NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The AFC rivalry continues but this time the Buffalo Bills get to host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round this Sunday evening in what could be another instant classic.
The last time these teams met in the playoffs was 2 years ago in this round when they scored 31 points after the 2-minute warning in a 42-36 overtime classic that changed the playoff rules for overtime.
Since that game, the Bills have won the last 2 meetings in Arrowhead, including this year’s wild finish when the Chiefs were called offsides on what looked like a go-ahead touchdown after Travis Kelce made a lateral to Kadarius Toney. The Bills held and won 20-17.
That moment could be the defining one of this season should the Bills, who were in desperation mode at 6-6, go on to keep winning all the way through the Super Bowl. But before they can think about that, they have to take care of business at home against the defending champions who are trying to end the longest drought without a repeat champion in NFL history.
The Bills are a 3-point home favorite at the main offshore sportsbooks. A lot of attention has been drawn to this being the 1st time Mahomes will have to play a road playoff game, but that may not be the issue this week.
Let’s dive into the NFL odds and see why the Chiefs are the best upset pick in this divisional round.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 21, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Quick Note on the Weather
Before we get into the cool stuff, let’s make a quick note about the weather since Buffalo can be extreme. There is a warning of lake-effect snow again on Sunday. We’ll just assume the Bills and NFL will do the right thing and move the game if they have to so that it’s not played in absurd conditions.
But both teams just played in some extreme weather with the Chiefs winning the 4th-coldest game in history against the Dolphins. Also, it’s not like Buffalo isn’t used to very cold and windy weather.
But that is our last note about the weather. Let’s just hope for clear skies and minimal wind.
Is Patrick Mahomes Better on the Road?
With a lot of skill and some luck on his side, Patrick Mahomes has never had to play a true road playoff game in his career. He has made 12 playoff starts at Kansas City where he is 10-2. He has also started 3 Super Bowls on neutral fields – 2020 deserving an asterisk since Tampa Bay was in its home stadium.
Everything changes this week when the No. 3 Chiefs head to Buffalo to take on the No. 2 Bills.
This has been a big storyline this week. Although, if you know Mahomes’ history well, you might expect him to be just fine this Sunday.
It sounds crazy at first, but there is a statistical argument that Mahomes is a better quarterback on the road than he is at home. This has been true for virtually every season of his career since 2018.
- Mahomes at home in his career (playoffs included): 65.5% complete, 7.6 YPA, 101.9 passer rating, 7.52 ANY/A, 4.35% sack rate, and 52.0% passing success rate.
- Mahomes on the road in his career (playoffs included): 68.0% complete, 8.3 YPA, 107.6 passer rating, 8.19 ANY/A, 3.72% sack rate, and 53.7% passing success rate.
On the road, Mahomes raises his completion percentage by 2.5 points, his yards per attempt by 0.7 yards, and his passer rating by 5.7 points. He even takes fewer sacks, and his passing success rate jumps another 1.7 percentage points.
Yeah, this is not the norm for most quarterbacks, especially first-ballot Hall of Fame types. Look at the advantages these quarterbacks enjoyed at home compared to the road in their long careers (regular season only):
- Drew Brees’ home passer rating was 10.3 points higher and his yards per attempt was +0.63 better at home.
- Aaron Rodgers’ home passer rating was 9.3 points higher and his yards per attempt was +0.35 better at home.
- Peyton Manning’s home passer rating was 6.5 points higher and his yards per attempt was +0.29 better at home.
- Tom Brady only threw 68 more passes on the road than he did at home in his career. Although Brady had 32 more interceptions on the road.
The boosts those quarterbacks had at home are similar to the boost Mahomes sees on the road. He really might have been built differently.
Road Focus vs. Home Complacency
If you take Mahomes’ 6 seasons as a starter (2018-23) and split them by home and road (regular season only) and treat them as 12 seasons, here is where they stand:
- Mahomes’ top 5 seasons in completion percentage are all road seasons. His bottom 4 seasons in completion percentage are all home seasons.
- Mahomes’ top 6 seasons in passing yards per game are all road seasons. His bottom 6 seasons are all the home seasons.
- Mahomes’ top 4 seasons in passer rating are all road seasons.
More Road Stats:
- Mahomes is 11-8 (.579) in road games against teams that made the playoffs that year.
- Mahomes has more road games (10) with 4 touchdown passes than he does at home (9).
- Both of Mahomes’ games with 6 touchdown passes in 2018 happened on the road.
- Of the 24 times Mahomes has thrown for over 340 yards in the regular season, 17 of those games (70.8%) have been on the road.
- Even this season, Mahomes is completing 69.7% of his passes and averaging 7.25 yards per attempt on the road compared to 65.3% and 6.83 yards per attempt at home.
- The only thing Mahomes has done better at home this year is throw more touchdowns and fewer interceptions, but the Chiefs are still 5-2 on the road with him compared to 5-4 at home. Make that 6-2 on the road if you count the neutral field game in Germany against the Dolphins.
Mahomes may be just fine on the road this week. Maybe he treats road games as pure business trips and has a sharper focus. At home, you can get complacent, and you can feel pressured to entertain the home crowd with highlight-worthy plays instead of effective ones. Some of Mahomes’ worst games of scrambling around for an eternity have been at home. For example, the Christmas loss to the Raiders, the ugliest regular-season loss of his career.
The concern is not about Mahomes on the road. The concern should be this 2023 offense that leads the league in dropped passes and had devastating mistakes that cost them late in close losses against the Lions, Eagles, Packers, and Bills.
That is why the Chiefs are only a No. 3 seed and on the road this year.
Mahomes Is the Best Underdog
The Bills are a 3-point favorite. This is only the 11th time that Mahomes will be an underdog in his NFL career. So far, he has been incredible in these games.
Mahomes is 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in the NFL.
But the only team to hand Mahomes a loss against the spread was Buffalo in 2022. The Bills won 24-20 in a game Kansas City was a 2.5-point home underdog.
Road playoff underdog is certainly a new role for Mahomes and these Chiefs this week. If anyone can pull it off, it’s him.
Kansas City’s Defense Is Legitimate
Usually when these teams have met, the Bills had the better defense. That is really not the case this year as the Chiefs allowed the 2nd-fewest points in the NFL. The Packers (27) and Broncos (24) are the only teams to score more than 21 points against the Chiefs. Denver needed 5 turnovers and incredible field position to produce that mirage of a score.
While 2022 was more of a Chris Jones effort as the Chiefs surrounded him with rookies, those young players have improved this year. L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have been very good at corner, and George Karlaftis has 10.5 sacks in his 2nd season.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has his share of bad starts to games. But he usually figures it out and keeps the score down after 60 minutes.
The defense has been a great help to the struggling offense this year. The Bills had their share of struggles against the Chiefs in Week 14. The good news was they had just 1 turnover. But we know the Bills can be charitable in that department, and if the Chiefs can win the turnover battle for a change, that may be plenty enough to get over the hump here.
Also, keep in mind that while the Bills have done an admirable job defensively all year despite injuries, they suffered more of them to the defense against Pittsburgh. It is unclear if breakout linebacker Terrel Bernard will play after being carted off last week with an ankle injury.
With the way these defenses are playing, this could be another game where the first to 20 points wins.
The Return of Isiah Pacheco
When these teams met in Week 14, Isiah Pacheco was out with an injury. The Chiefs relied on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had 11 carries for 39 yards. The running backs usually haven’t been a big deal in this rivalry, but should the Chiefs want to utilize more of a ground attack, they’ll have their best runner available this time.
Pacheco had 89 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in the wild card round. But the Bills did a respectable job against Pittsburgh’s running backs last week, who came in strong before that game.
What’s the Deal with Stefon Diggs?
Trying to figure out which skill players will be significant in this game is interesting since it has changed so much in their past meetings.
We at least think the Chiefs seemed to have wised up. They are running their offense mostly through their best players now. That means more targets and touches for Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco. Hopefully, this also means very few opportunities for players like Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney.
But with the Bills, their usage has been all over the map since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator in November. Stefon Diggs went from having another prolific season to barely averaging 40 yards per game down the stretch.
Gabe Davis had that massive 201-yard game with 4 touchdowns against the Chiefs in the playoffs 2 years ago. Davis had 0 catches in Kansas City in Week 14, something that’s happened 5 times this season.
Davis missed last week with an injury and is considered day-to-day. Can he step up again as the Chiefs look to lock down Diggs with corner L’Jarius Sneed? Diggs had a season-low 24 yards in Kansas City in Week 14.
It just feels like a lower-scoring game where it will be hard for anyone to dominate offensively.
Special Teams: Edge at Kicker?
We rarely talk about special teams in big games. But Buffalo’s injured punter situation could be one to monitor for this game. Some bad shanks or a potential block could be huge in a game like this for field position.
But if it comes down to a field goal, you have to figure Harrison Butker gives the Chiefs an edge over Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass. Butker is 33-of-35 this year and has been money on clutch field goals, especially in the postseason.
Is This Game 7 Already?
Look, this series is tied 3-3 since 2020.
The Chiefs had a convincing win in the 2020 AFC Championship Game (38-24). The Bills answered with their own rout in 2021 (38-20, Mahomes’ largest margin of defeat at home in his career).
But the other 4 games? They all could have gone either way, including the only game played in Buffalo back in 2020. What decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC that year? Mahomes converted a 3rd-and-12 with an improv play for a big gain while the Chiefs led 23-17 late. Without that, maybe Allen and the Bills drive for a winning touchdown.
The playoff game with 13 seconds left? We know Buffalo botched that kickoff and defensive series badly or else it could be 4 wins in a row against the Chiefs.
The last 2 years, Mahomes has had the ball in his hands late and Buffalo’s defense delivered (with some help from a boneheaded wideout lining up offsides this year to negate his only impressive play on the lateral).
The point is things are usually going to be close in the end, and the team that makes the last stop or avoids the last big mistake will get the win.
The Pick
More than ever this season, these teams are very similar:
- They both can rely on their quarterback to carry the offense.
- They do trust Pacheco and Cook more than they usually trust their lead running back.
- Kelce and Diggs have slowed down this year as the No. 1 targets while rookies (Rashee Rice and Dalton Kincaid) have stepped up.
- The defenses are great and championship-caliber.
- They’re both only 11-6 because they love to beat themselves with dropped passes, turnovers, and penalties.
This probably is not going to have a 42-36 ending this time. It will be more like these last 2 years when it ended 24-20 and 20-17.
Frankly, this should be Buffalo’s year to win it at home and take advantage of the flaws the Chiefs have at receiver. Maybe that’s exactly what happens. A carbon copy of the 2006 AFC Championship (Patriots at Colts, Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning) where the Bills have to come back at home to finally slay this dragon, sending the Chiefs on a wide receiver shopping spree this offseason. Not sure if Randy Moss is out there, though.
But when you look at the divisional round schedule and see 10-point spreads with the No. 1 seeds and the Buccaneers going to Detroit, are you going to trust anyone else to win outright as an underdog other than Mahomes this week?
If Baltimore is upset on Saturday by Houston and the Chiefs know they can host another AFC Championship Game with a win here, look out. We might actually see a repeat after all.
Just keep Toney lined up where he’s at his best: on the bench.
NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+130) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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