NFL Pick: Bills -7.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 10 schedule has another prime-time slate with the Buffalo Bills (5-4) as the main attraction when they host Denver on Monday night. But the week begins this Thursday night in Chicago with D.J. Moore hoping to have a huge game against his former team from Carolina. On Sunday night, the Jets and Raiders will meet in an old AFL rivalry.
We have our top NFL picks for each night of prime-time games in Week 10, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Are Denver and Buffalo Moving in Opposite Directions?
The Denver Broncos (3-5) return from their bye week after the best win of their season in ending the 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs with a 24-9 blowout. Now the Broncos are in Buffalo (5-4), a team that has fallen to the No. 8 seed despite still ranking in the top 5 on both sides of the ball.
The Bills are a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 47 points. Can the Bills save their season and get back on track with a big win?
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, November 13, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Buffalo’s Problems
It was not long ago when the Bills were 3-1 with a dominant run of wins by at least 28 points each. But the Week 5 trip to London to take on the Jaguars was costly as not only did the Bills lose the game, but they lost multiple defensive starters to injuries.
The Bills have been alternating wins and losses ever since, and the defense has forced 1 takeaway in the last 4 games. Meanwhile, turnovers are usually the main talking point with Josh Allen and the offense, and they have 9 giveaways since London.
It’s not like the Bills are getting crushed in any games. They lost 25-20 to Jacksonville, rallied for a late lead in New England before blowing it on the final drive, and made it a 24-18 game in Cincinnati before losing.
This is still a talented team, but it is not without its flaws, and the injuries can be exploited by the better offenses. The Broncos had a bye week to prepare for this one, but there are valid reasons for Buffalo to still be a considerable home favorite in this game.
Is Denver Any Good Yet?
Sean Payton had a lot to fix in Denver, and he has at least improved the offense from worst in the league to something halfway decent. But the defense was playing like one of the worst units of all time to start this season, and that too has improved ever since the 70-point debacle in Miami.
The improvements coincided with a shocking 24-9 win over the Chiefs in Week 8, but it is hard to say that game is a good sign that the days of Payton and Russell Wilson winning big games are back.
For starters, Wilson did not even have 100 net passing yards in that game, which is exactly what happened to him in Arrowhead when the Broncos lost 19-8 in Week 6. The difference this time was the turnovers. The Chiefs coughed it up 5 times while the Broncos only had 1 giveaway. Denver scored all 24 of its points on drives that started at the 50 or better. That is why Denver only had 240 yards of offense, its 2nd-lowest total this year.
Denver’s Offense
Denver’s offense is middle of the road at best:
- Denver ranks 15th in the red zone and 15th on 3rd downs.
- Wilson has thrown 16 touchdowns, but the Broncos have a league-low 1 rushing touchdown, so his touchdown numbers are inflated as the offense is only 16th in scoring overall.
- Wilson’s 6.9 yards per pass attempt would be the lowest season of his career and the first time under 7.0.
- Wilson’s 42.1% passing success rate would be the 2nd-lowest season of his career.
- Wilson’s 46.3 QBR ranks 21st in the NFL this year, and it would be the 2nd-lowest season of his career too.
- Wilson’s sack rate (10.0%) is the 3rd highest of his career and almost identical to last year (10.2%) in Denver.
Basically, if the Broncos ever start running in more touchdowns, and if Wilson starts substituting sacks in the cold weather on his older body for getting rid of the ball more, you’re going to see his completion percentage drop, his interceptions go up, and his touchdown pass rate go down.
This is a mediocre offense at best right now. Even more talented offenses like Jacksonville and Cincinnati were held to 24-25 points by this battered Buffalo defense, and Buffalo is still a tough place to play. It took one of the flukiest touchdown drives of the season for Tampa Bay to reach 18 points in Week 8.
The Pick
Buffalo has gone 5 straight games without winning a game by more than 6 points – the longest streak for the Bills by 2 games since the 2019 season. The sky is not falling on the Bills. The Broncos are still not a playoff-caliber team. Look for Buffalo to get things right and cover this spread at home with Allen outplaying Wilson to end Week 10.
NFL Pick: Bills -7.5 (-110) at Bovada
Jets vs. Raiders: First to 13 Points Wins?
It is hard to believe this game was not flexed out of Sunday Night Football. Subjecting the general public to watch these teams after seeing them lose in a pathetic fashion the last two Monday nights is not a strong selling point on this game for teams definitely on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff race.
The Jets opened as a 2.5-point road favorite but that is already moving down to 1.5 after how they looked on Monday night. The total is 37 points and that is what we are going to focus on for the under hitting.
New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
The Jets Should Punish Aidan O’Connell
While the Jets lost 27-6 to the Chargers on Monday night, it was not through any fault of the defense. Robert Saleh’s unit held Justin Herbert, one of the best in the game, to a career-low 136 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. The Chargers only had 191 yards of offense.
The Chargers scored 27 points thanks to a punt return touchdown and a late fumble that set up a 2-yard touchdown drive. Hopefully, the Jets will have their special teams and fumbling miscues cleaned up for this game.
While the Raiders scored a season-high 30 points against the Giants, let’s not forget this team couldn’t get to 20 points on offense in any other game this season. Making the changes with the coaching staff helped, and not turning the ball over was big, but let’s not act like the Raiders are fixed offensively after a game against the Giants.
New York can make veteran quarterbacks look bad, so this defense can certainly make Aidan O’Connell look like a rookie. In his first start, O’Connell took 7 sacks against the Chargers.
Josh Jacobs had a season-high 98 rushing yards against the Giants, but he still needed 26 carries to get there. His rushing effectiveness is down this year behind that line, and the Jets should contain him without many problems.
It would be surprising if the Raiders go to 20 points without return touchdowns or turnovers setting up very short fields.
Every Game Is a Grind with Zach Wilson
Halfway through the season, we can probably admit that the Jets with Aaron Rodgers would not have been a strong Super Bowl contender. They would be better than they have been because of the quarterback improvement, but there are still flaws with this team that were in view even on those 4 snaps that Rodgers played.
The offensive line isn’t good and that is part of the reason why Zach Wilson takes a lot of sacks and hits. The Chargers put him down 8 times on Monday night, and he even escaped a few more. The Raiders will be ready for him with Maxx Crosby’s relentless motor leading the way.
The Raiders do not have a good defense, but the Jets are a great matchup for them as they lack the line to punish them with Breece Hall on the ground, and Wilson isn’t consistently accurate enough to get his receivers the ball. They also drop more balls than they should.
The Jets have only scored more than 20 points twice this season, and in both games, they had return touchdowns and non-offensive scores like a safety. If you don’t help them with mistakes like that, you won’t have to worry about them putting up a big point total.
The Pick
This game will probably be close in the end if only because neither team should be able to score much. It hopefully will not be the punt fest that Giants-Jets was, but it could get ugly with these quarterbacks and the way the defenses will attack them.
Interim coach Antonio Pierce had the Raiders fired up for the first game after Josh McDaniels was fired, but we’ll chill on trusting this team to win the game and cover the spread at home. The New York defense is legitimate, and it is sadly being wasted by this offense again.
The under is the way to go for this one for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Under 37 (-110) at Bovada
Chicago and Carolina Meet Again with No. 1 Pick in Mind
The Carolina Panthers (1-7) traded for the No. 1 pick in the draft from the Chicago Bears (2-7) earlier this year so they could take quarterback Bryce Young. Now with the teams having 3 wins between them, they are in the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. This is not how things are supposed to work, but these teams are struggling again.
Justin Fields has a chance to return this week from a thumb injury, but either way, the Bears are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 40 points.
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Thursday, November 09, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Soldier Field
Panthers Flop vs. Colts
Clearly, Carolina’s first win in the Frank Reich-Bryce Young era was not a launching point for turning the season around. The Panthers flopped hard at home against Indianapolis on Sunday with Young throwing a pair of interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in a 27-13 loss.
The picks wasted a solid defensive effort where the Panthers held the Colts under 200 yards, shut down the run and the pass, and only allowed 13 points.
Young has to be much better, but right now, he is running for his life behind a bad line and not able to find receivers beyond slot master Adam Thielen, who also was shut down against the Colts in his weakest game since early September.
The problems with the line continue to lead to a weak running game as the Panthers rank 24th in rushing yards and 20th in yards per carry. Young was protecting the ball better until Sunday’s 3 interceptions. He has 3 games with season with multiple interceptions and 4 games with no interceptions, so he needs to get better with that.
The Panthers have been held to 17 points or fewer in 5-of-7 starts for Young. The only games where he scored 21 and 24 points, it happened in blowout losses to the Lions (42-24) and Dolphins (42-21). That also included a pick-6 by the defense in Miami to get to 21 points.
The Bears have played better defense after an awful 4 weeks to start the season. Chicago has only allowed 31 points total in its last 2 home games. The Bears can keep Carolina under 20 points on a short week.
Chicago: Familiar Story
Whether it’s Justin Fields or Tyson Bagent at quarterback, the Bears always seem to lose close games in the 4th quarter. Despite the defense giving Bagent numerous opportunities in a 24-17 game in New Orleans, the rookie had multiple turnovers in the final quarter.
It is hard to say Fields would have won that game because he has made the same mistakes in crunch time throughout his career. That is why coach Matt Eberflus is 1-13 in games where the Bears have the ball and a 1-score deficit in the 4th quarter in his career.
Since Fields’ thumb injury in Week 6, the Bears have been held to 17 points in 3-of-4 games. The Carolina scoring defense ranks 31st in points allowed but only 8th in yards allowed. This can happen when your offense turns the ball over 3 times for touchdown returns, but the Carolina defense is more respectable than the scoring numbers suggest.
Fields does not give the Bears a huge boost over Bagent, who also rushed for over 70 yards in New Orleans. Even if Fields returns this week, a shootout should not be expected between these struggling teams.
The Pick
There might be some buzz to take the over in thinking D.J. Moore is going to light up his former team after what he did the last time we saw the Bears on Thursday night when he had 230 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Commanders.
But that game looks like an anomaly for this offense, and the Carolina defense has only surrendered 13 points to its last 2 opponents, including C.J. Stroud and the Texans in Week 8. Long as Young doesn’t feel charitable to throw more interceptions for touchdowns in this game, we like the under to hit for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Under 40 (+100) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
