Top NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+160) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Kansas City Chiefs are back in their 6th straight AFC Championship Game. This time they are the underdogs in Baltimore.
The Chiefs just won as a 2.5-point underdog in Buffalo. It was the 1st road playoff win for the team in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Last season was Mahomes’ greatest achievement so far in leading the Chiefs to their 2nd Super Bowl title. All of that despite the loss of Tyreek Hill and the burden of a meandering defense. But getting it done this year as a road underdog after a challenging regular season could exceed it.
Mahomes comes into this game with his best defense. However, he will be facing arguably the best defense he’s seen in his NFL career in Baltimore. The Ravens have been crushing top competition at a rate rarely seen this season. Lamar Jackson is also likely going to match Mahomes with a 2nd MVP award for this season.
But the Chiefs are still the standard for teams to measure themselves against. The reason this hasn’t been a real rivalry yet is that the Ravens haven’t been able to meet them in a big playoff game like this one. That changes this week.
With our NFL odds in hand, the Ravens are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 44.5 points being offered at our top-rated sportsbooks. We look at the reasons why the Chiefs are the best upset pick for Championship Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Patrick Mahomes vs. Elite Defenses
The 2023 Ravens are the 1st defense since the 1970 merger to lead the NFL in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways. It is hard to believe no other defense has pulled off that combo, including some stout Baltimore defenses in 2000, 2006, and 2008.
But if this Baltimore defense wants to go down as a historic unit, it must continue performing in the postseason.
Last season, the Eagles were famous for having 70 sacks in the regular season. However, no one thinks of them as a historic defense. Why? Because they were picked apart by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, losing 38-35.
Playoff Prowess
Historic defenses cement their legacy in the playoffs.
We have seen it with the 1985 Bears, 1986 Giants, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2008 Steelers, 2013 Seahawks, and 2015 Broncos.
There have not been many elite defenses since Mahomes and Jackson became starters in 2018. Even though, Mahomes has been nothing short of incredible against the best statistical defenses he has faced in his career.
- Mahomes is 12-2 against defenses that rank in the top 5 in points allowed per drive. A stat where Baltimore is No. 1 this season.
- In those 14 games, Mahomes averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 316.1 passing yards per game, and the Chiefs averaged 28.5 points per game.
- Mahomes scored 42 points in the playoffs against Buffalo’s No. 1 defense in 2021 and 44 points in the regular season against San Francisco’s No. 1 defense in 2022.
- The only top 5 defense to hold Mahomes under 20 points was the 2021 Cowboys, who lost 19-9 in Kansas City.
- Mahomes’ only 2 losses to elite defenses were at home against the 2021 Bills (38-20) and 2022 Bills (24-20) in regular season games.
- Mahomes is 7-0 against elite scoring defenses in games played away from Kansas City.
- Mahomes is 6-2 against teams that have allowed fewer than 300 points in a season. He scored at least 20 points in every game.
Chiefs’ Confidence
Mahomes does not have his most efficient stats against top 5 defenses (27 TD, 16 INT in 14 games). However, his high production of yards, big plays, points, and wins against the best of the best is unmatched by anyone.
That sample of games also includes Mahomes’ first 3 matchups against the Ravens in 2018-20. He shredded Baltimore with 377, 374, and 385 passing yards. The Chiefs scored 27, 33, and 34 points in those wins. He also led the Chiefs to 35 points in Baltimore in 2021 in the most recent matchup. This was a game the Chiefs were on track to win until Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled in field goal range late in the game.
The Ravens have a great defense this year. They have a new coordinator (Mike Macdonald) who was only coaching the linebackers back in 2018-20. But the Chiefs will not be intimidated by this unit.
Their history against top defenses suggests they appreciate these games as challenges to show how great they can be.
Chiefs: Not Your Typical Underdog
The Ravens earned the No. 1 seed this year and the right to host this game.
This is the 1st time the Chiefs will not host the AFC Championship Game since the 2017 season.
But that incredible streak is why the Chiefs cannot be taken lightly or as a typical underdog this week. Sure, road underdogs of 3-or-4 points in the Conference Championship Game are only 10-16 SU (38.5%) since 1970.
But the Chiefs with Mahomes as an underdog are 8-3 SU (72.7%) and 9-1-1 ATS after last week’s win in Buffalo. This team is hard to knock out.
Fear Factor
The Ravens this year are 7-3 and winning by an average of almost 14 points in the 10 games they have played against fellow playoff teams. Those are very impressive marks. The Ravens have already comfortably defeated the remaining NFC teams. They crushed Detroit 38-6 in Baltimore and won 33-19 against the 49ers in San Francisco.
Last week, the Ravens crushed Houston 34-10 despite not registering any sacks or turnovers against C.J. Stroud’s offense. We talk about the Chiefs shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers and drops. However, the Texans just scored 3 points on offense without any splash plays by that Baltimore defense.
That is scary.
The Chiefs are still a scary team. Especially with the game on the line as Buffalo learned the hard way again. The Ravens are not used to winning the close ones. This year, they are 3-4 in close games: they have more blown leads (3) than they have game-winning drives (0). Baltimore’s only win that produced the winning points in the 4th quarter or overtime was the punt return touchdown in overtime against the Rams in Week 14.
But Baltimore’s game against the Rams should be a blueprint for the Chiefs this week.
Matthew Stafford was able to throw for 294 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. He got 114 rushing yards out of Kyren Williams. Cooper Kupp (115 yards and a touchdown) and Puka Nacua (84 yards) both produced at receiver. That was a healthy Baltimore defense too with Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, etc. all in action that day.
Comeback Ability
Stafford is the closest quarterback to Mahomes that the Ravens have faced all year. They needed a late score to force overtime and a punt return touchdown to win it after giving up 31 points.
If we are just being honest, the Ravens have feasted this year on the Texans, 49ers, and Dolphins. Those teams fall under the Kyle Shanahan offensive scheme where play-action is king. Those quarterbacks are expecting easy completions to open receivers. Jared Goff can be accused of this at times too with Detroit, another team the Ravens smoked.
It is also worth pointing out how limited the Texans were at wide receiver in the playoffs. A big shortcoming since Stroud is the only quarterback in that Shanahan tree who is willing to work out of structure and create plays for his receivers. Also, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert were both out in Week 17 for Miami, and the 49ers moved the ball at a high yards-per-gain average. They just had 4 interceptions on tipped and deflected balls.
Unlike those front-running teams like the 49ers and Dolphins, the Chiefs can come back if they get behind double digits.
But Stafford is really the only gunslinger with off-platform throws and the ability to play from shotgun and attack a defense the way Mahomes can that Baltimore has seen all year. Unlike the Rams, the Chiefs have a Super Bowl-caliber defense too.
Lamar Jackson Facing the Best Kansas City Defense
We think Mahomes is facing the best Baltimore defense this week.
We know Lamar Jackson is going to see the best Kansas City defense he’s ever faced. Not to mention the past games have not gone well for him.
Jackson is 1-3 against the Chiefs, completing 56.2% of his passes, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3 rushing touchdowns, 2 lost fumbles, and a 78.9 passer rating. Jackson averages more yards per run (6.45) than he does yards per pass (6.20) against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs only allowed 14 more points this season than the Ravens did, and they were No. 2 in yards allowed. The Ravens allowed the fewest points of any team in the 1st half of games (119), but the Chiefs tend to make the best adjustments behind coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and they allowed a league-low 126 points after halftime this year.
Avoiding Pitfalls
The Chiefs blitz at an above-average rate and have been successful with it this year. The Ravens struggled with Houston’s high blitz rate last week for a half, which was unexpected. The Ravens had more sacks than the Chiefs this year, but you could argue the Chiefs have the more effective pass rush based on overall pressure rate:
- The Ravens led the NFL with 60 sacks, but they faced 634 pass attempts, and their pressure rate was only 19.5% (No. 23).
- The Chiefs were 2nd with 57 sacks, but they faced 556 pass attempts, and their pressure rate was 27.8%, the 2nd-highest rate in the league this year.
Kansas City may not always start games well on defense. However, you can usually count on the defense to step up late. This sets up well against a Baltimore team that has a recent history with blown leads. They blew 7 multi-possession leads since the start of the 2022 season.
If the Ravens start slowly like they did against Houston, that could be trouble against a team with Mahomes and a defense that adjusts. If the Ravens get into a shootout, the Chiefs will probably feel fine in that scenario too. The game script they want to avoid is Baltimore dropping haymakers early and the Chiefs allowing the deficit to snowball with turnovers and mistakes that give the Ravens short fields.
Keep this game close and the Chiefs should have the edge.
Ravens Have Tucker, Chiefs Have Butker
In case you missed it, special teams were pretty important in the divisional round. Every losing team missed a field goal, and some misses hurt more than others. We pointed out that the Chiefs were in better shape on a clutch field goal with Harrison Butker than the Bills were with Tyler Bass. That proved to be true.
Bass was wide right on a 44-yard field goal to tie the game late, adding to Buffalo’s long line of postseason misery stemming from special teams.
The Ravens have the best in the business in Justin Tucker, so you can give them the edge there this week. But the Chiefs have every right to trust Butker if the game comes down to his leg. He has proven himself in these moments. These are the best kickers left in the postseason.
The Pick
The Ravens have the No. 1 seed, the likely MVP in Lamar Jackson, home-field advantage, a top-ranked defense, and a top-ranked running game.
The same things were true in 2019 when we thought we were going to see this matchup in the AFC Championship Game that year. But the Ravens were upset by the Titans, and the Chiefs ended up going on to win the Super Bowl that year.
The Chiefs lost and won another Super Bowl before the Ravens even won a 2nd playoff game under Jackson. This was supposed to be a rivalry years ago, but we’ve had to wait years to see this matchup in the playoffs.
Now that it’s here, we no longer have a case of Mahomes needing to throw for 370 yards and score 35 points in this game. The Ravens run the ball better than anyone but a lot of that is Jackson himself. The backs are not as impressive as they’ve had before. Meanwhile, the Chiefs trust Isiah Pacheco, who will run every carry like it’s his last breath on Earth.
Critical Factors
The Baltimore defense is great. However, the Chiefs have closed that gap and have their own defense that can contain this Baltimore offense led by a rookie wideout (Zay Flowers), a backup tight end (Isaiah Likely), a possibly rusty tight end just coming back from injury (Mark Andrews), and an aging veteran who had 1 catch last week (Odell Beckham Jr.). The Chiefs can hold this offense under 28 points like they have every other opponent this year.
It comes down to what it’s come down to every week for the Chiefs this year. Can you stop turning the ball over in the most ridiculous ways like dropping a sure catch into a pick-6? Could you please stop giving Mecole Hardman the ball? Can you line up properly and not false start a bunch of times on the road? Could you not wipe out a go-ahead touchdown with a holding penalty? Or could you not drop the game-winning touchdown cause your name is Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
If the Chiefs protect the ball, they can definitely win this game no matter where it’s played. Besides, any team that loses to Gardner Minshew, Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett like Baltimore did can lose to Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and an elite defense.
That’s just common sense in the NFL.
NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+160) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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