NFL Pick: Jets +2½ (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Nothing dominates the American prime-time TV ratings like NFL island games. When there is only one game on, millions will be watching. The NFL has an intriguing Week 1 lineup with the Lions taking on the Chiefs in Kansas City in the Thursday night opener, the Cowboys resuming their rivalry with the Giants on Sunday night, and Aaron Rodgers making his Jets debut at home on Monday night against the Bills.
We have our favorite NFL picks for the prime-time games in Week 1, which you can find at the top sportsbooks.
Buffalo Looks to Spoil Aaron Rodgers’ Debut in New York
In a good Monday night game to close Week 1, the New York Jets will host Buffalo in the debut game for Aaron Rodgers as he looks to bring a real passing game to the quarterback-starved Jets.
But the Bills are a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 46 points. Will the Jets prevail in the first crucial game for the AFC East this year?
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Monday, September 11, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
When Rodgers faced the Bills last year, it did not go well in a 27-17 loss with Green Bay. But he was also a few weeks removed from breaking his thumb, and he was throwing a 37-yard touchdown pass to someone named Samori Toure.
Rodgers has a much better team around him now, and he will be leaning on his defense a lot in this game. Jets coach Robert Saleh has faced Josh Allen and the Bills 4 times since 2021. His record is only 1-3, but if you look at the last 3 meetings, Allen has been held to 5.31, 6.03, and 5.44 yards per pass attempt, some of his weakest games in that time. Those numbers do not include the fact that Allen was sacked 8 times by the Jets last year as well.
Keeping No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs in check is key for the Jets. This is where having Sauce Gardner at corner should help. Gardner only allowed 35 yards on 7 targets in the matchups last year, which included a 20-17 upset win and a 20-12 loss where the Jets struggled to score.
Rodgers-Led Jets Seek Opening Night Upset
That is what Rodgers was brought here to do, and he has some advantages working in his favor to get off to a good start, including having the same offensive coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) he had in Green Bay when he won back-to-back MVP awards. He also came with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb at wide receiver. The Jets upgraded at running back by adding Dalvin Cook to help Breece Hall, who was injured before he could face the Bills in either game last year.
The Bills are facing a much-improved offense while the defense for the Jets should still be an elite unit that can keep Buffalo’s scoring down in this game to give Rodgers a chance to win it late.
The Jets have many tough games ahead of them in the coming weeks, but look for this one to go well as they upset the Bills and cover on opening night.
NFL Pick: Jets +2½ (-105) at Bovada
Bonus Pick: Wilson to Score
For a good player prop in this game, look for Garrett Wilson to start 2023 right by scoring a touchdown on the Bills. He was the target of Rodgers’ touchdown pass in the preseason when the pair got some work together, and he should lead the Jets in every receiving category this year after being named Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022.
Wilson was able to post a 100-yard receiving game with all 3 starting quarterbacks the Jets had last year. He had 78 and 92 yards in the games against Buffalo, but something he did not do well last year was score touchdowns. He had 4 scores, and they came in 2 games as he doubled up both days.
But that was an issue with the quarterback play. With Rodgers, he loves play-action deep in the red zone for those short touchdown passes, and Wilson should become his favorite target there like Davante Adams used to be in Green Bay.
NFL Pick: Garrett Wilson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140) at Bovada
Will the Cowboys Start Strong vs. the Giants?
The Cowboys are looking to reach their first NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season. The Giants just won their first playoff game since Super Bowl 46. But the Cowboys have owned the Giants in the Dak Prescott era, and this matchup is once again featured in front of a national audience after the Cowboys beat the Giants in New York on a Monday night game in Week 3, and they beat them again on Thanksgiving last year.
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 46 points at the NFL odds boards. We are focusing on the spread here.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
The nice thing about division games is we get extra data and more matchups from the recent past to use to predict what will happen in the next game. While results can vary wildly from game to game in the NFL, patterns and trends do tend to emerge, especially when teams keep some of the same critical pieces in place.
In the case of Cowboys vs. Giants, this has been a one-sided rivalry for some time now. It feels like a long time ago in 2016 when then-rookie Dak Prescott was swept by the Giants in an otherwise successful season for Dallas. But since then, Prescott is 10-0 vs. New York, including a win in 2020 in the game where he broke his ankle and the backups had his back.
The Cowboys also won in New York last year with Cooper Rush starting for an injured Dak in a game where they got their running game going with Tony Pollard (105) and Ezekiel Elliott (73) combining for 178 rushing yards. The Giants finished 27th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry (5.2) allowed last year.
Upgraded Offense
Elliott is gone, but the Cowboys have arguably upgraded the offense with Brandin Cooks adding more speed at wideout, Pollard taking over as the starting back, Deuce Vaughn looks intriguing as a small backup runner, and Michael Gallup should be closer to 100% after his major injury in 2021. The only potential downside is losing tight end Dalton Schultz to the Texans, though the Cowboys have young players ready to step up at that position (Jake Ferguson and rookie Luke Schoonmaker). The offensive line is also relatively healthy going into Week 1, which was not true last year.
The Cowboys faceplanted in Week 1 last season in a 19-3 loss to the Buccaneers, but this team looks stronger. Meanwhile, the Giants are hoping tight end Darren Waller and rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt can open the passing game more for explosive plays, but Daniel Jones was really limited as a game manager for Brian Daboll’s offense last year.
Week 1 Favorites
Prescott’s success against New York does mean Jones has struggled with Dallas, only averaging 6.4 yards per pass, and he has never thrown for 230 yards in any of the 6 starts. His 1-5 record against Dallas sees his only win coming in 2020 when Prescott was out with that broken ankle. Since then, Dallas has won the last 4 meetings, all by at least 7 points.
This can apply to our next game (Bills-Jets) too, but here is something worth pointing out with Dallas favored on the road against such a familiar opponent to start the season:
- Since 2009, road favorites in division games in Week 1 are 5-22 ATS (18.5%) and 9-16-2 SU (37.0%)
- In that same time, road favorites in non-division games in Week 1 are 32-21 ATS (60.4%) and 38-14-1 SU (72.6%)
Both records are outliers, but that 5-22 ATS record for division games is shockingly poor for favorites. This speaks to Week 1 uncertainty vs. division familiarity, but when you start looking at some of the games on the list, it was teams who ended up disappointing that season.
For example, the Colts with Matt Ryan were a 7-point favorite in Houston on opening day last year, but they needed a 17-point comeback in the 4th quarter just to get an overtime tie. The Colts finished 4-12-1 and lost again to Houston in Week 18. Likewise, Urban Meyer and the Jaguars were favored in the 2021 opener against Houston but lost that game with ease. Meyer proved to be one of the worst hirings of all time.
Cowboys Expected to Dominate
With this matchup, the Cowboys are at worst considered the No. 3 team in the NFC behind the Eagles and 49ers. They would be favored to win most divisions in the NFL this year, but they have to deal with the Eagles. The Giants are no better than No. 3 in the division, and their over/under win total is just 7.5 wins as the Giants finished 3-6-1 last year after a 6-1 start built on razor-thin winning margins.
Dallas should be considerably better than the Giants this year, which has not often been the case in these historic matchups in Week 1. Also, the spread is only 3.5, so it is not like the Cowboys have to win by a touchdown or more on the road here.
- For the Giants, 7-of-8 losses last year were by 6-plus points.
- For the Cowboys, 12-of-13 wins last year (12 straight) were by 4-plus points.
We’ll save our home team upset in a division game for Monday night. Trust the Cowboys to cover as Dak improves to 11-0 against the Giants since 2017.
NFL Pick: Cowboys -3½ (-105) at Bovada
Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff Meet in 54-51 Rematch
The 2023 NFL season begins Thursday night with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions. The last time Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff faced off in prime time, it was a historic 54-51 game between the Rams and Chiefs in 2018. Goff even came out on top in the only game in NFL history where the losing team reached 50 points.
The Chiefs are a 5-point favorite, a line that has dropped from 6.5 due to the very real possibility they are without 2 of their best players in leading receiver Travis Kelce (knee) and All-Pro pass rusher Chris Jones (holdout). But our eyes are on the over/under 52.5 for the total in this one.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, September 7, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
This should not be a repeat of 54-51, but the Lions did play a 48-45 game against Seattle last year, and Mahomes is no stranger to a shootout. But over 52.5 is still a very likeable number here for many reasons even if Travis Kelce is out for the Chiefs:
- Detroit spent much of 2022 as the bottom-ranked scoring defense; it finished 32nd in yards allowed, and the new additions look like lateral movements at best.
- In season openers under coach Dan Campbell, the Lions lost at home 38-35 to the Eagles (2022) and 41-33 to the 49ers (2021), who were both elite opponents.
- Here are the combined points scored in the 5 season openers with Mahomes at quarterback since 2018 for the Chiefs: 66, 66, 54, 62, and 63.
- Since 2018, the Lions (316) and Chiefs (313) are the only teams to have over 300 combined points in their season openers.
That last stat is true back to 2015, so these teams are very used to lighting up the scoreboard in openers.
The Lions were a legitimately strong offense last year, ranked No. 5 in scoring, No. 4 in yards, No. 4 in the red zone, and they had a league-low 15 giveaways. Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Chiefs were not great on defense, ranked 21st in points per drive allowed, and they were next to last at allowing touchdowns in the red zone.
Now if you subtract Chris Jones from the pass rush, that only strengthens the argument for a higher-scoring game. Mahomes is 55-3 when the Chiefs allow fewer than 27 points, so opponents come in knowing they need a big number to win the game.
Can Gray Hold Down the Fort?
For one game, tight end Noah Gray can do his best Kelce impersonation. Gray caught 28-of-34 passes for 299 yards last year. Since it is Week 1, we know wide receiver Kadarius Toney will be healthy for at least a few snaps too as he can be a weapon in the red zone without Kelce. The Chiefs should be fine.
It may be the Chiefs without a couple of their very best players, but it’s still Mahomes and Andy Reid. Take the over. Enjoy the game. Football is back.
NFL Pick: Over 52½ (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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