Top NFL Picks
- Ravens -3 (-133 Buying the Hook) for 5 units at Heritage Sports
- Ravens ML (-185) for 5 Units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger swung for the fences last week with a rare 5-unit ATS MAX PLAY. He connected when the Lions covered the number against the Bucs.
Let’s check out what NLF odds Swinger has up his sleeve for the conference championships and see if a sweep at the top-rated sportsbooks is in our future!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 30-30-1 ATS (-9.24 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Divisional Round Recap
After two consecutive weeks of sweeps, we fell back to earth with a 1-2 ATS mark in the divisional round.
The bad news included a 2-unit wager on the Texans +9 and a 3-unit bet on over 50 ½ in the Packers/49ers affair. We were only laying -108 in both thanks to the small vig over at Heritage Sports, but we still dropped 5.4 units on those horse bleep plays.
However, we found solace in our 5-unit max bet on the Lions -6 ½ that was a bit too close for comfort when the Bucs attempted a two-point conversion that fortunately failed and we wound up covering in Detroit’s 31-23 victory.
And so, it was a “kiss your sister” kind of week as we merely lost the short vig but now we move on with time dwindling for us to bail out of the red and into the black, currently down over 9 units on the season.
Let’s make this week a good one, shall we?
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Key Stats
- Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Baltimore is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
- Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against an AFC West opponent.
This is the matchup I’ve been waiting for and I’m going to make it count.
Statistically, these were the two best defenses during the regular season. The Ravens are allowing 16.5 points per game, while the Chiefs surrendered 17.3 points per game.
Both run-stop units were in the middle of the pack with the Ravens giving up 109.4 yards per contest. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 113.2 yards per game. Both pass defenses shine. The Chiefs are ranked 4th (176.5 passing yards allowed per game) and the Ravens checking in at 6th (191.9 passing yards allowed per game).
Okay, so Baltimore has a slight edge on that side of the ball, but what about the offense? Let’s put it in a list so it’s’ easy to compare.
- Points Per Game: Ravens No. 4 (28.4 PPG) vs. Chiefs No. 15 (21.8 PPG)
- Passing Yards Per Game: Chiefs No. 6 (246.4 PYG) vs. Ravens No. 21 (213.8 PYG)
- Rushing Yards Per Game: Ravens No. 1 (156.5 RYG) vs. Chiefs No. 19 (104.9 YPG)
So, here’s what we know.
The Chiefs throw the ball early and often because they can’t run it. But consider for a moment that Patrick Mahomes had a completion rate of 67.2% with 27 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 389 rushing yards, and zero rushing touchdowns with a 92.6 passer rating in the regular season.
Lamar Jackson also had a 67.2% completion rate along with 24 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 821 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns with a 102.7 passer rating.
Both are elite quarterbacks. However, Mahomes has had to throw much more often without a stout rushing attack to rely on. Meanwhile, Jackson can be more judicious when he passes and is an integral part of the Ravens’ top-ranked rushing attack.
But Jackson has one thing that Mahomes doesn’t – an outstanding offensive line, universally ranked 1, 2, or 3 depending on who you ask.
This is critical because the Chiefs’ offensive line is pedestrian at best but their best blocker, left guard Joe Thuney, may not even play after suffering a pectoral injury last week.
The Ravens delivered 60 sacks this season, tops in the NFL. They will be after Mahomes from the opening kick off to the final gun. This is going to be an ass kicking and the Ravens are the boot. If Baltimore’s tight end extraordinaire, Mark Andrews, makes his return, then they’ll use both feet.
And as much confidence as I have in the Ravens winning this by double digits, I refuse to lose a cover by half a point, which is why I always buy the hook on key numbers, especially three. I would rather lose the additional vig in an outright blown cover than lose the bet by a hook.
I am also betting the Ravens on the money line for all I can eat.
One game, two MAX bets, let’s go get this!
NFL Pick: Ravens -3 (-133 Buying the Hook) for 5 units at Heritage Sports
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Key Stats
- Detroit is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
- San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
- San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
I realize Brock Purdy had to contend with rainy weather last week but he didn’t fare well under those circumstances despite his team’s 24-21 victory over the Packers. And while the forecast for Levi’s Stadium this Sunday appears to be mild and dry, I’m not sure Purdy, nor his frontline bodyguards, will be able to withstand the heat they’ll be getting from the Lions’ ferocious pass rush.
However, Jared Goff will be up against the 49ers dominating pass rush so all things would be about even, right?
Well, no, because Goff has arguably the best offensive line in the league protecting him with the top-graded center, Frank Ragnow, and the immaculate right tackle, Penei Sewell as anchors. San Francisco’s offensive line is middling at best.
The 49ers laying seven is just too much. I loved the Lions last week as a 5-unit maximum play against the Bucs and I like them to hang within the margins against the Niners this week.
NFL Pick: Lions +7 (-105) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (9-11 ATS)
Oh, how close I was to joining the Woodman with a wager on the Packers last week. I recall saying, “If I had a gun to my head and had to bet the side on this game, I would put a few bucks on the Packers.” But I talked myself off it and stayed with betting over the posted total in that game. How’d that work out for me?
Well, it worked out just fine for the Woodman as the Packers easily covered the 10-point impost in a 24-21 loss to the Niners. Now our man has only two weeks left to secure a .500 ATS record for the season and is looking to make it two covers in a row by investing heavily on the Lions against the 49ers. Great minds this alike.
As always, our man says, Bet the Farm, and make some cash on the Motor City Cats!
Woodman’s Pick: Lions +7 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
