of-15) this year, so he is the go-to receiver on deep balls and even a little bit in the red zone, as Evans has hauled in 2 touchdowns from the 1-yard line in 2023.
The Pick
Games with the Colts have been sneaky high-scoring this year. They scored at least 20 points in every game before winning 10-6 against the Patriots in their last outing. The Colts have also allowed 4 teams to come into their building and score over 28 points this year. The Colts have also allowed 8 touchdowns of 20-plus yards this year.
We’ll go with Evans to add to his touchdown total with another one here.
NFL Pick: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150) at Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 5.5 Receptions
The injury to Dawson Knox has fully opened up Dalton Kincaid in this Buffalo offense. The rookie tight end is a weekly contributor and he has at least 5 catches in 5 straight games for the Bills.
Kincaid caught 6 passes for 46 yards last week against a tough Jets secondary, and that was the first game since the team fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. But with Stefon Diggs drawing double coverage, the lack of production from Gabe Davis, and the Knox injury, it is Kincaid who is Josh Allen’s 2nd-most reliable target right now.
Kincaid also has his biggest games in the last two road losses for the Bills. He caught 8 balls for 75 yards in New England and 10 balls for 81 yards in Cincinnati. Those were games where the Bills were playing from behind and had to catch up for most of the day.
This could be another one of those games with the 9-1 Eagles in Philadelphia. The Bills also could get into a shootout here, as Philadelphia’s defense is not as great as it was last year. Either way, there should be plenty of opportunities for Kincaid to rack up receptions.
The Pick
We just watched Travis Kelce rack up 7 receptions against the Eagles on Monday night. They weren’t very effective as he didn’t have 50 yards, but that is why we are betting on receptions instead of receiving yards. Look for Kincaid to log over 5.5 receptions for Allen in this one, as the Eagles look to take away Diggs with their great corners (Darius Slay and James Bradberry).
NFL Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 5.5 Receptions (-105) at Bovada
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Zay Flowers may only be a rookie, but this game is a huge chance for him to shine in prime time. He also may have a chip on his shoulder after the Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston, the receiver who dropped a game-winning play in Green Bay last week, with the No. 21 pick right ahead of Baltimore, which took Flowers at No. 22. Flowers is blowing Johnston’s production away this year.
The Ravens lost tight end Mark Andrews to a serious injury last week, but Flowers still leads the team in targets (72), catches (53), and receiving yards (588).
However, Flowers only has 1 touchdown this season. The Ravens have 8 skill players with at least 250 yards from scrimmage this year and Flowers is the only one who does not have multiple touchdown scores.
With Andrews out and Odell Beckham Jr. a little shaken up late in last week’s game, this is a great opportunity for Flowers to score his 2nd touchdown.
The Pick
The other reason to like Flowers is that the Chargers allow the most passing yards per game, and they especially give up big plays to wide receivers. Gus Edwards is the safer touchdown scorer pick for the Ravens, and Nelson Agholor on a deep ball is the risky, high-value play, but we think Flowers is the right call with the way he gets more opportunities than anyone in this offense to produce.
NFL Pick: Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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