NFL Pick: Vikings ML (+120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints both enter Week 10 with 5-4 records, but the Saints have division title aspirations while the Vikings have hope they will still be in the wild card mix after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8.
But Minnesota is surging after a 1-4 start with a 4-game winning streak. Joshua Dobbs will make his first start for the team after coming off the bench and winning the game in spectacular fashion in Atlanta. Despite not having practice reps or knowing his new teammates, Dobbs was able to lead the first game-winning drive of his career in a thrilling 31-28 win.
The Saints are a 2.5-point road favorite at top-rated sportsbooks and would love to get this win going into the bye week, but this should be another tough matchup. The Vikings prevailed in a 28-25 game against the Saints last season that saw numerous lead changes in the final quarter.
We think the Vikings have another close upset win left in them for this matchup.
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Joshua Dobbs: We’re Talking About Practice
The stories about how Joshua Dobbs was able to win Sunday’s game are the stuff of legends. The Vikings traded for Dobbs on Halloween but had no intentions to play him on Sunday after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. The plan was for Jaren Hall to start and Dobbs to be the emergency backup quarterback.
Well, Hall suffered a concussion late in the 1st quarter, and Dobbs was in the game with his new team. He did start every game for Arizona this season, so starting at quarterback on a Sunday was nothing new to him. But his teammates were brand new as he didn’t even know everyone’s names yet.
Dobbs also made it through the week without taking part in any live practices. He didn’t throw to any of his new receivers, and he didn’t take any practice snaps with his new center. The most incredible part is the way coach Kevin O’Connell had to explain the concepts of the play he just called to Dobbs through the radio communication headset during the game.
A Hopeful Sign for Minnesota
Dobbs is noted for his intelligence as an aerospace engineer, and he needed all of his brain power to quickly learn things on the fly Sunday. The good news is scrambling is a big part of Dobbs’ game, and he used that to perfection against the Falcons, rushing for a game-high 66 yards and a touchdown. His scramble on a 4th-and-7 was spectacular and saved the game for Minnesota.
Hopefully, with a week of practice as the starter, Dobbs will have a cleaner start to this game. He had a sack for a safety and a strip-sack in his early drives in Sunday’s game before he got the offense moving and scoring.
At least he’ll know everyone’s names this week. He also is playing in a better offensive system and with better weapons, even without Justin Jefferson (hamstring), than he had in Arizona.
Saints Slowing Down Defensively
Going back to the middle of 2022 and to start this season, you could argue the Saints were right up there with the 49ers for the best defense in the NFL. This is part of what attracted Derek Carr to come to New Orleans in that he’d finally have a great defense.
The Saints were riding an 11-game streak of not allowing more than 20 points, which had not been done in the NFL since the 2013-14 Seahawks nearly a full decade ago. But the Buccaneers ended that streak in Week 4 in a 26-9 loss for the Saints.
After getting back on track with a 34-0 shutout of the Patriots, the Saints have regressed to more of an average defense. Three of their 4 worst games on defense have been in the last month, including a 31-24 loss to the Jaguars, who are the only other team currently with a winning record that this team has played this year.
Saints’ Defense Faces Tough Test
The Saints were able to force 5 turnovers against the Bears last week, but most of those were in the 4th quarter with the Bears pressing behind rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent, who had over 200 yards and 2 touchdown passes in the first 3 quarters in a surprisingly good start.
We mentioned Dobbs likes to run, and quarterbacks have had some success with that against this defense. Bagent rushed for 70 yards and even Trevor Lawrence, on a bad leg, rushed for 59 yards to lead his team against this defense.
The Saints are still a good defense, but Dobbs has already faced the likes of the Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens this year. He has seen better defense than this.
Derek Carr Under Pressure
Derek Carr is a quarterback you need to pressure, because his play is going to decline significantly more than most quarterbacks when he is hurried like that. He does not extend plays well like other top quarterbacks in the game today.
Carr’s pressure rate is only 14.7% this season, the 3rd-lowest rate according to Pro Football Reference. After taking a lot of sacks early in the season, Carr has cut that down and has only taken 2 sacks over the last 3 games.
Not surprisingly, his offensive production has gone up the last 3 weeks, and the Saints have scored at least 24 points in each game after struggling to score 21 points earlier this season.
Facing a Revived Vikings Defense
But Carr’s connection with his receivers is still a work in progress. Chris Olave has not had a year as good as his rookie season last year with Andy Dalton primarily throwing him the ball. Michael Thomas just had a game against the Bears with 1 target and no catches.
The Vikings blitz more than any defense in the league at 51.3% according to Pro Football Reference. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores should not be afraid to go after Carr and speed up his decision making. The Vikings are only middle of the road in pressure rate, but they get more sacks than expected thanks to Danielle Hunter (10.0 sacks), and they have successfully forced quarterbacks to throw shorter passes against them to help the secondary keep things in front of them.
During this 4-game winning streak, the Vikings have forced 9 takeaways and have held 3-of-4 opponents to 17 points or fewer. Carr should be in for a tougher road test than if these teams met in September when the Vikings were playing worse on defense.
Can’t Trust the Kicker
We wanted to quickly point out that if this is a close game, then you have to give another edge to the Vikings in the kicking department. Usually, you’d never compliment the Vikings on clutch field goals, but Greg Joseph is reliable enough for them.
The problem is the new kicker for the Saints. Blake Grupe has attempted a league-high 23 field goals this year, and he has made 18 of them for a mediocre 78.3% field goal success rate.
But perhaps more telling are the big misses he’s already had in his brief career:
- Grupe missed a 46-yard field goal that would have given the Saints a late lead in Green Bay, and his miss ended the game in a loss.
- Grupe missed a 29-yard field goal in Houston while trailing 20-13 in the 4th quarter.
- Grupe missed a 47-yard field goal with 2:30 left to play against the Bears, keeping it a 24-17 game instead of giving the Saints a 10-point lead and all but guaranteeing victory.
This kicker may be lacking any clutch gene in his DNA.
The Pick
The Vikings have picked it up on defense, they know how to win the close ones under O’Connell, and Dobbs gives them a new dimension with his mobility. They have played more consistent football than the Saints over the last month, and they have the home crowd behind them after a 4-game winning streak.
The Saints have been one of the worst spread bets this year at 2-6-1 ATS. Coach Dennis Allen is 3-10-1 ATS as a favorite going back to last year, including 1-4-1 ATS as a road favorite. Take the Vikings to make it 5 wins in a row and upset the Saints.
NFL Pick: Vikings ML (+120) at Bovada
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