Top NFL Pick: Packers ML (+150) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Just like last season, the Green Bay Packers are 3-6. But the difference is a lack of hope in the young offense now that Aaron Rodgers is not there. Maybe a home game with the Chargers is what Matt LaFleur’s team needs, because the Chargers just lost another 41-38 shootout with the Lions where they made Detroit look unstoppable at the run and the pass.
That’s the constant problem for Brandon Staley’s team as it wasted another great performance from quarterback Justin Herbert last week. The Chargers scored 5 touchdowns to end last week’s game and still never had a lead in the game once.
The Packers would love just to see 21 points on the board again as they have not done so in 7 straight games, their longest streak since 1990-91 when they went 10 games. The Chargers are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 44 points, reflecting the NFL betting odds.
At the top-rated sportsbooks, we think the Packers did some good things in Pittsburgh last week and could perk up even more offensively in this matchup with real upset potential.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Green Bay’s Scoring Drought
It was always going to be a struggle without Aaron Rodgers this year, but on the bright side, the Green Bay offense is not as bad as the Giants. Things could be worse, Cheeseheads.
The problem is not just Jordan Love’s lack of experience, but the wide receivers and tight ends are also one of the youngest, most inexperienced groups in the league, so Green Bay kind of brought this problem on itself after trading away Davante Adams and Rodgers the last 2 offseasons.
It would be one thing for Love to gain experience in a veteran offense, but he is learning on the fly with very young receivers and tight ends, which are positions known for taking some time to develop too.
The Packers haven’t topped 20 points since Week 2, but at least they have been in the 17-to-20 point range most games since. They had 19 points in Pittsburgh last week and it easily could have been more with a few better plays by the young receivers. Love’s interceptions came late in desperate situations, including one tipped ball in the end zone that was just a great veteran play by Patrick Peterson.
Love’s Varied Performance
Love only took 1 sack in Pittsburgh as he continues to have a very odd split this season where he takes 5 sacks on the road and 14 sacks in home games. That’s not all opponent based either as the Steelers have great rushers in T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
But Love’s yards per pass attempt the last 2 games has been at 8.8 against the Rams and 7.2 against the Steelers, his highest games since Week 1 in Chicago (9.1). This is encouraging news, and the Packers are still No. 8 on 3rd downs, and the young receivers (Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, and Dontayvion Wicks) all had big plays that gained over 30 yards in Pittsburgh.
Green Bay even scored 13 points by halftime, a huge improvement over the 5.0 points per half they were averaging to start games before Week 10. Considering Justin Herbert is 15-0 when the Chargers allow fewer than 20 points in his career, the Packers better end that scoring slump in this one.
Does that mean the Packers need to score 30? Not necessarily. Herbert is only 3-5 in his career when the Chargers allow in the range of 20-to-23 points.
The Struggling Defense of the Chargers
For a struggling offense, a home game against a bad defense can be the best thing to happen. Some are going to say the Chargers are capable of beating up a bad offense due to easy wins over the Bears (Tyson Bagent) and Jets (Zach Wilson) before last week, but at least the Packers have a smart offensive coach in LaFleur, and Love is more likely to throw for decent yardage and put up some points than those quarterbacks.
The Chargers allow 315.7 passing yards per game and they don’t cover wide receivers well, so this could be a big game for those young wideouts. They may even get Christian Watson on track as he has been holding the offense down this year.
But the Chargers have played on the road 4 times this season and they allowed at least 24 points in 3-of-4 starts, only shutting down the Jets on a Monday night game that was tough to watch all around. Even the Titans scored 27 points on this defense in Week 2.
The Chargers have allowed at least 27 points in 52.5% of Herbert’s starts in his career. This is why he is only 29-30 as a starter despite much better stats than that record would suggest.
Green Bay’s Defense Has Been Solid
Green Bay defensive coordinator Joe Barry is always under criticism, but the Packers have not been that bad this year. They rank No. 11 in both points and yards allowed. They haven’t faced many good passing games, but they have held 7-of-9 opponents under 200 net passing yards.
Stopping the run has been a bigger issue, but the Packers have held 3-of-4 opponents at home under 80 rushing yards this season. The Chargers are inconsistent with the run this year, and Austin Ekeler is usually a better receiving back than someone who gains his yards on the ground. In fact, Ekeler’s 42.4% rushing success rate this season is the lowest of his career.
The Packers do a good job of keeping plays in front of them as they force quarterbacks to throw their average pass 6.4 yards down the field, the shortest in the NFL this year. Green Bay’s defense has not allowed any touchdowns longer than 24 yards this season.
The Packers are slightly above average in pressure rate on the quarterback, and below average in sacks, so the plays are not finishing for losses, but they can get after Herbert. The Packers have allowed 8 touchdown passes, which only trails Baltimore (7) for the fewest allowed this year.
The Packers do not find themselves in this position often as home underdogs, and that is to be expected with Rodgers as the quarterback before this season. But LaFleur is 3-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career. Staley is only 5-6 ATS as a road favorite with the Chargers since 2021.
The Pick
The Packers have had their highest yardage totals of the season in the last 2 weeks with 399 and 391 yards, so they look to be moving in a better direction. The Chargers should help make things look better this week, and Green Bay should snap its streak of not scoring 21 points.
Will that be enough for a win? It’s the Chargers, so it should come down to the 4th quarter either way, because that’s what this team does. “Chargering” is their brand as they can turn any game that looks like a win into a loss.
Maybe this game can provide some Chargering in the form of turnover regression. The Chargers have a league-low 7 giveaways and still have a losing record on the season. The Chargers and Packers are tied with a few teams with a league-low 2 fumbles lost. But the Chargers have recovered a league-high 9 fumbles while the Packers have only recovered 3 fumbles. Maybe that turns around this week and Green Bay wins the loose ball battles.
Let’s go with some Chargering to help the Packers pull this one out at home for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Packers ML (+150) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
